Autopsy AFL 2021 Round 14 - Cats v Dogs Fri June 18th 7:50pm EST (GMHBA)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Cats by a goal or less

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Dogs by a goal or less

    Votes: 4 9.3%
  • Cats by 7 - 20

    Votes: 19 44.2%
  • Dogs by 7 - 20

    Votes: 5 11.6%
  • Cats by a lot

    Votes: 14 32.6%
  • Dogs by a lot

    Votes: 1 2.3%
  • Draw

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    43
  • Poll closed .

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Going to be very tough for us to match Geelong without Treloar and Dunkley.
They're missing Higgins but close to full strength with Duncan back. I don't see how any team beats Geelong without a clean injury list themselves, Cats have experience and talent all over the paddock.
You still have a formidable midfield led by the 2021 Brownlow medalist
 
You still have a formidable midfield led by the 2021 Brownlow medalist
Yep that's our one wood. I'm confident our midfield can match yours and forwards can work well, I just don't think our defence can stop your forwardline if all things are equal. Our lack of quality second KPD is the big issue. We have to win significantly in other parts of the ground to help our defence and it's a tall order with Duncan and Guthrie back in.
 
Dogs defence cant hold Hawkins/Cameron/Rohan if the Cats midfield gets on top. Dogs would need to dominate the midfield battle but also ensure the Cats dont get the quick rebound. Geelong seem to be great at absorbing the pressure then getting the quick break with fast runners like Jordan Clarke.

Tipping Geelong by 38 points
 

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Cats should win at home at full strength. Dogs will no doubt come with their A game and challenge the cats. Cats lose this then top 2 off the table and top 4 a struggle. If you initially choose to play at home and sacrifice crowds to keep your home ground advantage then it becomes must win and no excuses.
 
Dogs start fast, dominate midfield and kick something like 3.6 to 2.1 in the first. Second quarter more of an arm wrestle, low scoring and halftime only a kick or two in it. Geelong start to break even in the midfield second half and forward line starts to dominate. Geelong by 4-5 goals by the end.

That's the most likely script imo, but I wouldn't be surprised if we won or got a hiding. I haven't tipped against the dogs all year, but these next two games (here and v WC in Perth) are fairly tricky.
 

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Yep that's our one wood. I'm confident our midfield can match yours and forwards can work well, I just don't think our defence can stop your forwardline if all things are equal. Our lack of quality second KPD is the big issue. We have to win significantly in other parts of the ground to help our defence and it's a tall order with Duncan and Guthrie back in.
While I agree with you, and am tipping Geelong, key defence is just as much an issue for them as it is for us. With all the talk of Geelong's 3 headed monster, ours has shown to be just as much a threat, having kicked more goals and behinds, although from essentially 1 extra game each (so Geelong at a very slightly better rate). There's almost nothing in it really, and it's just as likely that our guys cause trouble for them.

Geelong's big 3 - 72.39 from 29 games
Bulldogs' big 3 - 75.42 from 32 games
 
Going to be very tough for us to match Geelong without Treloar and Dunkley.
They're missing Higgins but close to full strength with Duncan back. I don't see how any team beats Geelong without a clean injury list themselves, Cats have experience and talent all over the paddock.

They shouldnt be 'missing' Higgins at all. Hes done sweet f.a.
Dont let the 'managed' label fool you
 
While I agree with you, and am tipping Geelong, key defence is just as much an issue for them as it is for us. With all the talk of Geelong's 3 headed monster, ours has shown to be just as much a threat, having kicked more goals and behinds, although from essentially 1 extra game each (so Geelong at a very slightly better rate). There's almost nothing in it really, and it's just as likely that our guys cause trouble for them.

Geelong's big 3 - 72.39 from 29 games
Bulldogs' big 3 - 75.42 from 32 games

You need to compare the averages from games when all 3 have actually played together to do the comparison any justice. Geelong's forward line didn't get going until Cameron came in after missing the first 5 weeks.
 
Dogs defence cant hold Hawkins/Cameron/Rohan if the Cats midfield gets on top. Dogs would need to dominate the midfield battle but also ensure the Cats dont get the quick rebound. Geelong seem to be great at absorbing the pressure then getting the quick break with fast runners like Jordan Clarke.

Tipping Geelong by 38 points


Same with the Geelong backs, can’t handle Naughton, Bruce and English. Dogs have a better midfield so should get more inside 50 opportunities.

But you’re right about our backs. Scary when Geelong go inside 50.
 
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