Autopsy AFL 2022 Round 21 - Lions v Blues Sun Aug 7th 3:20pm EST (Gabba)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Lions by a goal or less

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Blues by a goal or less

    Votes: 2 3.1%
  • Lions by 7 - 20

    Votes: 14 21.5%
  • Blues by 7 - 20

    Votes: 10 15.4%
  • Lions by a lot

    Votes: 34 52.3%
  • Blues by a lot

    Votes: 4 6.2%
  • Draw

    Votes: 1 1.5%

  • Total voters
    65

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Milux

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 29, 2013
8,150
11,773
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
They lost at home to the Dons only 4 weeks ago.

Really not a lot in both of these sides at the moment.

Both teams are 5-5 in their last ten.
Carlton - WLWLWLWLWL (2-3 away - 3-2 at home, 2 of the away losses at MCG against Pies/Tigers, one away win at MCG against Dons, one home loss at Marvel against Saints. All of those are pretty much neutral venues with no real home/away advantage/disadvantage)
Lions - LWLWLWLWWL (1-4 away - 4-1 at home, the home loss coming from the Dons)

The wins:
Blues - Swans, Dons, Freo, Eagles, GWS (ave margin = 34.2)
Lions - GWS, Saints, Dogs, GWS, Suns (ave margin = 26.6)

The losses:
Blues - Pies, Tigers, Saints, Cats, Crows (ave margin= 18.6)
Lions - Hawks, Freo Dees, Dons, Tigers (ave margin = 20)

Blues are a bit more even when it comes to performing at home or away, but 4 games have been at the MCG/Marvel against co-tenants and are fairly neutral in terms of home ground advantage.
Lions are obviously very strong at home and very poor on the road, but the loss to the Dons in round 17 shows that they aren't unbeatable at home.
Blues haven't lost 2 games in a row all year. Neither have the Lions.

Blues haven't conceded 100+ points all year and have reached the mark themselves 7 times (all wins obviously).
Lions have conceded 100+ points 4 times (all losses) and have reached the mark 9 times (one of those being a loss).
I know you can't just "forget" about a game but somewhere deep down makes me feel like if we weren't forced into making 9 changes to our team that Essendon game might of went a bit differently.

With that said I really don't see how Carlton are paying 3.15. With us clear favourites. I have no confidence at all.
 

catscollector

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 30, 2018
5,964
7,468
AFL Club
Geelong
Brisbane's form is like that of Carlton, very erratic at the wrong time of the season. I think Carlton's midfield will step up and prove the difference in a nail biting finish.
 

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Macca180

Team Captain
Oct 5, 2021
591
619
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
I think Brisbane but after watching the Dogs not turn up at home who knows if Brisbane will show up.This year has been all over the pace.
 

Bazza97

Premiership Player
Nov 17, 2016
3,922
3,913
Melbourne
AFL Club
Melbourne
Really looking forward to this one, a game which will further shape the top 8. Both teams looking for a response after disappointing losses last week. A win for Brisbane would put them right back in the hunt for top 4. Starcevich and Rich are big ins for them and at the Gabba I give them the slight edge going into this one. Plenty at stake for Carlton too, a win would pretty much confirm their top 8 spot and I think they've got a team that is good enough to win today especially with key players in the midfield such as Cripps and Walsh as well as McKay and Curnow up forward. Also keen to see how the Carlton backs fare against the Brisbane's dangerous forwards which will play a big part in the result today, we know Brisbane is a very good offensive team.
 

Chism

Franks & Beans
Sep 7, 2008
35,161
33,863
Planet Salma
AFL Club
Carlton
Other Teams
Cowboys/Pacers HotSpurs/Dodgers
Can’t see us winning up there in QLD and we need a hell of lot more intensity than last weeks debacle to get within 5 goals.

No surprise if we don’t win another game and the Tigers replace us in the 8. Hewitt out kills our structure regarding the defensive side of our mid field.
 

JackFlash

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 28, 2012
9,662
8,579
Docklands
AFL Club
Geelong
Other Teams
QPR, Buffalo Bills, McLaren F1
Okay, riddle me this. Why is Carlton in their normal strip, but last week in Adelaide wore the terrible all-white strip? They're still playing away against a team with no white in their jersey? I often get baffled by these inconsistencies.
 

BigPond101

All Australian
Mar 18, 2020
615
1,152
AFL Club
Fremantle
Why is Jason Bennet YELLING at me when there is an ordinary piece of play in the middle of the ground

For all the hate BT gets at least he doesnt take the game so seriously like its life or death. let me relax
 

Monco Matt

Senior List
Aug 15, 2009
212
400
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Storm, 49ers
Never thought I'd be barracking for the Blues, but here I am. C'mon Blues, grow a pair of balls one time!!
 

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Toffee Lion

BigFooty Rising Star
Oct 10, 2011
13,763
16,462
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Everton, Bucks, Packers
Seriously disappointing quarter. So much wasted footy, lack of composure going into F50.

Carlton have barely showed up but we aren't much better.
 

Toffee Lion

BigFooty Rising Star
Oct 10, 2011
13,763
16,462
Melbourne
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
Everton, Bucks, Packers
Bit clumsy from Jack Martin
 

nahnah

Brownlow Medallist
Sep 26, 2012
29,370
41,157
AFL Club
Collingwood
Seriously disappointing quarter. So much wasted footy, lack of composure going into F50.

Carlton have barely showed up but we aren't much better.
Aren't much better? This has been uncompetitive so far apart from the kicking for goal