Analysis AFL 2019 punting thread

[Quintero]

Neds have the back up bonus bet thing.

I feel your best crack at glory is to scan the form for 6 horse fields with 2 horses under $10, and back the 2nd favourite.

How can you possibly lose?

Multi today on Bet365 :

MR3: 15 @ $4
SR3: 12 @ $4.40
SR6: 3 @ $3.75
Kangas @ $1.93

$10 @ $127.38

 

[Snake_Baker]

You've changed man.

SC is for the tip.

I don't rate it for football judgement, it's just utilised in this instance as numbers evaluated against form, opposition, conditions and value.

 

[Quintero]

I don't rate it for football judgement, it's just utilised in this instance as numbers evaluated against form, opposition, conditions and value.

Did you ring SEN yesterday?

 

[Snake_Baker]

Did you ring SEN yesterday?

Nope.

I rarely listen to it any more.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

I don't rate it for football judgement, it's just utilised in this instance as numbers evaluated against form, opposition, conditions and value.

Fair enough, I haven't played it for a few years.

If it is the Herald Sun Supercoach point's, I don't trust it, from a punting perspective, as they change the weighting of points depending on the game situation.

I'd be more comfortable If it's the other Fantasy game where points are allocated purely on kicks, handballs, tackles etc.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Ruckmen are considerably advantaged.

Ultimately, how they rate these points isn't important in this context, it's about how it is applied to identify value bets.

 

[Quintero]

Nope.

I rarely listen to it any more.

Sam Manure is the only one worth listening to, which says a lot really.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Kruezer (125+ SC): $2.50 - Going well at the moment and playing on Allir in the ruck. My bet of the round.

118

 

[shintemaster]

I have Zurhaar most goals into NM 40+ for $5 to pay $415... fingers crossed.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Kruezer 119: 6 short
Goldy 131: yes
Crows (90+ only): yes

I'm going to go very close

 

[hilly]

Had $20 on Zurhaar for three or more goals which returned $180. Not my year on the punt but that was handy.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Nice work hilly.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Thereabouts last week, but no payoff.

Round 18

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $71.72
Betting allocation per round: $20

Multi:

Freo v Sydney (neither to score 90+): $1.58 - Dour sides averaging 76 and 80 points respectively. Game @ 6:10. Storms today & showers tomorrow.
Carlton (score 90+ only): $1.60 - Playing Gold Coast at Etihad, averaging 87 in their last 4 matches & the Suns haven't posted 90+ all year.
North v Brisbane (either by 29 or less): $1.60
Neale (30+): $1.60
Dunkley (30+): $1.80
Gagf (30+): $1.40

Value: $16.30

Payout: $326.20

 

[Sillygit]

Thereabouts last week, but no payoff.

Round 18

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $71.72
Betting allocation per round: $20

Multi:

Freo v Sydney (neither to score 90+): $1.58 - Dour sides averaging 76 and 80 points respectively. Game @ 6:10. Storms today & showers tomorrow.
Carlton (score 90+ only): $1.60 - Playing Gold Coast at Etihad, averaging 87 in their last 4 matches & the Suns haven't posted 90+ all year.
North v Brisbane (either by 29 or less): $1.60
Neale (30+): $1.60
Dunkley (30+): $1.80
Gagf (30+): $1.40

Value: $16.30

Payout: $326.20

I like that freo sydney one, seems almost garaunteed even without the weather.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I like that freo sydney one, seems almost garaunteed even without the weather.

Dunkley @ $1.80 is great value for a bloke that has averaged 35.5 in his last 4 outings at Docklands against better opposition.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

After a s**t few weeks I'm in the negatives.
$240 invested for a $238.60 return.

This week $20 Rich/Geel/WB/Nic Newman 25+ @ $5.30 to collect $106.00

 

[SpiderBurton22]

$20 on Rich +5.5/Pendles 25+/GWS @ $4.61 for a return of $92.20

So far total loss of $21.40.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

$92.20 collect last week, sees me back in the black. $280 outlayed for a return of $330.60.

This week $20 North 1-39/Geel/ Tim Kelly 25+ @ $4.65.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Round 20

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $91.72
Betting allocation per round: $20

Multi:

GWS win + over 159.5: $2.40 (bet of the round)
Collingwood score over 90+ only: $1.45
Ben King goal: $1.40
Treloar 30+: $1.35
T. Thomas goal: $1.50
North v Hawthorn either by 29 or less: $1.48
Richmond score over 90+ only: $1.72

= $25.11

Payout: $502.20

 

[Snake_Baker]

Those looking for a safer outlay could look at the following:

GWS win/total score over 159.5 @ $2.40 (TAB) is my bet of the round. (They have cracked 159.5 in 5 out of 6 at the showgrounds, tallied 152 in the only game they missed out, and average 179.3 per match there this year. Weather forecast is fine with no rain)

Good value multipliers:

T. Thomas goal: $1.50 (Hit the scoreboard in every match this season, and goaled in 8 of his last 9 games)
Richmond score over 90+ only: $1.72 (Richmond have broken 90 in their last 5 matches, Melbourne have broken it once in the last 8 rounds & conceded 90+ in 6 out of those same 8 matches)

Bundle them up for a $6.19 return on the dollar outlay.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Those looking for a safer outlay could look at the following:

GWS win/total score over 159.5 @ $2.40 (TAB) is my bet of the round. (They have cracked 159.5 in 5 out of 6 at the showgrounds, tallied 152 in the only game they missed out, and average 179.3 per match there this year. Weather forecast is fine with no rain)

Richmond score over 90+ only: $1.72 (Richmond have broken 90 in their last 5 matches, Melbourne have broken it once in the last 8 rounds & conceded 90+ in 6 out of those same 8 matches)

Did nicely.

Round 21

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $111.72
Betting allocation per round: $20

Multi:

North +22.5 @ $1.90
GWS 90+ only @ $2.60
Carlton + 34.5/under 153.5 @ $3.20
West Coast/over 168.5 @ $2.25

= $10.39

Payout: $207.80

 

[SpiderBurton22]

This week $20 GWS 1-39/NM +20.5/WB 1-39 @ $8.33 for a collect of $166.60

So far $300 outlayed for $330.60 return.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

GWS have burnt me 3 times this year. They are now officially on my shitlist.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Just logged on to Sportsbet to have a punt and had to do a double take when I saw my balance - significantly higher than I remembered.

Went to the transactions list and found that they've already paid out on Walsh winning Rising Star.

 

[marklovesbeer]