Analysis AFL 2019 punting thread

LuvtheKangas

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 11, 2006
15,017
30,200
Bottom of the ladder
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I think the expected value is 99.9% of the time superior to what Sportsbet etc offer.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app
True, probably even 100%, but that's the way betting agencies (especially casinos) have to work and it's reasonable. What's annoying is how far below expected value they offer for cash outs.
 

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giantroo

Bleeding Blue and White
Sep 23, 2005
62,931
111,647
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Arsenal, Chicago Bulls
'Cash out': Neale's advice for gutsy punter

Tim Michell

Lachie Neale says he’d “cash out” if he was the punter who stands to win more than $50,000 if the Brisbane Lions star takes home the Brownlow Medal.
Neale said he had been made aware of Jordan Robertson’s longstanding multi bet, which needed Jeremy Cameron to win the Coleman Medal and Neale to claim the Brownlow Medal.

The $50 bet at 1071-1 odds has attracted plenty of attention on Twitter after Robertson shared a screen shot.


Robertson placed the wager on February 22 and his latest cash out offer from Sportsbet was $9817.50.

Asked whether he was aware of the bet at a press conference this week, Neale said: “I have seen that. I don’t think I am allowed to talk about betting. I’d be cashing out. I don’t think I’ll win the Brownlow.”

Neale described the bet as “pretty gutsy”.


After Ben Brown kicked 10 goals against Port Adelaide in Round 22 to overtake Cameron in the Coleman ace, Robertson tweeted: “Not the best thing to wake up to on a Sunday morning. I still stand by my decision not to cash out and take the risk.”

He has been offered $7046, $7854, $10,471 and $4869 in recent months to cash out.

Even Herald Sun chief football reporter Mark Robinson has got behind Robertson, tweeting: “The punting world is with you mate”.

Neale said he expected one of the other favourites, who include Patrick Dangerfield, Patrick Cripps and Marcus Bontempelli, to win the Brownlow.

"I’ve heard the talk and a lot of my mates send me messages about that stuff. But I am certainly channelling all my energy into the next few weeks," he said.
 

SpiderBurton22

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2012
7,728
21,188
Caught in the web.
AFL Club
North Melbourne
'Cash out': Neale's advice for gutsy punter

Tim Michell

Lachie Neale says he’d “cash out” if he was the punter who stands to win more than $50,000 if the Brisbane Lions star takes home the Brownlow Medal.
Neale said he had been made aware of Jordan Robertson’s longstanding multi bet, which needed Jeremy Cameron to win the Coleman Medal and Neale to claim the Brownlow Medal.

The $50 bet at 1071-1 odds has attracted plenty of attention on Twitter after Robertson shared a screen shot.


Robertson placed the wager on February 22 and his latest cash out offer from Sportsbet was $9817.50.

Asked whether he was aware of the bet at a press conference this week, Neale said: “I have seen that. I don’t think I am allowed to talk about betting. I’d be cashing out. I don’t think I’ll win the Brownlow.”

Neale described the bet as “pretty gutsy”.


After Ben Brown kicked 10 goals against Port Adelaide in Round 22 to overtake Cameron in the Coleman ace, Robertson tweeted: “Not the best thing to wake up to on a Sunday morning. I still stand by my decision not to cash out and take the risk.”

He has been offered $7046, $7854, $10,471 and $4869 in recent months to cash out.

Even Herald Sun chief football reporter Mark Robinson has got behind Robertson, tweeting: “The punting world is with you mate”.

Neale said he expected one of the other favourites, who include Patrick Dangerfield, Patrick Cripps and Marcus Bontempelli, to win the Brownlow.

"I’ve heard the talk and a lot of my mates send me messages about that stuff. But I am certainly channelling all my energy into the next few weeks," he said.
Sporstbet are reading this and won't raise the cash out value now
 

LuvtheKangas

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 11, 2006
15,017
30,200
Bottom of the ladder
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Not sure y anyone would ever cash out? Why put the bet on in the first place if u r going to cash out?
Here's a good example of why you should always consider cashing out in multis:

 

EDFL follower

All Australian
Apr 16, 2007
936
816
Warragul
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Here's a good example of why you should always consider cashing out in multis:

Nice story if its true but you will still always get ripped off if you cash out. You will always be paid unders. Not only that but u r already getting ripped off by taking multis as they take a cut out of each leg of you multi so the odds you get are horrendous. The highest margins are made by the bookies on multis!
 

LuvtheKangas

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 11, 2006
15,017
30,200
Bottom of the ladder
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Nice story if its true but you will still always get ripped off if you cash out. You will always be paid unders. Not only that but u r already getting ripped off by taking multis as they take a cut out of each leg of you multi so the odds you get are horrendous. The highest margins are made by the bookies on multis!
Cutting out early and taking unders (but still a big profit) >>>>> holding to the end and losing 100% if the bet eventually fails.
 

LuvtheKangas

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 11, 2006
15,017
30,200
Bottom of the ladder
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Sure but why put that leg on in the first place if u r going to cash out when it gets to that point?
I suspect you don't really understand how it all works.

If you think John Smith is over-priced to win the Zownlow Medal at 25-1, have a bet at that price. If he comes in to 8-1 after a string of good perfomances, but Bill Jones and Barry McGee are also looking good and holding their prices of 3-1 and 4-1, then you have created value due to the shift in John's price. Take the payout because you don't necessarily think John will win, just that the initial odds were good. You made money on being right about that.
 

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EDFL follower

All Australian
Apr 16, 2007
936
816
Warragul
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I suspect you don't really understand how it all works.

If you think John Smith is over-priced to win the Zownlow Medal at 25-1, have a bet at that price. If he comes in to 8-1 after a string of good perfomances, but Bill Jones and Barry McGee are also looking good and holding their prices of 3-1 and 4-1, then you have created value due to the shift in John's price. Take the payout because you don't necessarily think John will win, just that the initial odds were good. You made money on being right about that.
If u back something at 25-1 and they come into 8-1 that’s a great bet but u still shouldn’t take it in a multi. You should back it straight out initially then lay it when it gets to 8-1 which is a form of cashing out but u will always get ripped off if u take a multi
 

hilly

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 27, 2000
10,594
12,892
Frank Grey Smith Bar
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Triple M commentary team
I think one should reassess the probabilities of the 25-1 shot winning the Brownlow once repriced at 8-1 (and versus what the cash out offer is).

If you have the capital, laying on BetFair is a better way to cash out.
 

LuvtheKangas

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 11, 2006
15,017
30,200
Bottom of the ladder
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Snake_Baker Punting via Twitter

Here's my punting for the week

$50 Multi
Gaff most disposals @ $2.50
Geel v Coll neither score 90+ @ $1.58
Stewart 20+ @ $1.40
McCluggage 20+ @ $1.40
Total: $7.74
Collect: $387

Gaff has already saluted.
Stewart :heavycheck: the under 90 scores :heavycheck:, only needs McLuggage to have 20 for the nice collect.
 

hilly

Brownlow Medallist
Nov 27, 2000
10,594
12,892
Frank Grey Smith Bar
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Triple M commentary team
Good day today

Pro: Green Bay at $2.60, Collingwood straight out at $2.24, same-game multi of Pies into Sidebottom over 24.5 into Sidebottom over 29.5 for about $7.35
Cons: Same game multi of Cats wire to wire into Cats HTFT into something else, first goalscorer De Goey, first goalscorer Hawkin
 

giantroo

Bleeding Blue and White
Sep 23, 2005
62,931
111,647
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Arsenal, Chicago Bulls
Snake_Baker Punting via Twitter

Here's my punting for the week

$50 Multi
Gaff most disposals @ $2.50
Geel v Coll neither score 90+ @ $1.58
Stewart 20+ @ $1.40
McCluggage 20+ @ $1.40
Total: $7.74
Collect: $387

Gaff has already saluted.
Snake salutes.
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
49,279
94,225
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
Okay

Multi: $50

Stewart 20+ @ $1.40
Martin goal @ $1.40
Richmond/over 152.5 @ $2.40
Josh Kelly 25+ @ $1.35
Coll/GWS (either under 30 or less) @ $1.38

Total: $8.76

Return: $438.00
 

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