Analysis AFL 2019 punting thread

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danj

Club Legend
Feb 12, 2007
2,576
2,312
Peoples Republic of Fitzroy
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Liverpool, Fitzroy
Interesting on TAB North have come in from $3:50 to $3 over the past 4 days, I would have thought given our respective ladder positions 14th v 4th and the drama with the coach that we would have been $5 easy, will wait until selection and see where it goes from there.
 

SpiderBurton22

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2012
6,864
18,613
Caught in the web.
AFL Club
North Melbourne
After a couple of lean weeks I'm going to mix it up with the World Cup.

$100 invested for a $160 return.

$20 on England to beat the Saffers/NZ over the Lankans/Aussies to beat Afganistan/ Swans at the line +32.5 @ $4.01

Swans have a good record down at GMHBA and are back to playing that tight, tagging, congested game.
 
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Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
44,711
81,842
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $89.38
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 11

$20 multi

Kelly (30+) $1.75
Cameron most goals v Sexton $1.40
GWS (head to head)/over 156.5 points total $1.95
De Goey most goals v Walters $1.65

(Price $7.88)

Return: $157.66

I reckon GWS (head to head)/over 156.5 points at $1.95 is the best value I have seen this year. Add it to all your bets.
 

Quintero

Team Captain
May 16, 2019
312
305
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
River Plate
Have had some luck using my Ladbrokes boosts on First 4's.

Say it's a 15 horse field, take field into field into field into field for 1% and with the boost it goes to 2% with a particular focus on Saturdays (using boosts from early in the week) scratchings are refunded, but I'm yet to find another bet that gives you as much bang for your buck.

Focusing on jackpot races also works very well.

As for this week, sneaky $10 multi on North ($3.80) into Carlton ($2.80) into Steve Smith most runs in WC @150-1

Great thread btw!
 

LuvtheKangas

Brownlow Medallist
Mar 11, 2006
14,396
27,697
Bottom of the ladder
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Have had some luck using my Ladbrokes boosts on First 4's.

Say it's a 15 horse field, take field into field into field into field for 1% and with the boost it goes to 2% with a particular focus on Saturdays (using boosts from early in the week) scratchings are refunded, but I'm yet to find another bet that gives you as much bang for your buck.

Focusing on jackpot races also works very well.

As for this week, sneaky $10 multi on North ($3.80) into Carlton ($2.80) into Steve Smith most runs in WC @150-1

Great thread btw!
That First 4's one is an interesting concept. Am I right in saying the bet costs about $328 before scratching refunds? Would need to be a >$17,000 dividend to pay off (after boost to 2%), wouldn't it?
 

Quintero

Team Captain
May 16, 2019
312
305
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
River Plate
That First 4's one is an interesting concept. Am I right in saying the bet costs about $328 before scratching refunds? Would need to be a >$17,000 dividend to pay off (after boost to 2%), wouldn't it?
Correct LTK, and you don't want it to jackpot as that obviously effects your dividend.

In terms of EV, I'm confident you can't find better.

It breaks down to average roughly $200 a week profit over the last few years.

Note, they have shut down my account a few times, removed or limited the boosts, so I just opened up another one under my mrs's name and make a habit of chucking a few unlikely multis and quaddies to extend the life of the account.
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
44,711
81,842
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
Had another flutter with a multi this week (not included in this thing), after doing nicely with it last week.

Higgins 30+($1.70)
Brown & Lynch to tie on goals ($5.00)
Richmond 1-24 ($3.10)
GWS (head to head)/over 156.5 points total ($1.95 )

Value: $51.38

Slapped a fiver on it.
 

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mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
1,917
2,860
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Liking Brown to run riot. Also think North are a huge chance in this match. Colonial suits us, it does not suit Richmond.

Don't give me this 'we don't have the talent' nonsense. Whether or not it was Brads's fault, we've been under-performing bigtime.

This match could mark a turning point.

Last week our team's average games played was 110. We are fielding the same team this week.

Richmond's team will average about 98 and that's including the addition of Cotchin.

Ivan Soldo to ruck against Goldstein? The guy has played two AFL games in two seasons for a reason.

Goldstein to SMESH HIM and give our boys first use.

Our weakness has been centre clearance goals. Tonight it will be our strength.

I got a couple multis on, including this:

North 40+
Brown 4+
Larkey AGS
Thomas AGS
Zurhaar AGS

@58

Also wanted to include a midfielder for 30+ but there was no value in the market.

If Cunnington is at the fall of the ball though he could go near 40.
 

SpiderBurton22

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 17, 2012
6,864
18,613
Caught in the web.
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $89.38
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 11

$20 multi

Kelly (30+) $1.75
Cameron most goals v Sexton $1.40
GWS (head to head)/over 156.5 points total $1.95
De Goey most goals v Walters $1.65

(Price $7.88)

Return: $157.66

I reckon GWS (head to head)/over 156.5 points at $1.95 is the best value I have seen this year. Add it to all your bets.

Nice punting. 👍
 

Snake_Baker

L'enfant terrible
Apr 24, 2013
44,711
81,842
inside your head
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
The Unicornia Reactants
It certainly jumped off the screen at me J&P.:thumbsu:

I'd also like to appeal to our resident punting community to consider contributing a portion of any winnings to the GR laptop promotion (25%?).:thumbsu:
 
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