Autopsy AFL 2022 Round 14 - Tigers v Blues Thurs June 16th 7:20pm (MCG)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Tigers by a goal or less

    Votes: 6 7.7%
  • Carlton by a goal or less

    Votes: 3 3.8%
  • Tigers by 7 - 20

    Votes: 25 32.1%
  • Carlton by 7 - 20

    Votes: 24 30.8%
  • Tigers by a lot

    Votes: 11 14.1%
  • Carlton by a lot

    Votes: 7 9.0%
  • Draw

    Votes: 2 2.6%

  • Total voters
    78
  • Poll closed .

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Jackington

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Sep 23, 2021
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It was a good win from Richmond, who clearly played the conditions better, particularly in the first half.

Feel like a lot of people getting very carried away, considering:
  • Had the Newnes goal not been overturned (on marginal evidence at best) it could have been a loss
  • Carlton's injury list currently includes Weitering, Pittonet, Cerra, McGovern and Williams - all of whom would be a walk up start every week
  • Richmond don't have an injury list
  • They lost yet ANOTHER second half badly, a theme for the year, even against a side well below their best.
 

NaturalDisaster

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Jul 16, 2015
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It was a good win from Richmond, who clearly played the conditions better, particularly in the first half.

Feel like a lot of people getting very carried away, considering:
  • Had the Newnes goal not been overturned (on marginal evidence at best) it could have been a loss
  • Carlton's injury list currently includes Weitering, Pittonet, Cerra, McGovern and Williams - all of whom would be a walk up start every week
  • Richmond don't have an injury list
  • They lost yet ANOTHER second half badly, a theme for the year, even against a side well below their best.

Did we get the injury excuse when we lost to Carlton R1?
 

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Lsta062

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Jul 15, 2014
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Last night showed that Carlton have Richmonds measure going forward..the tigers with a full squad and a dream run from the umpires just scraped over the line in a wet miserable game against a severely depleted Carlton . looking forward to the next encounter, Hopefully richmond can hang onto the 8 and not drop to 9th
Moving forward as in next year and beyond or as early as finals this year? If you’re talking about next year, then I think that it’s a possibility. If you’re talking about finals this year though, then I disagree. The evidence does not show that Carlton has Richmond’s measure. We won 3 quarters yesterday and lost Round 1 after being up by 20 points in the 4th quarter. That’s hardly having a team’s measure.

Also, if this was a dream run in umpiring, then I don’t know what the 28-20 free kick count and eight 50-metre penalties to Carlton in Round 1 was.
 

Lsta062

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It was a good win from Richmond, who clearly played the conditions better, particularly in the first half.

Feel like a lot of people getting very carried away, considering:
  • Had the Newnes goal not been overturned (on marginal evidence at best) it could have been a loss
  • Carlton's injury list currently includes Weitering, Pittonet, Cerra, McGovern and Williams - all of whom would be a walk up start every week
  • Richmond don't have an injury list
  • They lost yet ANOTHER second half badly, a theme for the year, even against a side well below their best.
We only lost the second half by 10 points though. I don’t think it was that much of a smashing.

I’m still not concerned because we were like this in 2017 as well. We led by 30+ points at least 3 times only to lose the game (Sydney, GWS, and Bulldogs). I don’t recall exactly, but we may have also given up big leads only to win moderately in some of those games as well.

Either way, it really feels like we’re very close to clicking. We look motivated from the beginning and look good enough to take a lead of 20+ points against top 8 sides like St Kilda, Carlton twice, and Sydney.
 

Thrawn

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Jul 21, 2001
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No you wouldn't. Collingwood are without Grundy, Krueger, Madgen and McInnes. And others.

They beat Carlton when you had Cerra and others in.

In the real world, if both full teams played tomorrow you'd be a 50% chance at best.

Carlton are a very average side.


No, in the real world, put Weitering in that side and you would've lost, as would have the Pies. Which would've put us 1st on the ladder... average sides don't go 9-3 in the first half of the year, especially missing their FB, #1 ruck and FF for large chucks of that. Just like May for the Demons, Weitering is irreplaceable and was in great form before going down. We're missing him immensely and will be why we'll miss the top 4.

People who have no idea about football are severely underestimating his impact. The best example of that was against Sydney where he demolished Franklin and repelled attack after attack. Go watch his 2nd half, probably one of the best games from a FB this year. To pretend that this wouldn't have happened vs the Pies and Tigers, in the form he was in, is pure stupidity.

You got us at the right time, and full credit to your boys for the win. But don't pretend that missing an in-form Weitering would've made no difference to the result. I mean, our backline was being held Young and Durdin (someone who wasn't actually playing football at an elite level for a long time) - surprised your twin towers didn't kick more tbh.
 

Skull Face

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Aug 27, 2019
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It was your worst performance because we didn’t let you play the way you wanted. You’ll find over the last 5 years quite a few teams have had their “worst performance” of the season against the tigers. Or maybe we are just extremely lucky to get so many teams playing their “worst game of the year?” against us?
Get your hand off it sunshine we toweled you up in round 1 we just didnt adjust to the wet and a few outs hurt
 

Rich01

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Oct 5, 2004
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It was a good win from Richmond, who clearly played the conditions better, particularly in the first half.

Feel like a lot of people getting very carried away, considering:
  • They lost yet ANOTHER second half badly, a theme for the year, even against a side well below their best.
Tell me more about this theme.

Of twelve games up to last night we were 7-4 in second halves with one level score.

Last night in the second half we kicked 4.9 to 6.7. Actually the same amount of scoring shots.
 

Lsta062

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No, in the real world, put Weitering in that side and you would've lost, as would have the Pies. Which would've put us 1st on the ladder... average sides don't go 9-3 in the first half of the year, especially missing their FB, #1 ruck and FF for large chucks of that. Just like May for the Demons, Weitering is irreplaceable and was in great form before going down. We're missing him immensely and will be why we'll miss the top 4.

People who have no idea about football are severely underestimating his impact. The best example of that was against Sydney where he demolished Franklin and repelled attack after attack. Go watch his 2nd half, probably one of the best games from a FB this year. To pretend that this wouldn't have happened vs the Pies and Tigers, in the form he was in, is pure stupidity.

You got us at the right time, and full credit to your boys for the win. But don't pretend that missing an in-form Weitering would've made no difference to the result. I mean, our backline was being held Young and Durdin (someone who wasn't actually playing football at an elite level for a long time) - surprised your twin towers didn't kick more tbh.
But Carlton conceded 76 inside 50s for 11 Richmond goals. That’s already a good defensive effort. If Richmond had 50% inside 50 efficiency, then I’d understand, but they didn’t. Richmond had an efficiency of 34%, which is only 1% more than we had against Melbourne’s defence that included May (33%).

Also, Carlton had 101 intercept possessions, which is a lot as well. Having Weitering in would just take some of those stats away from some of your other players from last night and give it to him.

Who would’ve probably made a difference is someone like Cerra. He’s clean with his disposals (even in the wet) so could have improved Carlton’s midfield ball movement. But that’s probably something we could’ve argued with Dustin Martin missing as well. Pittonet could have also helped give Carlton more stoppage clearances, which is an area that Richmond smashed Carlton in.

Weitering though is a player that sounds better on paper for a wet game like yesterday than in practice in my opinion.
 

Skull Face

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TDK no good ?

Nankervis was a premiership Ruckman at a similar age
I actually think Pitto just suits the way our mids play, get it down to ground and let the big boys draw defenders to get a man clear where TDK can often have lovely taps but out to space where our leg speed can be exploited.

Cripps was the best player in the comp with him in, he has been okay without being outstanding since he went down.

TDK will be fine though, he will evolve he already is to a degree.
 

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Jackington

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Tell me more about this theme.

Of twelve games up to last night we were 7-4 in second halves with one level score.

Last night in the second half we kicked 4.9 to 6.7. Actually the same amount of scoring shots.


Second half percentage is currently 91.97% and haven't won a second half against a top 8 side.
Last night was the first time a second half has been lost but held on for the win.

"scoring shots" is a bit vague too, 10 off the boot vs 13. Which kind of followed the theme of the night. 6 rushed vs 1.
 

Rich01

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Second half percentage is currently 91.97% and haven't won a second half against a top 8 side.
Last night was the first time a second half has been lost but held on for the win.

"scoring shots" is a bit vague too, 10 off the boot vs 13. Which kind of followed the theme of the night. 6 rushed vs 1.
You’re getting a bit obtuse trying to justify your claim of us losing second halves as a theme.

Do we measure it by more points in the second half?

Or your obscure method of second half percentage?

The former seems the more practical and obvious and the latter quite a stretch.

Do we measure wins as most points scored or total points for vs against at the end of the season?

But good for you trying to find something, anything, to justify your initial claim. It’s more than some do on this site and I appreciate the response.
 

Jackington

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Sep 23, 2021
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You’re getting a bit obtuse trying to justify your claim of us losing second halves as a theme.

Do we measure it by more points in the second half?

Or your obscure method of second half percentage?

The former seems the more practical and obvious and the latter quite a stretch.

Do we measure wins as most points scored or total points for vs against at the end of the season?

But good for you trying to find something, anything, to justify your initial claim. It’s more than some do on this site and I appreciate the response.

It's more that there's a theme of allowing top 8 sides big second halves in a year of momentum.

Every second half against a top 8 side has been a loss, and that's going to have to be rectified before September.

But I'm remiss to write Richmond off ever, because I've done it before, and they're a tenacious bunch of pricks. Particularly with how tight the top 8 currently is.
 

Rich01

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It's more that there's a theme of allowing top 8 sides big second halves in a year of momentum.

Every second half against a top 8 side has been a loss, and that's going to have to be rectified before September.

But I'm remiss to write Richmond off ever, because I've done it before, and they're a tenacious bunch of pricks. Particularly with how tight the top 8 currently is.
Thanks for clarifying. Your initial claim was disingenuous, but this one, while incredibly specific, makes sense.

When you look at it through a win-loss perspective, you will see that of the wins we have, we outscore the oppo in the second half. Of the losses we have the reverse is true. There seems to be a correlation between winning second halves and winning games for us.

Which at 8-5 shows we are on the positive end of this ‘theme’. Because if it’s all about the W as you say, that’s the most important thing.
 

Tigerandy63

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Oct 20, 2007
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weitering - best defender and our vice captain
pittonet - only true ruck option
marchbank - looked 1000x better with him playing last week
cerra - starting 22 midfielder
williams - starting 22 defender
mcgovern - looked 2000x better when he played earlier in year and was close to BOG rd 1 vs. tiges

cunningham - was best 22 last year and would be this year, but hasn't played all year so can't count him
o mcdonald - best 22 at start of year but only played 1 game, so can't count him
ed curnow - likely finished but decent depth if required
williamson - showed promise early and played plenty of seniors, but handy depth but off for mental health reasons
parks - played seniors last year, fringe this year.

so 6 bona-fide best 22 and mostly key players, followed by 5 depth/fringe players.

in case anyone wanted a true understanding of the injury list.
I wholeheartedly agree that missing players can cripple a team.

Have a lok at Richmonds absentee last night

Dustin Martin (GOAT)

pretty much evens it up hey.
 

Skull Face

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Aug 27, 2019
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:$ So much angst over Cripps softness and Bolton giving Carlton their deserved respect. Let it all out guys, begin the healing before you slip out the 8 totally.

Between you Carlton guys and the usual haters, you have topped off a great night with your incessant melts.

Maybe next year hey guys. Chins up?
Takes a flog to like a flog,
 

Skull Face

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Throw in the umpires and you have the trifecta Skull.
I mean your up against it when the opposition 1st 2 goals are from an eye gouge and a bloke kicking another fellas hand but better to cop that crap now then when it really matters.
 
Last edited:

Rich01

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I mean your up against it when the opposition 1st 2 goals are from an eye gauge and a bloke kicking another fellas hand but better to cop that crap now then when it really matters.
Haha yes, there you go Skull.
Have a great weekend.
 

Falcon3518

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Mar 13, 2022
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No, in the real world, put Weitering in that side and you would've lost, as would have the Pies. Which would've put us 1st on the ladder... average sides don't go 9-3 in the first half of the year, especially missing their FB, #1 ruck and FF for large chucks of that. Just like May for the Demons, Weitering is irreplaceable and was in great form before going down. We're missing him immensely and will be why we'll miss the top 4.

People who have no idea about football are severely underestimating his impact. The best example of that was against Sydney where he demolished Franklin and repelled attack after attack. Go watch his 2nd half, probably one of the best games from a FB this year. To pretend that this wouldn't have happened vs the Pies and Tigers, in the form he was in, is pure stupidity.

You got us at the right time, and full credit to your boys for the win. But don't pretend that missing an in-form Weitering would've made no difference to the result. I mean, our backline was being held Young and Durdin (someone who wasn't actually playing football at an elite level for a long time) - surprised your twin towers didn't kick more tbh.

I think you are overrating Weitering. He’s not even on this list and Gibcus in his first year is 8th lol
IMG_4186.JPG



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jc12

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Because I can't take it? Mate, it's Carlton and I'm a pies fan. Always happy for Carlton to lose. I don't believe it was touched and I don't believe the idiots up in the box could without a doubt conclude it was touched in such a short time.
You blind ? Look at his fingers. Oh yes I'm sure he purposely bent them as the ball went past him . Salty