Autopsy AFL 2020 Round 10 - Tigers v Lions Tues August 4th 7:10pm AEST (Metricon) Match Highlights in OP

[juss]

I'm with you Nunez. We have the younger and less experienced side tonight. I'd be more confident going into a game with our best 22 vs their best 22 than the current sides playing tonight.

Our best is good enough to beat Richmond - which is supported by last years final where we dominated for big chunks and just kept missing. People seem to easily forget that we kicked 25 scoring shots to Richmonds 22 scoring shots in that finals loss and should have been up by 20-30 points at the end of the first quarter.

Not confident going into tonight due to the 4 day break vs the 6 day break. Just hoping for a 4 quarter effort and no injuries!

I'd actually be more confident in best 22 vs best 22 than I am tonight. When the players are available the Lions have struggled to beat the Tigers in recent times. I've seen a few references to last year's QF as a positive for the Lions. Let's call a spade a spade, the Lions were at home and got smashed by 47 points, Dusty kicked 6. I think tonight they've got far more hope than that.

 

[Nunez]

I'd actually be more confident in best 22 vs best 22 than I am tonight. When the players are available the Lions have struggled to beat the Tigers in recent times. I've seen a few references to last year's QF as a positive for the Lions. Let's call a spade a spade, the Lions were at home and got smashed by 47 points, Dusty kicked 6. I think tonight they've got far more hope than that.

I agree, however not for the same reasons you're saying.

Last year our game plan was one dimensional. While we were able to generate more scoring shots than Richmond, our game plan made for very slow transitions which led to high difficulty shots - missing those allowed Richmond to be far more efficient than us.

However, this year we've developed a much more corridor dependant gameplan which is a big reason we've only lost two games (the bizarre round one against the Hawks and 1 bad quarter vs Geelong). I think this years Brisbane is far better than the 2019 Brisbane Lions that played Richmond in the finals. I think we're much better equipped to beat teams like Richmond.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Our best is good enough to beat Richmond - which is supported by last years final where we dominated for big chunks and just kept missing. People seem to easily forget that we kicked 25 scoring shots to Richmonds 22 scoring shots in that finals loss and should have been up by 20-30 points at the end of the first quarter.

If we win again I'll look forward to Fages reeling off various stats at the presser while looking bewildered.

 

[Barnzy]

We will win our 15th game in a row against the Lions tonight.

 

[RUNVS]

We will win our 15th game in a row against the Lions tonight.

Most fans try and downplay their sides chances, you know, give the opposition a bit of respect and also cover yourself if you do lose. Richmond fans, behind all the losing I had no idea just how arrogant they were.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

Either you don't watch Brisbane or you're trolling. Given you're a Richmond supporter and the sheer volume of trolls your team seem to have, I assume you're the latter.

No I defiantly watch Brisbane. It's not trolling to respond to someone saying that their best 22 would beat a team they haven't beaten in 11 years. Twice last year when you looked unbeatable at the Gabba.
Also the fact you're pointing out your 6 outs which clearly only 1 is hard to replace being Martin are huge. You need to also look who's out in the opposing side.
Label me a "troll" all you like but I'm just calling your BS out that's all.

 

[Nunez]

No I defiantly watch Brisbane. It's not trolling to respond to someone saying that their best 22 would beat a team they haven't beaten in 11 years. Twice last year when you looked unbeatable at the Gabba.
I am just calling your BS out that's all.

Oh please, it's not like I said we'd thrash you. Based off his years form, we have been the better team and would go in favourites. That's not to say we're any guarantee, but it would be very much a 5050.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

Oh please, it's not like I said we'd thrash you. Based off his years form, we have been the better team and would go in favourites. That's not to say we're any guarantee, but it would be very much a 5050.

You just admitted it. It's a 50/50 right now with the outs Richmond have.
So if it was best 22 v 22 going by your previous post Brisbane would win?
You're confused mate.

 

[Nunez]

You just admitted it. It's a 50/50 right now with the outs Richmond have.
So if it was best 22 v 22 going by your previous post Brisbane would win?
You're confused mate.

In Queensland I think we would.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

P

In Queensland I think we would.

Well along with it being played in QLD & considering the personnel both sides have available you deserve to be favourites.
Although Id love to the 4pts, I am not too concerned about losing tonight as I rather you break the hoodoo now rather than if meet again in finals at hopefully a more neutral ground like SA or WA & have our full list of players available.

 

[Tom14]

No I defiantly watch Brisbane. It's not trolling to respond to someone saying that their best 22 would beat a team they haven't beaten in 11 years. Twice last year when you looked unbeatable at the Gabba.
Also the fact you're pointing out your 6 outs which clearly only 1 is hard to replace being Martin are huge. You need to also look who's out in the opposing side.
Label me a "troll" all you like but I'm just calling your BS out that's all.

Rich is our second best defender and best ball user, so I'd say he's hard to replace. Rich and Birchall both being out will hamper us. Witherden was good last game but he's worse offensively than both and far worse defensively than Rich. Our gamestyle has evolved to be more possession and corridor kicks on the back of having both Rich and Birchall in the back 50. Our back 6 will be very young and inexperienced (Darcy Gardiner will be the oldest at 24) and unlike the bombers Richmond do not field a VFL standard forward line.

I also think we'll miss McStay this game. He's no world beater but is a surer bet to compete in the air against Balta, Grimes, Vlaustin etc than Skinner and Ballenden who will be playing games 3 and 2 respectively. I expect them to have a day out in the air and launch a lot of scores from it, when we will need our talls to force repeat contests inside 50 as that is how we structure up defensively and generate multiple scoring opportunities.

More to the point I think Nunez's point reflects that at this stage of our development, we don't have the consistent structure bedded down to be able to play our best with players missing and our depth is untried and untested. Richmond have been playing the same style well and have demonstrated they can handle absences of key players and have young players step up seemlessly. I'd agree that Richmond's outs for this game are as significant as Brisbanes and perhaps more so, I just trust your capacity to overcome it far more. And you know, you have Dusty.

If teams were at full strength and on a neutral field, I'd tip Richmond, but I'd give us a better shot of causing the upset than I do tonight.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

Rich is our second best defender and best ball user, so I'd say he's hard to replace. Rich and Birchall both being out will hamper us. Witherden was good last game but he's worse offensively than both and far worse defensively than Rich. Our gamestyle has evolved to be more possession and corridor kicks on the back of having both Rich and Birchall in the back 50. Our back 6 will be very young and inexperienced (Darcy Gardiner will be the oldest at 24) and unlike the bombers Richmond do not field a VFL standard forward line.

I also think we'll miss McStay this game. He's no world beater but is a surer bet to compete in the air against Balta, Grimes, Vlaustin etc than Skinner and Ballenden who will be playing games 3 and 2 respectively. I expect them to have a day out in the air and launch a lot of scores from it, when we will need our talls to force repeat contests inside 50 as that is how we structure up defensively and generate multiple scoring opportunities.

More to the point I think Nunez's point reflects that at this stage of our development, we don't have the consistent structure bedded down to be able to play our best with players missing and our depth is untried and untested. Richmond have been playing the same style well and have demonstrated they can handle absences of key players and have young players step up seemlessly. I'd agree that Richmond's outs for this game are as significant as Brisbanes and perhaps more so, I just trust your capacity to overcome it far more. And you know, you have Dusty.

If teams were at full strength and on a neutral field, I'd tip Richmond, but I'd give us a better shot of causing the upset than I do tonight.

Can't argue with this. Well written and explained. In fairness, I did mention Rich has improved and was an important out also in a previous post. I actually forgot about Birchall. I can see where you're going with McStay but not convinced as yet with him.
Although Balta has proven to hold his own in a key position post he still makes numerous errors in our defensive 50 and against your speedy forward line including Cameron, McCarthy & Raynor it will hurt us and not go unnoticed as much.
Vlasutin is a huge in for us very underrated defender.
All this taken into account I still think the bookies have got it right but should be a cracking game nonetheless.
Good luck

 

[Tom14]

Can't argue with this. Well written and explained. In fairness, I did mention Rich has improved and was an important out also in a previous post. I actually forgot about Birchall. I can see where you're going with McStay but not convinced as yet with him.
Although Balta has proven to hold his own in a key position post he still makes numerous errors in our defensive 50 and against your speedy forward line including Cameron, McCarthy & Raynor it will hurt us and not go unnoticed as much.
Vlasutin is a huge in for us very underrated defender.
All this taken into account I still think the bookies have got it right but should be a cracking game nonetheless.
Good luck

Cheers you too. Hopefully its a good game.

You are correct about McStay - jury is very very out on him. Has incredible talent and very rarely will take a game over (e.g. the first quarter when we played Port and he took 6-7 contested marks), but then 20 games will pass with not much and with a lot of misses from 20-30m out. He does usually compete decently well in the air and thats where my concern is because our replacements are so untried.

 

[juss]

Rich is our second best defender and best ball user, so I'd say he's hard to replace. Rich and Birchall both being out will hamper us. Witherden was good last game but he's worse offensively than both and far worse defensively than Rich. Our gamestyle has evolved to be more possession and corridor kicks on the back of having both Rich and Birchall in the back 50. Our back 6 will be very young and inexperienced (Darcy Gardiner will be the oldest at 24) and unlike the bombers Richmond do not field a VFL standard forward line.

I also think we'll miss McStay this game. He's no world beater but is a surer bet to compete in the air against Balta, Grimes, Vlaustin etc than Skinner and Ballenden who will be playing games 3 and 2 respectively. I expect them to have a day out in the air and launch a lot of scores from it, when we will need our talls to force repeat contests inside 50 as that is how we structure up defensively and generate multiple scoring opportunities.

More to the point I think Nunez's point reflects that at this stage of our development, we don't have the consistent structure bedded down to be able to play our best with players missing and our depth is untried and untested. Richmond have been playing the same style well and have demonstrated they can handle absences of key players and have young players step up seemlessly. I'd agree that Richmond's outs for this game are as significant as Brisbanes and perhaps more so, I just trust your capacity to overcome it far more. And you know, you have Dusty.

If teams were at full strength and on a neutral field, I'd tip Richmond, but I'd give us a better shot of causing the upset than I do tonight.

It's the midfield which probably concerns me. Neale, Zorko, McLuggage, Lyons, Robinson is probably stronger than our Cotchin + a mish mash of inexperienced players, especially when Martin is forward, missing Prestia, Edwards and Caddy. I always back our defence as it's our strongest area, so we just need whoever doesn't get H Andrews to play well and kick goals, because Andrews is very likely to lock them down.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

It's the midfield which probably concerns me. Neale, Zorko, McLuggage, Lyons, Robinson is probably stronger than our Cotchin + a mish mash of inexperienced players, especially when Martin is forward, missing Prestia, Edwards and Caddy. I always back our defence as it's our strongest area, so we just need whoever doesn't get H Andrews to play well and kick goals, because Andrews is very likely to lock them down.

Andrews normally blankets Lynch most games anyway even back while he was at the suns. Just need Riewoldt to find some form on a possible matchup of Gardiner.
Agree their midfield is the most concerning especially with Brownlow Neale running freely and Zorko getting under our skins.
Edit - We also don't have a genuine wingman and seem to be always exposed there so yeah add McLuggage to that list who will hurt us on the outside.

 

[Lsta062]

Most fans try and downplay their sides chances, you know, give the opposition a bit of respect and also cover yourself if you do lose. Richmond fans, behind all the losing I had no idea just how arrogant they were.

As arrogant as a lot of the opposition fans when we were losing? You know, the ones that coined the term “ninth-mond”?

Yeah, there are Richmond supporters who have admittedly been arrogant but let’s not pretend that non-Richmond supporting AFL fans are beacons of humility.

 

[Yojimbo]

Richmond has the record, but this game is at Metricon which adds to the uncertainty. If Brisbane can salute it will create a gap at
the top of the ladder, fascinating yes, but both teams need to find something to flag up this year.

 

[RUNVS]

As arrogant as a lot of the opposition fans when we were losing? You know, the ones that coined the term “ninth-mond”?

Yeah, there are Richmond supporters who have admittedly been arrogant but let’s not pretend that non-Richmond supporting AFL fans are beacons of humility.

No, but West Coast and even Hawthorn fans did not behave like this.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Most fans try and downplay their sides chances, you know, give the opposition a bit of respect and also cover yourself if you do lose. Richmond fans, behind all the losing I had no idea just how arrogant they were.

It's just banter. We've got Brisbane fans telling us they know how to beat "sides like Richmond" (premiership sides ?) when they haven't beaten us for over a decade.

Tonight could go either way, but what do you expect us to come back with?

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

No, but West Coast and even Hawthorn fans did not behave like this.

What a load of garbage. Short memory much. I acknowledge some Richmond fans are unbearable but every team has them ffs. Anyway back to discussing the actual game.

 

[snooplions]

Hey Richmond board, fix ya culture.

 

[Libbafan]

Richmond almost a certainty- a great record V Lions and us coming off a 4 day break= Tigers win

Believe!
When you've been at the bottom of the ladder for yonks, every team will have a good record.
I'm not sold on the Tigers this year. I coukd be wrong but your lot are the benchmark in my view.
Just gotta back Fagan re the 4 day break.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

If teams were at full strength and on a neutral field, I'd tip Richmond, but I'd give us a better shot of causing the upset than I do tonight.

Excellent analysis, thank you for taking the time to type that up.

Why do you think the betting markets have Brisbane as favourite, given the amount of things going against them in this match on paper?

If I hadn't looked at the odds I'd have thought it was 1.50 vs 2.50 kinda game, especially given the 4 vs 6 day turnaround from last round.

The betting markets must know something I don't.

 

[_Mike_]

Haha you don't want to see the preview thread on the Richmond board.

I cannot remember supporters/fans of Collingwood, West Coast, Geelong or say even Hawks being like this. Vomit inducing stuff.

Leave the team board stuff on the team boards. Dont drag it onto the main board.

 

[sante]

Hey Richmond board, fix ya culture.

No thanks. That’s why our board is so fun. We take the piss the majority of the time and oppo supporters get so salty about it