Analysis AFL 2019 punting thread

[Snake_Baker]

Collingwoods efficiency to talent output is a concern.

Round 1's $20 down the gurgler.

 

[Val Keating]

Collingwoods efficiency to talent output is a concern.

Round 1's $20 down the gurgler.

Their skills were terrible last night.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Their skills were terrible last night.

I wasn't too impressed with the way they were coached either. They didn't adapt to 6-6-6 at all.

 

[Sillygit]

Not a great start to the year.

 

[DaveyBoy123]

Best bet of the day: never bet on rd-1 AFL

 

[Val Keating]

Round 1 throws a few curveballs. One of the harder betting rounds imo.

Still can’t help myself though, don’t mind Collingwood 40+ into West Coast 1-39 into the Dogs win

$20 @$19.68
$393.60 collect

*ing Collingwood

 

[Snake_Baker]

Done my $20.

Looks like I am drinking water this week.

 

[Too_many_talls]

North I don't think are great value this week - surprised we are favourites.

This week tends to be one where there will be some upsets, although Hawks are the only longshot that look a chance ($3.40).

Going for smaller upsets...

$20 on dogs on the money line ($2.25) over Syd, Lions at +9.5 (1.90) over WC.

$4.26 all up = $85.40.

You're welcome.

Couldn't quite bring myself to bet Hawthorn as well - that really would have paid.

 

[Harris 10]

I’m out without giving a yelp.

 

[shintemaster]

Done ok. I'm sitting on a 4 way multi - Geelong, PA, Dogs, North - $9. If North do the right thing I'll be up around $500. Almost threw Brisbane in there as well but thought that would have been greedy... spewing.

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

Wouldn't back any more head to head this weekend. Too unpredictable.

Easiest money this weekend is under total points as every game has gone under the line so far. Rule changes haven't resulted in higher scoring. GWS v Ess could be high scoring today, but the other games will likely be unders too. Gold Coast v St Kilda line is 180 total points. No chance that happens.

The other thing to look out for early is player props based on JLT form and positional changes. Naughton was 3.40 to kick two goals last night because he'd been playing back. Guys who have had big JLTs are good to back in round 1.

Look at disposals in JLT vs time on ground too. Anthony Miles had 21 touches from 55% TOG in JLT 2 vs the Dogs (not so good in JLT 1 - tagging role?). His line is 21 touches. Fiorini had 26 touches in both JLT games and is 2.30 for 25+ today.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

No winning bets in 3 pages, remind me not to take any tips from this thread

 

[Snake_Baker]

 

[shintemaster]

I cashed out 5 mins into yesterday's game against Fremantle. Smart choice. Unfortunate that the team also did the same thing.

 

[Snake_Baker]

2019 AFL punting

Goal: To profit one cartoon of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $440
Lost: $20
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 2

Went without a carton this week after last weeks round of results caught me out, so I have taken a different approach.

I will commence with micro managing the task this week.

Bet: $20 on Jack Reiwoldt kicking 2+ goals tonight @ $1.50 for a $30 return.

If it salutes I will look to reinvest the winnings in order to attain $60+ dollars for the round.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Bet: $50 2 leg multi. Jack Riewoldt 2+ goals @1.62 into Lachie Neale 30+ disposals @1.45 = $2.34

 

[Snake_Baker]

B......... Lachie Neale 30+ disposals @1.45 = $2.34

Stole my thunder there rf8.

I'll definitely be jumping on that if the odds hold.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

Stole my thunder there rf8.

I'll definitely be jumping on that if the odds hold.

Haven’t had a flutter for a few weeks. Got a message off sports to deposit 50 and they’ll match it in bonus bets. So this is my bonus bet for the round! Have to turn it over with odds of over 1.50. So this seems like decent enough odds

 

[Snake_Baker]

Bet: $20 on Jack Reiwoldt kicking 2+ goals tonight @ $1.50 for a $30 return.

Pull your finger out you s**t campaigner!

 

[Snake_Baker]

Bet: $20 on Jack Reiwoldt kicking 2+ goals tonight @ $1.50 for a $30 return.

Dear Jack,

I hope you get crabs INSIDE your ball sack.

Regards,

Snake.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

That’s why I don’t punt

 

[rickety]

Had my last dollar on the pies by over 40 at $7. I now have a few more last dollars

 

[Sillygit]

forgot to post my multis, safe to say the first one was too trusting of richmonds backline and just leave it at that.

next is essendon 16+ @ 1.65, freo @ 1.28, brisbane @1.95, hawthorn @ 1.38 = $10 @ 5.68

needless to say, happy to lose 10 dollars but willing to put 10 dollars on Brad not doing enough at the selection table or getting a functional game plan going. Plus I've probably bet too heavy on favourites like last week anyway so yea.

 

[muttley45]

$20 on 1st goal Shaun Higgins @ 19-1

 

[Too_many_talls]

Had a quick look now, not a lot that I like but once again the only value I see is the bravedogs (again).

Will take Port into West Coast into the Bulldogs line (-19.5) over the Hawks

$20 at $3.18