Game Day - AFL 2018 SF: Hawthorn v Melbourne Friday 7:50pm AEST @MCG | BigFooty

Game Day AFL 2018 SF: Hawthorn v Melbourne Friday 7:50pm AEST @MCG

Discussion in 'AFL - The Australian Football League' started by Gralin, Sep 14, 2018 at 8:47 AM.

?

Who wins?

Poll closed Saturday at 8:47 AM.
  1. Hawthorn

    48 vote(s)
    29.4%
  2. Melbourne

    115 vote(s)
    70.6%
  1. Gralin

    Gralin Moderator

    Hawthorn
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    Hawthorn-vs-Melbourne.png
    upload_2018-9-14_8-46-41.png
    upload_2018-9-14_8-46-59.png
    SUMMARY
    The narrative about both sides shifted dramatically in the past week. Melbourne eliminated Geelong in its first finals appearance in 12 years, whereas Hawthorn's early competitiveness against Richmond subsided in a 31-point defeat. Many observers have since written the Hawks off – always a dangerous thing to do – and another loss would result in their second straight-sets exit in three years after a top-four finish. Melbourne, on the other hand, is aiming for back-to-back finals triumphs for the first time since 2000, when it last made a Grand Final. Hawthorn obliterated the Demons in the clearances last time, so the midfield battle at the feet of Ben McEvoy and Max Gawn will again be pivotal.

    WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Friday, September 14, 7.50pm AEST

    WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?

    Round four: Hawthorn 18.7 (115) d Melbourne 6.12 (48) at the MCG

    The Demons led by 21 points midway through the first quarter, but the Hawks kicked 16 of the last 17 goals – keeping Melbourne goalless in the second and third terms – to thump them by 67 points. Luke Breust slotted a game-high four goals, while Liam Shiels was relentless in the wet with 31 disposals and 14 tackles.

    LAST FIVE TIMES
    R4, 2018, Hawthorn 18.7 (115) d Melbourne 6.12 (48) at the MCG
    R7, 2017, Hawthorn 14.10 (94) d Melbourne 14.7 (91) at the MCG
    R20, 2016, Melbourne 17.8 (110) d Hawthorn 11.15 (81) at the MCG
    R11, 2016, Hawthorn 11.16 (82) d Melbourne 10.4 (64) at the MCG
    R7, 2015, Hawthorn 24.11 (155) d Melbourne 7.8 (50) at the MCG

    WHAT TO WATCH FOR

    Hawthorn

    1. Two ruckmen should be a necessity against the Demons. The Hawks did well to win the clearances despite Max Gawn racking up 66 hit-outs last time, but a Ben McEvoy-Jon Ceglar combination would keep him honest.

    2. How Luke Breust is used will be interesting. He charged off the back of the centre square at the first bounce in round four and kicked the opening goal in the same passage – one of his four for the day.

    3. Will the Hawks predict another clearances win over Melbourne, or could they spring a surprise and play Jack Gunston off half-back, where they typically generate so many of their scoring chances from?

    Melbourne

    1. The Demons haven't always opted for the obvious tagging option, but James Harmes – fresh from taking Joel Selwood's scalp again – seems certain to have the job on Tom Mitchell or Isaac Smith. Nathan Jones ran with Mitchell in round four.

    2. Sam Weideman's emergence, especially his enormous performance in his finals debut against Geelong, could see the Demons utilise him more inside 50 and play Tom McDonald a bit higher up the ground.

    3. Don't expect any eccentric Melbourne tactics in the middle, like the wingless set-up last time. The Dees have succeeded with more traditional structures in those situations since that day, and there seems little reason to go away from that.

    THE SIX POINTS

    1. The Hawks led by just eight points at half-time in round four before dominating the second half, kicking 11 goals to one, including seven to one in the final quarter. Luke Breust booted four goals and Tim O'Brien and Jarryd Roughead provided support with three each. Clayton Oliver had 28 disposals and 11 tackles for the Demons.

    2. Melbourne remains the highest-scoring team in 2018, averaging 103 points per game. But its winning score in last week's elimination final win over Geelong, 10.15 (75), was its lowest score since round 14. Hawthorn has kicked 88 points per match.

    3. The Hawks have dominated the Demons over the past decade, winning 15 of the past 16 contests, including 13 wins in a row between 2007 and 2016. Three of those victories were by 90-plus points.

    4. A big advantage for Melbourne could be in the centre, where it is the No.1-ranked centre clearance team, with the highest-ranked ruckman in Max Gawn. In contrast, Hawthorn has struggled and comes in equal-13th for centre clearances.

    5. It's been a long time since these teams last met in the finals. The 1990 elimination final at the MCG was the most recent, with the Demons winning by nine points. The Hawks lead 4-2 overall in the post-season.

    6. Melbourne tagger James Harmes' purple patch has him on the verge of cracking the top 100 in the Schick AFL Player Ratings. The Hawk he may run with, Brownlow Medal favourite Tom Mitchell, is No.19 overall.

    WHAT THE COACHES SAY

    Alastair Clarkson: "We know where we're at as a footy club. We think we've worked really hard, got ourselves a top-four position. We give ourselves some exposure to a couple of finals and hopefully some more. I've gone on record quite regularly saying we're going to need a hell of a lot of things to go right for us to be able to win it this year, but we're in there fighting hard." - Clarkson on his team's chances

    Simon Goodwin: "It was as disappointing a day as what you've seen from our club. I thought Hawthorn were terrific. They handled the conditions better. They structurally set up better. It certainly didn't reflect any of the way that we'd played for a while now, so that was disappointing and we went away from some of the things that have been really critical to us." - after the round four loss

    IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …
    It's rare to suggest Luke Breust has anything to prove, but he will be hurting from his performance last week against Richmond. The sharpshooter was responsible for the second of the Hawks' two elementary misses inside 20m in the first half, and mustered an equal season-low 11 disposals. Breust booted four goals against Melbourne in round four and a repeat showing would go a long way to a Hawthorn victory.

    PREDICTION: Melbourne by 20 points
    http://www.afl.com.au/match-centre/2018/25/haw-v-melb

    SQUIGGLE PREDICTS:
    Melbourne 71%
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 14, 2018 at 11:14 AM
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  2. Gysberts2Bate

    Gysberts2Bate Brownlow Medallist

    Melbourne
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    Most and least successful teams of the last 54 years go head to head. There's an overlap period of just three years between Hawthorn's first flag (1961) and our last one (1964). We won twelve flags prior to 1965, they've won 12 since then to go with their 1961 win.
     
  3. Balls In

    Balls In All Australian

    West Coast
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    May this be a brutal encounter.
     
  4. herculez09

    herculez09 Norm Smith Medallist

    West Coast
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    Melbourne by 8+ goals but praying for Hawthorn to scrape through.
     
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  5. WCE Wizard

    WCE Wizard Club Legend

    West Coast
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    Nope happy to play the Dees next week. You dont win flags without playing the best teams.
     
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  6. harrythetiger

    harrythetiger Summited Everest 30/9/17

    Richmond
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    I, for one, want this to be as bruise free as possible, such that the side who wins may produce a brutal game next week.
     
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  7. Off The Couch

    Off The Couch Hall of Famer

    Hawthorn
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    Well I’m hoping the hawks don’t get smashed as comprehensively as the Cats did last week and it’s all over by the end of the first but if I’m going tbh I expect that’s how it will play out.

    Will be interesting to see how the bottom six goes this week after being shell shocked last week and whether they are able to regroup and be a little more competitive. In saying that the old blokes were also pretty poor so there is room for improvement

    Demons easily and that wont be want the eagles want so that works for me.
     
  8. Gydafud

    Gydafud Premium Platinum

    Geelong
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    Melbourne in a canter.

    But I am often fooled by the form off the back of a QF loss and EF win.
     
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  9. Juzzk1d

    Juzzk1d Rookie

    Melbourne
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    Will be a lot closer than what people think. Hawthorn in these perfect conditions will look to play keeping's off and try and choke us from scoring heavily to keep them in the game and then look to turn it on in the third and attempt to ice the game in the 4th. Dees just need to bring the pressure capitalize in the clearances so we get first use and make Hawks chase us.
     
  10. VanDemonxx

    VanDemonxx All Australian

    Melbourne
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  11. MinerBoy

    MinerBoy Brownlow Medallist

    Hawthorn
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    Stratton and JOM are huge outs but are offset by the inclusions of Nicholls and Stevic.

    Hawks to win after the siren because #freekickhawthorn
     
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  12. Jivlain

    Jivlain Pollyanna's statistician

    Brisbane Lions
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  13. Jivlain

    Jivlain Pollyanna's statistician

    Brisbane Lions
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    Will Smith be taking it?
     
  14. MinerBoy

    MinerBoy Brownlow Medallist

    Hawthorn
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    Yep and he'll play on and snag it on the run after the siren.... goal will be allowed.
     
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  15. donkeypunchd

    donkeypunchd Club Legend

    Melbourne
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    Hawks to win, too much experience in these games and they matched up on us well earlier this year and in last year’s game. Expect them to win by 26 points unfortunately
     
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  16. demondavey

    demondavey Brownlow Medallist

    Melbourne
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    Still can’t see us getting up even with the outs they have. Duryea is no slouch. Just don’t see Hawthorn getting rolled two weeks running.
     
  17. Bradkli

    Bradkli Club Legend

    Hawthorn
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    Melbourne will win by 30+...Stratton is a big out but omera is huge. omera and Mitchell are hawthorn's only A-grade midfielders. Harmes will completely shut Mitchell out of the game. Melbourne's midfield is stacked with A-graders and their depth is far superior...they also have the best ruck in the game. They will have 60+ inside 50's.

    Hawthorn's team tonight has:
    Duryea
    Shoenmakers
    Mirra
    Howe
    Morrison
    Worpel
    Nash

    That's as bad a bottom 7 Hawthorn would have had in the past 10 years. You can't carry so many of those types of players in a final and expect to win. Gunston, Breust and Roughy will need to kick 12+ between them for Hawks to even have a sniff. After their performances combined last week, they will be lucky to kick 5 between them.

    Straight sets would be disappointing for the Hawks, but to finish top 4 and play two finals with this current list, I would say this season has been a huge success and massive overachievement... clarko is a genius.
     
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  18. HTPunter

    HTPunter Premiership Player

    North Melbourne
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    Hawks by 13.

    Will be too well-drilled I think. However I have tipped Melbourne in their last 2 games by only small margins so perhaps I`m underestimating them.
     
  19. AFDogs

    AFDogs Club Legend

    Western Bulldogs
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    Why do both Melbourne and Hawks supporters think their teams will lose?

    Have some confidence dammit (esp Melbourne fans). Too negative.
     
  20. Toump Ass

    Toump Ass Premium Platinum

    Melbourne
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    Has anyone tipped their own side yet?

    I'm also tipping the Hawks but hoping for a great game and no injuries to either side. Best of luck to everyone on the field!
     
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  21. Latour

    Latour Team Captain

    St Kilda
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    Pessimism as a buffer against the pain that arises when expectations/hopes are let down ;)
     
    Last edited: Sep 14, 2018 at 10:46 AM
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  22. 00Stinger

    00Stinger Duel Group 1 winner

    Melbourne
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    Melbourne by 6+ goals

    The only chance Hawthorn have is if we kill ourselves with shit goal kicking
     
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  23. Sir_Loin

    Sir_Loin Premium Platinum

    Richmond
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    Will find out of this media hyped kicking game that the hawks couldn’t play last week because of the weather is the real thing. I’m expecting laser precision ball movement with the pill never hitting the deck and a free flowing goal fest- shoot out. Hawks by 60 points given the conditions.
     
  24. MinerBoy

    MinerBoy Brownlow Medallist

    Hawthorn
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    Hawks by 71 after the Demons stage a last quarter resistance.
     
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  25. Blood Bomber

    Blood Bomber Debutant

    Essendon
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    Melbourne by 43pts.


    Go Dees!
     
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