Analysis AFL 2019 punting thread

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Passmore

Brownlow Medallist
May 22, 2001
12,340
28,714
The Gasometer Wing
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Norf
Our boy Ziebell running in R4 at Ascot today. The toppy us pretty smart but let's hope the captain gives us a good sight.

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Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Suspended
Apr 24, 2013
66,245
125,198
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
I must get around to tallying up how I went over the season.

I think I broke even, or lost slightly, although I would have consistently won if I didn't multi.

Might need to change strategies and look at a cumulative approach next season.
 

ferball

Premium Platinum
Jul 24, 2015
18,553
35,225
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I think I broke even, or lost slightly, although I would have consistently won if I didn't multi.

Might need to change strategies and look at a cumulative approach next season.
Don't bet anymore but multis seem to be based on the idea of the Fortune on Four gambling system invented (afaik) by Graham Sharp who published a betting system called System of Laws in the 80s. He added the fortune on four, which was simply a betting plan where you pick four horses plow your winnings back in over the course of the four events and if you're still in after the third you take out your initial stake and sometimes 100% on top of it.

System of laws seems to work but it has about 15 rules (the first being place bets only) and its effectiveness drops off rapidly if you miss one or two. After three its essentially pointless and you may as well guess or follow your normal routine.

I'd actually be using it if I could find the copy I had (anyone got it PM me please) but I lost a chunk of the rules years ago and its too much of PITA to work it out from scratch. Its basically a risk management strategy that identifies how to minimise the variables that effect a race but I think Sharp did some work on which variables were influential and which weren't. As I said there are about 15 and their effectiveness is decreased every time you ignore one to the point it doesn't work very well if even only a few are missing. It doesn't give big wins but steadily accumulates small amounts so anything that interferes with a 90% + success rate will stop it being effective and lose you money.

I'm sure most of you don't care about all that but anyone has the book/system I'd love to see a copy again.
 

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