_Mike_
Super Moderator
- Aug 10, 2009
- 33,210
- 32,028
- AFL Club
- Western Bulldogs
- Other Teams
- Tottenham, Montreal Canadiens
- Moderator
- #1
Team Changes for 2nd Qualifying Final
Zach Guthrie is confident he can hold his own on Friday night after getting a shock call-up to take on the Tigers.
The 19-year-old defender, who made his AFL debut against the Giants in round 15 and has since then made six more appearances at the highest level, seems likely to be handed a job on one of Richmond's small forwards. Geelong also welcomes back skipper Joel Selwood with Zach Guthrie to the mix at the expense of both Menzel and Buzza. Both should provide additional run through the middle to set up Geelong's FW50 entries.
Richmond
Richmond has made one change for Friday night’s qualifying final against Geelong at the MCG, with robust midfielder/forward Josh Caddy being recalled to the line-up after missing the last two matches of the home-and-away season because of a hamstring injury.
He has averaged 17.6 disposals per match in his 19 games, racking up a season-high 28 against Hawthorn at the MCG in Round 20.
The 24-year-old has scored a total of 17 goals, with a season-high return of four in that recent clash with the Hawks. Out of the Richmond side that defeated St Kilda by 41 points at the MCG in the final home-and-away round is young, running defender Oleg Markov, who has been omitted.
Caddy, who joined Richmond in last year’s AFL trade period, following a 71-game career with the Cats from 2013-16, has been a valuable contributor for the Tigers throughout this season.
Match Preview
The stakes could hardly be higher for two teams that have failed to make the most of their finals appearances in recent seasons. Richmond lost three straight elimination finals between 2013-15, while Geelong has failed to make a Grand Final from three qualifying final appearances in the past four years. The Cats will be favoured on the back of an imposing recent record between the teams, but the MCG will feel like home to the Tigers on Friday night. Their success starved fans will turn up in force for the club's first qualifying final since 2001, hoping to see them win their first since 1980. Fans will be treated to a battle between superstar midfielders Patrick Dangerfield and Dustin Martin.
Richmond coach Damien Hardwick has yet to win a final in his eight seasons, with the Tigers being eliminated in the opening weekend of the 2013, '14 and '15 finals. They botched a 26-point half-time lead to Carlton in 2013, found themselves down by seven goals at quarter-time a year later to Port Adelaide after opting to kick against the wind and squandered a two-goal half-time lead to North Melbourne in 2015. The Tigers haven't won a final since 2001. Can this team slay its mental demons? AFL great Dermott Brereton has already questioned whether the Tigers can handle the pressure should the contest be tight at three-quarter-time. And let's not forget the Tigers have lost 13 straight to the Cats – their last win coming in 2006. For Chris Scott, there was the 2011 flag in his first year in charge, but the Cats have since won only two of eight finals.
What happened when they last met?
The Cats, minus Joel Selwood, Tom Hawkins, Mark Blicavs and Mitch Duncan, prevailed by 14 points at Simonds Stadium in round 21. The major talking point was how Harry Taylor nullified the intercept marking and run of Alex Rance, the league's premier defender who last week was named All-Australian skipper. Taylor booted four goals and had the better of Rance in one-on-one marking contests, perhaps the only weakness in Rance's game. Taylor's fellow forwards were able to clear space. Taylor was also prepared to drag Rance deep into defence. With Hawkins back, the Tigers may look to send Rance to him, leaving David Astbury to handle Taylor, should the utility line up in attacking 50. Said Cats coach Chris Scott: "Rance probably had a bit of an off-day. I wouldn't be surprised if Harry is down there, Alex doesn't say to himself: 'I have got to play better this time'."
Paddy v Dustin?
They had moments on each other in round 21 but it was Cam Guthrie and Scott Selwood, the latter leading the league in pressure points per game, who went to Martin when he was in the midfield, and Tom Stewart when the star Tiger was sent forward. Martin was held to 21 disposals. It's now time for the Brownlow Medal fancy, who has more inside 50 entries than any player this season, while booting 32 goals, to show he is an elite September operator. Perhaps Blicavs, who has also had run-with roles, will get a chance on Martin as well. For the Tigers, they will need to find a way to handle Dangerfield, who is the league's best clearance and contested-ball winner, while also having booted a career-high 38 goals this season. There is speculation Dion Prestia will have time running with Dangerfield. But the latter will also go forward, where he can wreak havoc.
Match winners
Geelong
1. Sam Menegola is in top form and will be dangerous as a high half-forward, sitting corridor side at midfield stoppages. He has the tank to push up as an extra midfielder but also race back towards goal, kicking five goals in the past two weeks.
2. The Cats' defensive midfield match-ups will be crucial. Cameron Guthrie is the best option for Dustin Martin, with Tom Stewart the likely man when 'Dusty' is forward. Scott Selwood has a good record against Trent Cotchin.
3. Harry Taylor was the match-winner as a defensive forward on Alex Rance in round 21, kicking four goals. Tom Hawkins will play, but Taylor could still swing forward and try and get to Rance given the success of the match-up.
Richmond
1. Dustin Martin ran off the back of the square for a number of centre bounces in round 23. Watch for the Tigers to mix up his starting positions and use the superstar midfielder as a deep forward.
2. Dion Prestia plays his best football when he is working off an opponent. His best games have been in run-with roles this season and a match-up on Joel Selwood could suit the former Sun.
3. First-year midfielder Jack Graham has been a tackling machine in two games and watch for the hard-bodied 19-year-old to hit in hard at stoppages as a battering ram for his teammates.
Stats that matter
1. Geelong continues to dominate Richmond, winning the last 13 matches dating back to the Tigers' last win in round nine, 2006. The Tigers haven't defeated the Cats at the MCG since 1999.
2. Richmond finished the home and away season with the third-best defence, conceding 76 points a game and giving up 100 points in a game only twice.
3. There is a big difference in finals experience between these sides. Geelong has a combined 185 games compared to Richmond’s 65. Chris Scott has coached in 11 finals for five wins, while Damien Hardwick is winless from three finals.
4. Both teams were strong during the home and away season for marks inside 50, with Richmond ranked second (14 a game) and Geelong fourth (13.1).
5. Richmond's small forwards have been terrific this season but were shut down in round 21 by the Cats. Jason Castagna, Dan Butler and Daniel Rioli kicked just one goal between them, with Butler and Rioli sharing seven possessions.
6. Richmond ruckman Toby Nankervis ranks No.181 overall in the Schick AFL Player Ratings and has been on on a steep climb from No.525 at the start of the season. He'll go up against Geelong big man Zac Smith (No.63 overall), who had his measure in round 21.
What the "experts say"
Prediction:
Will the MCG light up with fireworks when Dangerfield and Martin take to the stage? In what teases to be a blockbuster on Richmond's home soil and with the black and yellow army supporting the Tigers this match should be anything but ordinary. The sensible approach is to tip Geelong on experience and capabilities but if we go by last year's finals series - anything is possible.
With an 80% chance of rain, this could be a low scoring slog from the onset
Richmond by 2
Forecast for the rest of Friday
Summary
Max 14
A few showers.
Possible rainfall: 1 to 3 mm
Chance of any rain: 80%
Melbourne area
Mostly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely during the afternoon. Possible hail during the afternoon. Winds west to southwesterly 25 to 40 km/h.
Last edited:
