AFL 2019 Round 5: Melbourne v St Kilda, 4:35pm AEST MCG

Who will win?

  • Melbourne < 10 pts

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Melbourne 10-30 pts

    Votes: 3 25.0%
  • Melbourne > 30 pts

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • St Kilda < 10 pts

    Votes: 2 16.7%
  • St Kilda 10-30 pts

    Votes: 6 50.0%
  • St Kilda > 30 pts

    Votes: 1 8.3%
  • Draw

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .

Gralin

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Thread starter Admin #1
Where and when: MCG, Saturday April 20, 4.35pm

Melbourne Forecast
1.PNG

Patchy fog in the outer suburbs and Yarra Valley in the early morning, followed by a sunny day. Local areas of smoke haze during the morning. Light winds becoming north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h later in the morning then becoming light in the afternoon.

Last time they met: MCG, round 15, 2018: Melbourne 18.9 (115) lost to St Kilda 18.11 (119)
The underwhelming performance marked Melbourne's third-straight loss, signalling doubts over Melbourne's finals credentials. The Saints produced their best four-quarter performance of the season, but almost let things slip in the last three minutes of the contest.

What it means for Melbourne: Momentum. After three consecutive losses to begin the season, the Demons finally got back on the winners list against the Swans. They must continue that winning form to get their season back on track.

What it means for St Kilda: The Saints have surprised many after beginning the season with three wins from four games. Although Melbourne has been a team out of sorts, beating the Demons would be Alan Richardson's side's biggest scalp of the season.

How Melbourne wins: Like the second half against Sydney, get on top of the contested possession count and turn that midfield advantage into forward 50 entries. But it will also be important for the Dees to take their chances in front of a goal – a theme that worked against them in the first month of the season.

How St Kilda wins: Limit Melbourne's possession count and don't allow the Demons' midfielders to dictate terms. Move the ball with speed and give their forwards one-on-one opportunities against their opponents.

The stat: Clayton Oliver (18.3) and Angus Brayshaw (14.3) rank inside the top 10 in the AFL for contested possessions per game.

The match-up: Jack Steele v Clayton Oliver
Steele is likely to go head-to-head in a run-with role with Melbourne's premier inside midfielder. The Saint – 59th in the AFL Player Ratings – has been in good form to start 2019, averaging 23.5 disposals per game. Oliver, ranked fifth in Player Ratings, is averaging 32.3 touches per contest.

It's a big week for: Rowan Marshall
Marshall was excellent against Hawthorn's Ben McEvoy on Sunday, but the challenges keep coming with a match-up against Max Gawn and Braydon Preuss to come. Marshall will likely lose the hit-out count to Gawn, but his strength lies with his ability to motor around the ground and push forward when required.


Big call: Max Gawn to kick three goals, spending time up forward to stretch St Kilda's defence.

Prediction: Demons by 10 points

Source: AFL Website
 
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Bazza97

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#3
It's important that we get the win today, need to get consecutive wins to build the momentum. Tipping Melbourne to win but wouldn't be surprised to see the Saints get up.
 

tim_saints

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#4
Beautiful day, trains running to at least burnley today as well... from out east.

Saints in form, Dees off a win, would be nice to see a decent crowd there for what should be a good game.
 

Bazza97

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#5
Beautiful day, trains running to at least burnley today as well... from out east.

Saints in form, Dees off a win, would be nice to see a decent crowd there for what should be a good game.
It's interesting, MCG is only expecting 34,000 at the game. Like you said considering the weather, the Saints good start to the year and the Dees coming off a win, I'd be disappointed if there's not at least 40,000 people there today.
 

tim_saints

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#6
It's interesting, MCG is only expecting 34,000 at the game. Like you said considering the weather, the Saints good start to the year and the Dees coming off a win, I'd be disappointed if there's not at least 40,000 people there today.
Yeah that’s a pretty ordinary projection I think! I’m honestly not going to be surprised if it’s 50k or more, I think we will show up! And the weather it perfect really.
 

Dez!

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#7
We've gone in with a more mobile defensive unit with St Kilda not having an overly big forward line and gone tall up forward to stretch the Saints defense.

I actually don't mind the back six we've got in today, Frost the only one that I'm worried about when he's got the ball in hand.

Also keen to see how Marshall goes against Gawn/Preuss, he's been very good for the Saints this year.
 

Atomboy

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#8
We've gone in with a more mobile defensive unit with St Kilda not having an overly big forward line and gone tall up forward to stretch the Saints defense.

I actually don't mind the back six we've got in today, Frost the only one that I'm worried about when he's got the ball in hand.

Also keen to see how Marshall goes against Gawn/Preuss, he's been very good for the Saints this year.
Saints will get absolutely flogged in the hit outs today, could be some records broken.

Hopefully Roma can make up for it around the ground.
 

Dez!

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#9
Saints will get absolutely flogged in the hit outs today, could be some records broken.

Hopefully Roma can make up for it around the ground.
I'm hoping that with Preuss in the side that Gawn can float back and play the intercept role he did towards the end of last year, really has to make sure Marshall can't hit the scoreboard.
 

joop

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#11
If both teams play to their best then the Dees win. But we play well against the Dees and play well at the G. Think we can exploit their backline too.
If we get up it will really shape both our seasons I reckon.
 

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projectv

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#12
This has the potential to be an amazing game. Really depends on which of both teams turn up.

Do Melbourne have a backline yet? We might hit 100 points for the first time this season...

...or that could backfire spectacularly.

Go Saints.
 

Jibroni

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#17
Saints have confidence and the Dees are still finding there feet. Jetta is a massive in, Dees by 13.
 

WWSD

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#20
Teams who beat Hawthorn often lose the next week.


2018
R9: Brisbane
R10: Loss

R15: GWS
R16: Loss

R17: Brisbane
R18: Loss

QF: Richmond
PF: Loss

SF: Melbourne
PF: Loss

2019
R2: WB
R3: Loss

:eek:
 
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