Analysis AFL 2019 punting thread

Quintero

Team Captain
May 16, 2019
540
588
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
River Plate
Neds have the back up bonus bet thing.

I feel your best crack at glory is to scan the form for 6 horse fields with 2 horses under $10, and back the 2nd favourite.

How can you possibly lose?

Multi today on Bet365 :

MR3: 15 @ $4
SR3: 12 @ $4.40
SR6: 3 @ $3.75
Kangas @ $1.93

$10 @ $127.38
 

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SpiderBurton22

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2012
7,268
19,485
Caught in the web.
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I don't rate it for football judgement, it's just utilised in this instance as numbers evaluated against form, opposition, conditions and value.
Fair enough, I haven't played it for a few years.

If it is the Herald Sun Supercoach point's, I don't trust it, from a punting perspective, as they change the weighting of points depending on the game situation.

I'd be more comfortable If it's the other Fantasy game where points are allocated purely on kicks, handballs, tackles etc.
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
47,021
87,089
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
Ruckmen are considerably advantaged.

Ultimately, how they rate these points isn't important in this context, it's about how it is applied to identify value bets.
 

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Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
47,021
87,089
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
Thereabouts last week, but no payoff.

Round 18

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $71.72
Betting allocation per round: $20

Multi:

Freo v Sydney (neither to score 90+): $1.58 - Dour sides averaging 76 and 80 points respectively. Game @ 6:10. Storms today & showers tomorrow.
Carlton (score 90+ only): $1.60 - Playing Gold Coast at Etihad, averaging 87 in their last 4 matches & the Suns haven't posted 90+ all year.
North v Brisbane (either by 29 or less): $1.60
Neale (30+): $1.60
Dunkley (30+): $1.80
Gagf (30+): $1.40

Value: $16.30

Payout: $326.20
 

Sillygit

Team Captain
Mar 6, 2019
350
818
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Thereabouts last week, but no payoff.

Round 18

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $71.72
Betting allocation per round: $20

Multi:

Freo v Sydney (neither to score 90+): $1.58 - Dour sides averaging 76 and 80 points respectively. Game @ 6:10. Storms today & showers tomorrow.
Carlton (score 90+ only): $1.60 - Playing Gold Coast at Etihad, averaging 87 in their last 4 matches & the Suns haven't posted 90+ all year.
North v Brisbane (either by 29 or less): $1.60
Neale (30+): $1.60
Dunkley (30+): $1.80
Gagf (30+): $1.40

Value: $16.30

Payout: $326.20
I like that freo sydney one, seems almost garaunteed even without the weather.
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
47,021
87,089
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
Round 20

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $91.72
Betting allocation per round: $20

Multi:

GWS win + over 159.5: $2.40 (bet of the round)
Collingwood score over 90+ only: $1.45
Ben King goal: $1.40
Treloar 30+: $1.35
T. Thomas goal: $1.50
North v Hawthorn either by 29 or less: $1.48
Richmond score over 90+ only: $1.72

= $25.11

Payout: $502.20
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
47,021
87,089
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
Those looking for a safer outlay could look at the following:

GWS win/total score over 159.5 @ $2.40 (TAB) is my bet of the round. (They have cracked 159.5 in 5 out of 6 at the showgrounds, tallied 152 in the only game they missed out, and average 179.3 per match there this year. Weather forecast is fine with no rain)

Good value multipliers:

T. Thomas goal: $1.50 (Hit the scoreboard in every match this season, and goaled in 8 of his last 9 games)
Richmond score over 90+ only: $1.72 (Richmond have broken 90 in their last 5 matches, Melbourne have broken it once in the last 8 rounds & conceded 90+ in 6 out of those same 8 matches)

Bundle them up for a $6.19 return on the dollar outlay. ;)
 
Last edited:

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
47,021
87,089
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
Those looking for a safer outlay could look at the following:

GWS win/total score over 159.5 @ $2.40 (TAB) is my bet of the round. (They have cracked 159.5 in 5 out of 6 at the showgrounds, tallied 152 in the only game they missed out, and average 179.3 per match there this year. Weather forecast is fine with no rain)

Richmond score over 90+ only: $1.72 (Richmond have broken 90 in their last 5 matches, Melbourne have broken it once in the last 8 rounds & conceded 90+ in 6 out of those same 8 matches)
Did nicely.

Round 21

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $111.72
Betting allocation per round: $20

Multi:

North +22.5 @ $1.90
GWS 90+ only @ $2.60
Carlton + 34.5/under 153.5 @ $3.20
West Coast/over 168.5 @ $2.25

= $10.39

Payout: $207.80
 

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