I know you can't just "forget" about a game but somewhere deep down makes me feel like if we weren't forced into making 9 changes to our team that Essendon game might of went a bit differently.They lost at home to the Dons only 4 weeks ago.
Really not a lot in both of these sides at the moment.
Both teams are 5-5 in their last ten.
Carlton - WLWLWLWLWL (2-3 away - 3-2 at home, 2 of the away losses at MCG against Pies/Tigers, one away win at MCG against Dons, one home loss at Marvel against Saints. All of those are pretty much neutral venues with no real home/away advantage/disadvantage)
Lions - LWLWLWLWWL (1-4 away - 4-1 at home, the home loss coming from the Dons)
The wins:
Blues - Swans, Dons, Freo, Eagles, GWS (ave margin = 34.2)
Lions - GWS, Saints, Dogs, GWS, Suns (ave margin = 26.6)
The losses:
Blues - Pies, Tigers, Saints, Cats, Crows (ave margin= 18.6)
Lions - Hawks, Freo Dees, Dons, Tigers (ave margin = 20)
Blues are a bit more even when it comes to performing at home or away, but 4 games have been at the MCG/Marvel against co-tenants and are fairly neutral in terms of home ground advantage.
Lions are obviously very strong at home and very poor on the road, but the loss to the Dons in round 17 shows that they aren't unbeatable at home.
Blues haven't lost 2 games in a row all year. Neither have the Lions.
Blues haven't conceded 100+ points all year and have reached the mark themselves 7 times (all wins obviously).
Lions have conceded 100+ points 4 times (all losses) and have reached the mark 9 times (one of those being a loss).
With that said I really don't see how Carlton are paying 3.15. With us clear favourites. I have no confidence at all.