Autopsy AFL 2022 First Qualifying Final - Cats v Pies Sat Sept 3rd 4:35pm EST (MCG)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Cats by a goal or less

    Votes: 5 2.1%
  • Pies by a goal or less

    Votes: 48 19.8%
  • Cats by 7 - 20

    Votes: 52 21.5%
  • Pies by 7 - 20

    Votes: 32 13.2%
  • Cats by a lot

    Votes: 89 36.8%
  • Pies by a lot

    Votes: 11 4.5%
  • Draw

    Votes: 5 2.1%

  • Total voters
    242
  • Poll closed .

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I can't see how Collingwood will get within 7 or 8 goals of Geelong. They beat a battered injury-ridden Blues team by one point and Sam Walsh withdrew before the game. If Geelong does fail, Collingwood will win the flag, it will be an incredible effort for them to kick a winning score. Cats have too many strengths though, Cameron, Stanley and Duncan will return, I expect them to win easily. Cats by 45 points.
You’re making the same mistake a lot of other opposition supporters have been making for half the season.

Underrate the Pies at your own peril.
 
I can't see how Collingwood will get within 7 or 8 goals of Geelong. They beat a battered injury-ridden Blues team by one point and Sam Walsh withdrew before the game. If Geelong does fail, Collingwood will win the flag, it will be an incredible effort for them to kick a winning score. Cats have too many strengths though, Cameron, Stanley and Duncan will return, I expect them to win easily. Cats by 45 points.
yeah i think youre right.:p:p:p:p
 

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Yeah, I don't see why Geelong would waste their time putting anywhere near a full strength team on the park?

Save them for the bigger games/tougher opponents.
Pies only a point better than Carlton with three of it's top five midfielders out, Cats easy this week.
 

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On paper we should win, but Collingwood have been a real bogey side for us in the past. Almost always close games and upsets no matter what their form line. I think their pace and small forward line have caused us issues in the past as they've exploited probably our two weak spots, but I think we've improved in both areas.

Both teams have had a bit of a habit of getting a good run on, then going to sleep and letting the opposition back in again. Might be a real 'heart attack' game for both sets of supporters.
 
Collingwood is the worst top 4 team in living memory. Geelong is the worst September team of this era.

Collingwood is inherently mediocre as their % illuminates and as their win-loss record disguises. But they have an annoying habit of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Geelong on the other is outstanding on paper. But they've looked good many years since 2011 and they've found a way to stuff it up every year.

1 of 2 things will happen. Either Geelong wins by 10+ goals or Collingwood wins by 1-6.
Only a fool puts a 13-1 win rate down to luck.
 
Pies only a point better than Carlton with three of it's top five midfielders out, Cats easy this week.

Carlton have the most upside. Weitering has been out for a chunk of the season. That's all we've heard the entire season. You're naive to think the natural progression for the Blues is finals next year. Sport doesn't work that way.
 
No they won't. But just remember, De Koning is a young buck new on the scene. If ever there was a time for him to seize up in the moment, this is the game.
I have absolutely no faith in Blicavs, Bews, Z.Guthrie or Kolodjasnij. I know Stewart will play well but it's not as if we are this all conquering dominant force. A team full of old blokes on their last legs and have not had a decent hit-out for a good month.

Collingwood would not fear us one little bit. In fact, no finalist would. We have a monkey on the back and we are the heavy favourites to win it all. That usually spells trouble for this team.
Bolded is the kicker - Geel have been pacing themselves in games all season, and rested players where needed.
Can they withstand 4 QTRs of pressure or the inevitable cauldren in the last 15 minutes if its close?

Time will tell, but as you point out aging list is a vulnerability.
 
Bolded is the kicker - Geel have been pacing themselves in games all season, and rested players where needed.
Can they withstand 4 QTRs of pressure or the inevitable cauldren in the last 15 minutes if its close?

Time will tell, but as you point out aging list is a vulnerability.
Ageing list wasn't a factor in the last quarter the last time these two teams played. 😉
 
I wish they'd get rid of this pre-finals bye crap.
It's tricky, I see the merit on the one hand with giving players every chance to get healthy. But 2 games in 4 weeks for teams that win the QF is as much a punishment.
 
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