Analysis AFL 2019 punting thread

Apr 24, 2013
81,024
153,170
Arden Street Hill
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Essendon Lawn Bowls Club
Interested in discussions/input on footy punting.

Always bet wisely folks, and if you have issues with punting then you can contact the gambling help line here:

https://www.gamblinghelponline.org.au/

2019 AFL punting

Goal: To profit one cartoon of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 1

Multiple bet 1 (x $14)

Collingwood -8.5 @ $1.90
StKilda head to head @ $1.26
Adelaide head to head @ $1.36
North -1.5 @ $1.95

= $88.90 return

Multiple bet 2 (x $6)

Collingwood -8.5 @ $1.90
StKilda head to head @ $1.26
Adelaide head to head @ $1.36
North 40+ @ $6.40

= $125.00 return
 
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Apr 24, 2013
81,024
153,170
Arden Street Hill
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Essendon Lawn Bowls Club
Conservative with Kangas by 40+ is that a typo

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Jun 8, 2004
13,673
30,236
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Interested in discussions/input on footy punting

Goal: To profit one cartoon of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 1

Multiple bet 1 (x $10)

Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.20
StKilda head to head @ $1.26
Adelaide head to head @ $1.36
North 1-39 @ $2.50

= $94.30 return

Multiple bet 2 (x $10)

Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.20
StKilda head to head @ $1.26
Adelaide head to head @ $1.36
North 40+ @ $7.00

= $263.90 return

Melbourne at the line of -21 is a good bet, I think they’ll take Port to the cleaners.
 
Apr 24, 2013
81,024
153,170
Arden Street Hill
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Essendon Lawn Bowls Club
Melbourne at the line of -21 is a good bet, I think they’ll take Port to the cleaners.


I do like the Dees, but I see this as a bit of a danger game betting wise, due to Port's ability to get on a burst and score heavily & quickly.
 
Jun 8, 2004
13,673
30,236
Melbourne
AFL Club
North Melbourne
I do like the Dees, but I see this as a bit of a danger game betting wise, due to Port's ability to get on a burst and score heavily & quickly.

No Wines, Dixon, Hartlett and potentially Ryder. On top of losing Polec and Wingard.
4 1st gamers away from home, it’s a big task.
 
Interested in discussions/input on footy punting.

Always bet wisely folks, and if you have issues with punting then you can contact the gambling help line here:

https://www.gamblinghelponline.org.au/

2019 AFL punting

Goal: To profit one cartoon of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 1

Multiple bet 1 (x $10)

Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.20
StKilda head to head @ $1.26
Adelaide head to head @ $1.36
North 1-39 @ $2.50

= $94.30 return

Multiple bet 2 (x $10)

Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.20
StKilda head to head @ $1.26
Adelaide head to head @ $1.36
North 40+ @ $7.00

= $263.90 return
Is there any real value in the St Kilda and Adelaide head to head bets?
 
Apr 24, 2013
81,024
153,170
Arden Street Hill
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Essendon Lawn Bowls Club
Is there any real value in the St Kilda and Adelaide head to head bets?

I reckon they're sure things and they turn $1 in to $1.71. Collingwood & North are my serious multipliers.
 
I reckon they're sure things and they turn $1 in to $1.71. Collingwood & North are my serious multipliers.
Agreed, but traditionally round 1 has a couple of absolute shockers every year, and those sure things which provide little value can sometimes ruin a great multi. Wouldn't surprise me if Gold Coast win their only game for the season in round 1. ;)
 
Apr 24, 2013
81,024
153,170
Arden Street Hill
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Other Teams
Essendon Lawn Bowls Club
Agreed, but traditionally round 1 has a couple of absolute shockers every year, and those sure things which provide little value can sometimes ruin a great multi. Wouldn't surprise me if Gold Coast win their only game for the season in round 1. ;)

We'll see how we go mate (made some alterations).

I don't reckon Adelaide are going to be the improver people reckon, but Hawthorn have been smashed injury, and I was impressed with StKildas JLT series.

Collingwood & Geelong could put on a centre clearance goal feast, but the pies will do them in general play on the MCG. The G is not going to be as easy to defend for Geelong's defence, compared to the narrow confines of the Corio bowling alley.

AS for us, we need rooting with a pineapple if we can't get up at the line (-8.5), and I have had a little go at a blowout.

North by >1.5 and I pocket $68.90 profit @ 6.35/1(= a slab in the fridge and $28.90 back in the pool), and if we get up by 40+ and it's $193.90 profit @ 10.7/1.
 
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I never bet on North games, too much emotion involved

I'm the opposite - I rarely bet on other games because I know my team better than any other. You'd be amazed how often I've made massive money on us at 39.5+ in games that others didn't even rate us a chance. I was off my head the day we beat Adelaide in Tas by about quarter time. It was a weekend of upsets and (every single game bar one from memory went to the non favourite) and I had us at the margin plus a multi with 5 other teams. Nice weekend away but horrible hangover.
 
North I don't think are great value this week - surprised we are favourites.

This week tends to be one where there will be some upsets, although Hawks are the only longshot that look a chance ($3.40).

Going for smaller upsets...

$20 on dogs on the money line ($2.25) over Syd, Lions at +9.5 (1.90) over WC.

$4.26 all up = $85.40.
 
The thing with us is we are constantly underrated and we always pays overs.

Good money to be made on us.

Agree with this - only bet on us a few times a year but at very good odds because weight of money invariably favours our opponents.
 
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