Analysis AFL 2019 punting thread

[SpiderBurton22]

GWS @ $1.90 (-3.5)

Won both matches at the Adelaide oval last year.

Great value at that points spread.

Yep. I haven't finalised mine for the week, but that will be the base with a few others to pump up the value

 

[D23D]

GWS @ $1.90 (-3.5)

Won both matches at the Adelaide oval last year.

Great value at that points spread.

I don't understand line betting.
Does this mean that if GWS win by 4 or more points, you get your 1.90 odds?

 

[SpiderBurton22]

I don't understand line betting.
Does this mean that if GWS win by 4 or more points, you get your 1.90 odds?

Yep

 

[D23D]

Yep

OK, so if you put that line bet on Adelaide, that means if they win OR lose by 3 or less points you also get the 1.90 right??

 

[SpiderBurton22]

OK, so if you put that line bet on Adelaide, that means if they win OR lose by 3 or less points you also get the 1.90 right??

Correct

 

[SpiderBurton22]

$80.20 collect last week, takes my yearly collect to $238.90 from a $120 outlay.

This week

$20 GWS +3.5/GEELONG/Ash Barty tonight/Australia to beat the Windies @ $6.48.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Profit: $48.28
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 12

Brisbane + under 171.5: $2.60
North + under 144.5: $2.60
GWS (-2.5) + under 165.5: $3.60

Value: $24.33

Return: $486.60

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Looks like this weeks bet is ****ed already, I'll have to have another look and go again.

 

[Quintero]

Looks like this weeks bet is ****** already, I'll have to have another look and go again.

Wouldn't be throwing away the ticket just yet

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Wouldn't be throwing away the ticket just yet

Yeah, good comeback. They need to get around 280 to be competitive. Barty had a win too.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Looks like this weeks bet is ****** already, I'll have to have another look and go again.

Take that back, Australia have comeback from nowhere and Barty has won. Still on track.

 

[muttley45]

$20 on Geelong by 39+ @ $4.20

 

[Snake_Baker]

$20 on Geelong by 39+ @ $4.20

Take a bow mate.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Round 12

Brisbane + under 171.5: $2.60
North + under 144.5: $2.60
GWS (-2.5) + under 165.5: $3.60

Value: $24.33

Return: $486.60

You ****ing IMPOSTORS Brisbane!

 

[SpiderBurton22]

You ****ing IMPOSTORS Brisbane!

Always a danger game, based off an emotional player response.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

* you GWS. 2nd time they've let me down. Should have layed off after my 1st 3 legs got up.

 

[Dan]

I forget who the poster was...but back in 2015 in Goldstein's AA year....someone here had a sizeable bet on him to win the Brownlow. Goldy polled poorly imo (all good ruckman do really) and was never gonna win it.

But the lucky punter/poster utilised the TAB cashout option weeks before the Brownlow and had a good collect.

I'm only bringing this up because Cunnington is $101 to win the Brownlow. I don't think he'll win (top 5 is realistic) but those odds will drop quickly due to this very topic being brought up in the media and currently is now 3rd in the coaches votes.

Get in now, cashout later in the season.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

This week's bets.

$20 on India tonight/Hawthorn 1-39/ Bulldogs @ $5.92 for a collect of $118.40.

So far $140 outlayed for a $238.60 return.

 

[Quintero]

This week's bets.

$20 on India tonight/Hawthorn 1-39/ Bulldogs @ $5.92 for a collect of $118.40.

So far $140 outlayed for a $238.60 return.

Adelaide 100+ @ $51 represents some value.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Adelaide 100+ @ $51 represents some value.

Haha, would be very funny to see.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

I forget who the poster was...but back in 2015 in Goldstein's AA year....someone here had a sizeable bet on him to win the Brownlow. Goldy polled poorly imo (all good ruckman do really) and was never gonna win it.

But the lucky punter/poster utilised the TAB cashout option weeks before the Brownlow and had a good collect.

I'm only bringing this up because Cunnington is $101 to win the Brownlow. I don't think he'll win (top 5 is realistic) but those odds will drop quickly due to this very topic being brought up in the media and currently is now 3rd in the coaches votes.

Get in now, cashout later in the season.

Carlos Herrrrrrrrnandez i think.

 

[Snake_Baker]

It's MULTI MADNESS time!

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Profit: $28.28
Betting allocation per round: $20

Round 12

Merrett/Heppel (55+): $1.55
StKilda (-8.5): $1.90
Billings (25+): $1.80
Fyfe/Mundy (55+): $1.80
Walsh (25+): $1.65
McKay (2+ goals): $1.65

Value: $25.97

Return: $519.40

Fyfe/Mundy (55+): $1.80 is very good value folks.

 

[shintemaster]

I forget who the poster was...but back in 2015 in Goldstein's AA year....someone here had a sizeable bet on him to win the Brownlow. Goldy polled poorly imo (all good ruckman do really) and was never gonna win it.

But the lucky punter/poster utilised the TAB cashout option weeks before the Brownlow and had a good collect.

I'm only bringing this up because Cunnington is $101 to win the Brownlow. I don't think he'll win (top 5 is realistic) but those odds will drop quickly due to this very topic being brought up in the media and currently is now 3rd in the coaches votes.

Get in now, cashout later in the season.

Yep. I've had a nibble at Cunnington into a North premiership. Odds are off the charts but if we keep winning games he'll be front and square... cash out if we get into finals.

 

[rickety]

Had my boy Orazio for 1st goal again at $12 ..... he got their 1st goal, close

 

[muttley45]

$20 on H2H multi : Freo @ $1.80/Carlton @ $2.55/Nth @ $2.50 = 11.48-1