Analysis AFL 2019 punting thread

[Dingster]

Zurhaar to kick 2+ and North win @ $4.25

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Zurhaar to kick 2+ and North win @ $4.25

Had a chance to win it for you in the last few minutes but missed.

 

[Dingster]

Had a chance to win it for you in the last few minutes but missed.

He's usually a reliable kick too. I think he could have got a free just before Ats missed? I'm all smiles though.

 

[muttley45]

I call this Gilligan's Good for Business multi :All H2H,

$20 on Collingwood @$2.35/Richmond @$1.50/Carlton @$1.90/Brisbane @$1.70

= 11.39-1 for $227.80 return

Gilligan has also stated more than once that a successful * team is good for business, but my principles would not allow me to include them, as it would have meant hoping they would win.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Multi:

Brisbane (-3.5) @ $1.90
Worpel (25+) @ $1.45
Melb vs Sydney (neither 90+) @ $1.80

= $4.96

Bloody Melbourne!!!

 

[SpiderBurton22]

$20 on *(+30.5), North (win by +16), Merrett 25+, Higgins 25+, Parker 20+ @ $6.42 for a collect of $128.40

Currently $9.60 ,down for the year.

 

[muttley45]

$20 Collingwood by 40+ @ $2.35/North by 40+ @ $2.80/Port Adelaide by 40+ @ $3.20 = 21.056 for $421.10 collect.

I have a feeling I am ahead for the year and will do an audit next week sometime.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

$20 Collingwood by 40+ @ $2.35/North by 40+ @ $2.80/Port Adelaide by 40+ @ $3.20 = 21.056 for $421.10 collect.

I have a feeling I am ahead for the year and will do an audit next week sometime.

Like I always tell my missus, came out about even.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Was very tempted to take the $4.80 on * but took the safer option.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Rightio, let's roll the dice

Round 23

Goal: To profit one carton of beer per week over the AFL season.
Starting pool: $460
Loss: $151.72
Betting allocation per round: $20

Multi:

North score 90+ only @ $1.85
Higgins 30+ @ $2.25
T. Thomas to kick a goal @ $1.40
Bulldogs score 90+ only @ $2.00
Heeney 2 goals/Sydney win @ $3.00
Kelly 25+/Cameron 2+ goals @ $1.40

= $48.95

Payout: $979.00

 

[muttley45]

$20 Collingwood by 40+ @ $2.35/North by 40+ @ $2.80/Port Adelaide by 40+ @ $3.20 = 21.056 for $421.10 collect.

I have a feeling I am ahead for the year and will do an audit next week sometime.

Curse you Buckley, 26 scoring shots to 15, Grundy has an absolute picnic all night, and all you can manage is an 11 pt win v * VFL team

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Curse you Buckley, 26 scoring shots to 15, Grundy has an absolute picnic all night, and all you can manage is an 11 pt win v * VFL team

Sorry mate, I loved it.

 

[hilly]

I laid Brown at $1.12 for the Coleman. Most annoyed I've been about winning the bet.

Freo is a big price tomorrow for a team that has a caretaker coach. Adelaide look overs as well.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[giantroo]

 

[SpiderBurton22]

View attachment 733213

This bloke had a cash out offer of over $10,000 about 6 weeks ago, before Cameron missed his 1st game with injury.

 

[Quintero]

View attachment 733213

Mate of mine has this exact bet into Walsh rising star for $200.

He offered to sell half of the bet for 5% above the cashout figure offered by Neds.

I stupidly declined.

 

[giantroo]

This bloke had a cash out offer of over $10,000 about 6 weeks ago, before Cameron missed his 1st game with injury.

After today, I reckon he's got the 50k.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

After today, I reckon he's got the 50k.

A good chance.

Wonder what his cashout value is now. Just remebered, he had a cash out of $19,000 at one stage.

 

[tazaa]

A good chance.

Wonder what his cashout value is now. Just remebered, he had a cash out of $19,000 at one stage.

It was 10k before Cameron got injured and then he wins Coleman, Neales brownlow odds shortened and they offer 5k? Sportsbet are crooks

Neales 51 touches today locks in 3 more votes and Fyfe didn’t do much the past couple of weeks

Hope he lets it ride

 

[LuvtheKangas]

It was 10k before Cameron got injured and then he wins Coleman, Neales brownlow odds shortened and they offer 5k? Sportsbet are crooks

Neales 51 touches today locks in 3 more votes and Fyfe didn’t do much the past couple of weeks

Hope he lets it ride

Yeah, Sportsbet are pathetic. I have the Walsh-Rising Star / Neale-Brownlow double $20 @ 25.29 so collect is worth $506.

They've already paid Walsh as the RS winner, Neale shortened to $6 today and the cashout value is $59.25. Cheap.

Just means I let it ride (which I probably would have done anyway).

 

[EDFL follower]

Not sure y anyone would ever cash out? Why put the bet on in the first place if u r going to cash out?

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Not sure y anyone would ever cash out? Why put the bet on in the first place if u r going to cash out?

Because it's a certain payout whilst what you've bet on remains uncertain. You've already earned a return by the odds of what you bet on reducing since you bet.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Not sure y anyone would ever cash out? Why put the bet on in the first place if u r going to cash out?

Take the cashout and then lay off on Neale to win the Brownlow as insurance.

 

[hilly]

Because it's a certain payout whilst what you've bet on remains uncertain. You've already earned a return by the odds of what you bet on reducing since you bet.

I think the expected value is 99.9% of the time superior to what Sportsbet etc offer.

On SM-G950F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[giantroo]