Autopsy AFL 2022 First Preliminary Final - Cats v Lions Fri Sept 16th 7:50pm EST (MCG)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Cats by a goal or less

    Votes: 4 2.0%
  • Lions by a goal or less

    Votes: 12 6.1%
  • Cats by 7 - 20

    Votes: 45 22.7%
  • Lions by 7 - 20

    Votes: 63 31.8%
  • Cats by a lot

    Votes: 62 31.3%
  • Lions by a lot

    Votes: 10 5.1%
  • Draw

    Votes: 2 1.0%

  • Total voters
    198
  • Poll closed .

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mcgarnacle

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 2, 2003
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Richmond fans strongly believe they will always beat Geelong in finals. And based on what Melbourne served up, Richmond would believe they probably would have accounted for them last week.

So in their minds, they choked away a 'guaranteed' GF appearance in Week 1. No wonder they are pissy.

Every club has regret or the ones that got away.

Geelong probably has more than any other in the last 10 years.
 

evolutionbaby

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Jun 15, 2015
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Erm, Melbourne were playing a side coming off an equally soft prelim final win, so that argument holds precisely zero weight.

Geelong’s soft prelim win in 2020 might be a better one to look at given their opponent in the grand final had done it considerably tougher in their prelim. How did that turn out? :think:
Agreed. Not as good as 2011 against West Coast. "Lies, damn lies and statistics."
 

Tristan34

Club Legend
Apr 10, 2015
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Although I do agree with your sentiment, it’s all too predictable these narratives.

Pre season - cats are cooked
Pre finals - cats will straight set
Win a close final - ooh they nearly dropped the ball
Week off - ooohhh haven’t played many games in a four week period
Big win in prelim - that’s not gonna help their cause for the GF

You forgot one..

Cats win the flag - softest season since 2007...
 

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PhatBoy

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May 5, 2016
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Massive congrats to the Cats. Extraordinary achievement the way they’ve sustained their position as legit flag contenders for a decade. If they win the flag it will be a just dessert, but even if they don’t, their sustained run of excellence should be acknowledged.

Also: Danger has to have had the most underrated careers (on Bigfooty) of just about any player. He has been (and still is) an absolute champion - one of the best contested bulls you’ll ever see, who also hits the scoreboard regularly and is great overhead. If you don’t think he’s been one of the best players of the AFL era you’re kidding yourself .

Great post mate.
 

evolutionbaby

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Although I do agree with your sentiment, it’s all too predictable these narratives.

Pre season - cats are cooked
Pre finals - cats will straight set
Win a close final - ooh they nearly dropped the ball
Week off - ooohhh haven’t played many games in a four week period
Big win in prelim - that’s not gonna help their cause for the GF
You left out the umpires that gift us games, Now standing at 15 times in a row.
 

Herne Hill Hammer

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yes and also Geelong had an easy draw, Stengle can't kick goals vs top 4 teams, Danger never plays well in finals, Collingwood should have won the QF, Brisbane beat the last couple of premiers and shook off the MCG hoodoo, Geelong can't win after the bye, Geelong has a poor PF/finals record, they're old and slow etc. It was the most undeserved PF victory ever

The only one that held any weight of that lot for me was Geelong's inability to win after a bye, they finally seem to have solved that mystery this year with 3 wins after byes. Cameron being 100%, the emergence of SDK, the huge improvements in Zuthrie, Atkins, Holmes and Close, the arrival of Stengle, the management of the veteran's games and in game minutes has made this side nothing like any of the others from the past decade.

Almost forgot, Stewart being available this finals series helps too.

Blicavs has won 2 b&f's, I think he is having his best season by some margin this year, at the bare minimum he just needs to play his part next week after such a poor showing in previous years finals.
 

Herne Hill Hammer

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I was just checking the stats and was surprised to learn that Selwood had only 12 disposals. Felt like he was influential.

I had him as Geelong's second best behind Dangerfield. He was influential. All the early clearances were going Brisbane's way until Joel stepped into the breach and had some key centre clearances in quick succession. Important knock-ons, halving contests when out numbered and even took a contested mark at one stage. He's been managed beautifully this season, something the club has been able to do with the elevation / emergence of so many others to take some of the weight.
 

Danw0w

Team Captain
Feb 19, 2020
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Can we now put to bed the myth of the pre finals bye hurting the qualifying final winners? Weeks off at this time of year are like gold, especially coming off a tough final like Geelong did in week one. The cats looked primed.

Brisbane, on the other hand, had just played their grand final two weeks in a row. There was a stark contrast between the lions side in week one vs the lions side last night. They looked mentally exhausted more than anything.
 

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VicBased

Club Legend
May 3, 2019
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LOL, from what I have seen, calling the Eagles fans a “little” one eyed just does not
cut it. It seems that the fans at Optus believe a free against their team is an impossibility.😂
People in glass houses and all that?
 

PhatBoy

Hall of Famer
May 5, 2016
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Kardinia park advantage gets you into finals. Your record from the past few years in finals shows you weren't a great team. This year is probably your best shot. Good luck.

Our record away from Kardinia park is better than any other team on the road in the afl, across an 11 season sample size. Our Kardinia park tenancy gets us nothing of the sort
 

Soggy2112

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Aug 6, 2021
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I reckon that was probably only the second BOG he's had this year, we've had some of the other mids and even our younger guys really step up this season and obviously it's gone a long way to seeing us winning with a more sustainable gameplan than 'just let paddy do it'

But jeez it's nice when he puts in a vintage performance like he did last night.
I loved seeing him do that, never understood the “Danger is poor in finals” narrative. He had some absolute monster performances in finals for us and done it often enough for the Cats too. I hope he gets the flag he deserves.
 

BringouttheGimp

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Apr 18, 2015
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Our record away from Kardinia park is better than any other team on the road in the afl, across an 11 season sample size. Our Kardinia park tenancy gets us nothing of the sort

You did not play the Bulldogs Melbourne St Kilda at the G this yr.. you need to play every one of your home games at the G for your post to make sense.

40 games over 11 yrs at GM.. 90% chance of winning.. 40 games over 11 yrs at the G.. be generous and say 65-70% chance of winning.. your record at the G would still be excellent.. but not the greatest.
 
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HairyO

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Jul 13, 2015
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The in the back frees to Brisbane from Geelong tackles were poor also. I think it's a tactic from Brisbane when tackled to jump forward. The umpires have generally been getting better with those calls but we're sucked in last night.

Was good to see Selwood raise his arm in a tackle and get a high free kick on his farewell tour.
 

Tristan34

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Apr 10, 2015
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You did not play the Bulldogs Melbourne St Kilda at the G this yr.. you need to play every one of your home games at the G for your post to make sense.

40 games over 11 yrs at GM.. 90% chance of winning.. 40 games over 11 yrs at the G.. be generous and say 65-70% chance of winning.. your record at the G would still be excellent.. but not the greatest.

Lol

You do realise the bulldogs and saints home games aren't at the MCG, we know we played them twice...
 

PhatBoy

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You did not play the Bulldogs Melbourne St Kilda at the G this yr.. you need to play every one of your home games at the G for your post to make sense.

40 games over 11 yrs at GM.. 90% chance of winning.. 40 games over 11 yrs at the G.. be generous and say 65-70% chance of winning.. your record at the G would still be excellent.. but not the greatest.

No, I don’t.

Our winning percentage away from KP over the last 12 seasons is better than any other team away from THEIR home ground in the same period, and if you apply that percentage to all those seasons across 22 matches, we would, mathematically, make the finals in all 12 of them without ever playing a home game
 

Hoops

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Can we now put to bed the myth of the pre finals bye hurting the qualifying final winners? Weeks off at this time of year are like gold, especially coming off a tough final like Geelong did in week one. The cats looked primed.

Brisbane, on the other hand, had just played their grand final two weeks in a row. There was a stark contrast between the lions side in week one vs the lions side last night. They looked mentally exhausted more than anything.
Stats suggest that it's true though.

Edit. from 2000 to 2021:
28 from 32 QF winners played in the GF without a pre-finals bye and only 5 from 12 have since the bye was introduced.

It's conclusive actually.
 
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