Autopsy AFL 2022 Round 23 - Lions v Demons Fri August 19th 7:50pm EST (Gabba)

[Xtreme]

If that was our GF I’ll be very concerned. I don’t think we will follow that up this week.

You think they'll play better ?

I just don't see them playing themselves into good form.

 

[demondavey]

Absolutely want top 4. I am not confident to be honest, our F50 entries are atrocious. We are slow, off target, and putting our forwards under unfair pressure. We are also in big trouble with our key forwards, most notably Ben Brown

50

Ben Brown

Age

31

Ht

200cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

2.2

5star

D

7.9

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.6

1star

M

3.7

4star

T

0.9

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

. Hopefully he doesn’t lead and try and mark with one arm, but he is horribly out of touch.

I am less concerned our backline, I’ll back our defenders to break even with their forwards. I also think our midfield will work a lot harder than theirs, but we really do need to improve our forward connection and sort out the F50 business. However I am dubious on this happening this year. If we do get it together and win big, the confidence will be back.

 

[Scythe94]

You think they'll play better ?

I just don't see them playing themselves into good form.

You've predicted a 10-goal Melbourne loss in every GDT thread this year and we're 15-6. If anything, your lack of confidence is a good omen.

 

[demondavey]

You think they'll play better ?

I just don't see them playing themselves into good form.

I think form is bullshit to be honest. You can find form in 5 minutes with 2-3 goals which can lift the entire group. If we get off to a good start and sense the pressure in Brisbane I feel we can run through them. On the whole we have a very good side and I don’t think we are going to be complacent with this game.

 

[Scythe94]

Melbourne has won their past 11 games interstate – way better on the road than at home for some reason.

 

[Xtreme]

You've predicted a 10-goal Melbourne loss in every GDT thread this year and we're 15-6. If anything, your lack of confidence is a good omen.

I'm not known as a reverse jinx for nothing

 

[demondavey]

Melbourne has won their past 11 games interstate – way better on the road than at home for some reason.

Expectation perhaps?

 

[Scythe94]

Expectation perhaps?

Partially, but I also feel the 'G makes it easier to exploit our zone. The wider ground is harder to clog up defensively.

 

[Scythe94]

Partially, but I also feel the 'G makes it easier to exploit our zone. The wider ground is harder to clog up defensively.

Surely enough, the stats support this to a degree (and would have moreso had we not conceded 110 to the Dogs in a shootout at Marvel)

Average points against at the G: 71.3
Average points against away from the G: 62.6

 

[Zevon]

It ‘feels’ like Brisbane at home deserve to be slight favourites, but I can’t shake the memory of that game in Melbourne less than 2 months ago when the Dees just completely destroyed the Lions.

Different circumstances and venue now of course, but I think Melbourne matches up pretty well on Brisbane so I’ll tip them.

 

[FeastOrFamine]

Our good patches in games have resulted in us playing our best footy for the year, however our lapses are definitely a worry. If we tighten up and keep the pressure on for 4 quarters then I think we win, however this game will be a massive test of our resolve. Let's see what we've learnt since last time.

 

[00Stinger]

It ‘feels’ like Brisbane at home deserve to be slight favourites, but I can’t shake the memory of that game in Melbourne less than 2 months ago when the Dees just completely destroyed the Lions.

Different circumstances and venue now of course, but I think Melbourne matches up pretty well on Brisbane so I’ll tip them.

Strangely I feel more confident of playing interstate

This year we are 5-0 on the road and have won our last 10 interstate

 

[Zevon]

Strangely I feel more confident of playing interstate

This year we are 5-0 on the road and have won our last 10 interstate

Did not realise that Yeah definitely no fears on the road then

 

[00Stinger]

Did not realise that Yeah definitely no fears on the road then

This year beat Gold Coast, Port Adelaide (in Adelaide & Alice Springs), West Coast & Freo (in Pert)

last year finals- Brisbane in Adelaide & Geelong & Bulldogs in Perth

last year - West Coast in Perth & Port in Adelaide.

 

[Section 5]

Strangely I feel more confident of playing interstate

This year we are 5-0 on the road and have won our last 10 interstate

Actually it is 6-0 but but only 1 win against a top 10 team. That being the Dockers
Wins interstate- Suns, Power x 2 (Adelaide & NT), Eagles, Crows & Dockers
If you class GMHBA Stadium as "on the road" then that is your only loss this year away from Melbourne

 

[00Stinger]

Actually it is 6-0 but but only 1 win against a top 10 team. That being the Dockers
Wins interstate- Suns, Power x 2 (Adelaide & NT), Eagles, Crows & Dockers
If you class GMHBA Stadium as "on the road" then that is your only loss this year away from Melbourne

I forgot the Adelaide win, even funnier considering I was there lol

Yeah only one win against a top 8 team, but that was also probably our most convincing. Means nothing for this Friday nights game really other than we can be confident that playing on the road isn't the hoodoo it once was

 

[blueiris]

Melbourne‘s record at the Gabba isn’t great they have only won 2 out of the last 8 games there and haven’t played the Lions at the Gabba in 2 years.
Will be interesting to see how this game goes Lions have only lost 1 game at home this season while Melbourne have been better on the road
they’re record out of the last 8 games are very similar having won 5 out of the last 8 games

 

[Section 5]

I forgot the Adelaide win, even funnier considering I was there lol

Yeah only one win against a top 8 team, but that was also probably our most convincing. Means nothing for this Friday nights game really other than we can be confident that playing on the road isn't the hoodoo it once was

Melbourne have a better interstate record this year than the Lions
Lions however had 10 interstate games to Demons 6.
Lions are 5 & 5 which sums up our inconsistant year. Melbourne also inconsistant from round 16 after winning 10 straight
Lions wins away.... Bombers, Swans, Crows, GWS, Saints. So only one win against top 9 side similar to Melbourne
Lions losses away.. Cats, Hawks, Dockers, Demons, Tigers

Last time the Lions beat Demons was round 8 of 2020. Played at Metricon and won by only 4 points

Melbourne should be the favourites for this game but betting has Lions slightly ahead $1.80 - Demons $1.95
Lions have struggled to put 4 solid quarters of footy together for a while now. So that is their challenge Friday evening

Weather will be perfect for footy so it should be a good contest

 

[JasRulz63]

The key is going to be whether Brisbane's midfield can finally stand up to Melbourne's in a sustained fashion. There's been periods where the Brisbane midfielders have been able to match Melbourne's (first quarter this year, first half last year), but eventually Melbourne get on top and dominate through the middle.

I assume Harmes will come in and follow Neale around the whole night, and he usually does a great job on him. Similarly, Mathieson will match up either on Oliver or Viney at the contest and try to nullify either (Mathieson played a similar role on Steele last week and kept him to 13 disposals and 1 clearance).

Not convinced Brisbane are going to be able to sustain their competitiveness through the midfield enough to stop the flood of inside 50s, and if we win, I feel it'll be because Melbourne butcher the ball going inside 50 and their lack of targets (e.g. vs Collingwood 2 weeks ago).

 

[00Stinger]

Melbourne have a better interstate record this year than the Lions
Lions however had 10 interstate games to Demons 6.
Lions are 5 & 5 which sums up our inconsistant year. Melbourne also inconsistant from round 16 after winning 10 straight
Lions wins away.... Bombers, Swans, Crows, GWS, Saints. So only one win against top 9 side similar to Melbourne
Lions losses away.. Cats, Hawks, Dockers, Demons, Tigers

Last time the Lions beat Demons was round 8 of 2020. Played at Metricon and won by only 4 points

Melbourne should be the favourites for this game but betting has Lions slightly ahead $1.80 - Demons $1.95
Lions have struggled to put 4 solid quarters of footy together for a while now. So that is their challenge Friday evening

Weather will be perfect for footy so it should be a good contest

I legit think this should be $1.95 each for this game

 

[tiger_tough]

Dees in a low scoring close one. Lions are too mentally fragile.

 

[blueiris]

Dees in a low scoring close one. Lions are too mentally fragile.

Not at home they aren’t if this was the MCG I’d agree

 

[tiger_tough]

Not at home they aren’t if this was the MCG I’d agree

Your finals record says otherwise. How many have they won at home in the last few years? 1 from 5 or something. No doubt they're a lot better at home but no doubt they're front runners when it counts.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Winner in the 4 and a major contender. Loser likely out of the 4 and very unlikely to challenge. It's like an extra finals game.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Melbourne‘s record at the Gabba isn’t great they have only won 2 out of the last 8 games there and haven’t played the Lions at the Gabba in 2 years.
Will be interesting to see how this game goes Lions have only lost 1 game at home this season while Melbourne have been better on the road
they’re record out of the last 8 games are very similar having won 5 out of the last 8 games

And we only lost that game because our team was decimated thanks to Covid.