Analysis AFL 2019 punting thread

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
44,711
81,842
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
Interested in discussions/input on footy punting.

Always bet wisely folks, and if you have issues with punting then you can contact the gambling help line here:

https://www.gamblinghelponline.org.au/

2019 AFL punting

Goal: To profit one cartoon of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 1

Multiple bet 1 (x $14)

Collingwood -8.5 @ $1.90
StKilda head to head @ $1.26
Adelaide head to head @ $1.36
North -1.5 @ $1.95

= $88.90 return

Multiple bet 2 (x $6)

Collingwood -8.5 @ $1.90
StKilda head to head @ $1.26
Adelaide head to head @ $1.36
North 40+ @ $6.40

= $125.00 return
 
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Callums_Guns

All Australian
Suspended
Feb 26, 2019
854
708
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Phila 76ers, Mt Buller Demons
Conservative with Kangas by 40+ is that a typo

We have a punters cub at work and combine AFL / NRL try to use options which allows cash out
 

Harris 10

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 8, 2004
9,213
13,957
hgfhkagk
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Interested in discussions/input on footy punting

Goal: To profit one cartoon of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 1

Multiple bet 1 (x $10)

Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.20
StKilda head to head @ $1.26
Adelaide head to head @ $1.36
North 1-39 @ $2.50

= $94.30 return

Multiple bet 2 (x $10)

Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.20
StKilda head to head @ $1.26
Adelaide head to head @ $1.36
North 40+ @ $7.00

= $263.90 return
Melbourne at the line of -21 is a good bet, I think they’ll take Port to the cleaners.
 

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Event Horizon

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 24, 2002
19,073
7,467
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Arsenal, Victory
Interested in discussions/input on footy punting.

Always bet wisely folks, and if you have issues with punting then you can contact the gambling help line here:

https://www.gamblinghelponline.org.au/

2019 AFL punting

Goal: To profit one cartoon of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 1

Multiple bet 1 (x $10)

Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.20
StKilda head to head @ $1.26
Adelaide head to head @ $1.36
North 1-39 @ $2.50

= $94.30 return

Multiple bet 2 (x $10)

Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.20
StKilda head to head @ $1.26
Adelaide head to head @ $1.36
North 40+ @ $7.00

= $263.90 return
Is there any real value in the St Kilda and Adelaide head to head bets?
 

Event Horizon

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 24, 2002
19,073
7,467
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Arsenal, Victory
I reckon they're sure things and they turn $1 in to $1.71. Collingwood & North are my serious multipliers.
Agreed, but traditionally round 1 has a couple of absolute shockers every year, and those sure things which provide little value can sometimes ruin a great multi. Wouldn't surprise me if Gold Coast win their only game for the season in round 1. ;)
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
44,711
81,842
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
Agreed, but traditionally round 1 has a couple of absolute shockers every year, and those sure things which provide little value can sometimes ruin a great multi. Wouldn't surprise me if Gold Coast win their only game for the season in round 1. ;)
We'll see how we go mate (made some alterations).

I don't reckon Adelaide are going to be the improver people reckon, but Hawthorn have been smashed injury, and I was impressed with StKildas JLT series.

Collingwood & Geelong could put on a centre clearance goal feast, but the pies will do them in general play on the MCG. The G is not going to be as easy to defend for Geelong's defence, compared to the narrow confines of the Corio bowling alley.

AS for us, we need rooting with a pineapple if we can't get up at the line (-8.5), and I have had a little go at a blowout.

North by >1.5 and I pocket $68.90 profit @ 6.35/1(= a slab in the fridge and $28.90 back in the pool), and if we get up by 40+ and it's $193.90 profit @ 10.7/1.
 
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shintemaster

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 24, 2002
14,424
23,031
Ponderama
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I never bet on North games, too much emotion involved
I'm the opposite - I rarely bet on other games because I know my team better than any other. You'd be amazed how often I've made massive money on us at 39.5+ in games that others didn't even rate us a chance. I was off my head the day we beat Adelaide in Tas by about quarter time. It was a weekend of upsets and (every single game bar one from memory went to the non favourite) and I had us at the margin plus a multi with 5 other teams. Nice weekend away but horrible hangover.
 

Too_many_talls

Team Captain
Apr 20, 2005
524
451
AFL Club
North Melbourne
North I don't think are great value this week - surprised we are favourites.

This week tends to be one where there will be some upsets, although Hawks are the only longshot that look a chance ($3.40).

Going for smaller upsets...

$20 on dogs on the money line ($2.25) over Syd, Lions at +9.5 (1.90) over WC.

$4.26 all up = $85.40.
 
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