Autopsy AFL 2022 Second Qualifying Final - Demons v Swans Fri Sept 2nd 7:50pm EST (MCG)

[Wosh]

H&A Ladder Position
2ND V 3RD

AFL 2022 FINALS WEEK 1
SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL
MELBOURNE V SYDNEY
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 2ND 7:50PM EST (MCG)


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TEAMS

DEMONS
B: T.Rivers, H.Petty, S.May
HB: A.Brayshaw, J.Lever, M.Hibberd
C: J.Hunt, C.Oliver, J.Melksham
HF: C.Spargo, L.Jackson, E.Langdon
F: K.Pickett, B.Brown, A.Neal-Bullen
FOLL: M.Gawn, J.Viney, C.Petracca

I/C: C.Salem, J.Harmes, B.Fritsch, T.Sparrow
EMG: T.Bedford, J.Bowey, J.van Rooyen, J.Smith

IN: C.Salem
OUT: J.Bowey (omitted), J.Jordon (sub)

SWANS
B: D.Rampe, T.McCartin, N.Blakey
HB: J.Lloyd, P.McCartin, J.McInerney
C: E.Gulden, C.Warner, C.Mills
HF: I.Heeney, S.Reid, W.Hayward
F: T.Papley, L.Franklin, R.Clarke
FOLL: T.Hickey, L.Parker, J.Rowbotto

I/C: R.Fox, O.FLorent, L.McDonald, D.Stephens
EMG: C.Sinclair, H.Cunningham, H.McLean, B.Campbell

IN: Nil
OUT: S.Wicks (sub)



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[My Tilly]

I reckon whoever takes this one is winning the flag.
Demons by 11 points.



(Buddy to kick 5)

 

[Zevon]

We win this.

 

[NewMelbournian]

I have a sneaky suspicion this is the grand final preview.

 

[Jibroni]

Lots of respect for the Swans, a very talented side. They always give us a hard time as well, expecting a close one.

 

[Lampers]

Lots of respect for the Swans, a very talented side. They always give us a hard time as well, expecting a close one.

The last two times these teams met, in my opinion the better team on the night lost both times.

Melbourne very lucky to get across the line in 2021. The least convincing win in the 9 game streak to start the season and many of the key indicators in Sydney’s favour.

Sydney lucky this year as Melbourne, without May (although Sydney without Franklin but had Logan McDonald having a big night to compensate) threw away chance after chance late, and let Sam Reid of all players tear them apart.

 

[demondavey]

Most likely the winner wins the flag.

 

[juss]

Dees by 29.

IMO they are about to click and piss their way through the finals with 3 wins.

 

[demondavey]

Dees by 29.

IMO they are about to click and piss their way through the finals with 3 wins.

Don’t get sucked in to that game against Brisbane. Sydney will be a lot harder and then it gets tougher from there.

 

[Tippett2Goal]

The last two times these teams met, in my opinion the better team on the night lost both times.

Melbourne very lucky to get across the line in 2021. The least convincing win in the 9 game streak to start the season and many of the key indicators in Sydney’s favour.

Sydney lucky this year as Melbourne, without May (although Sydney without Franklin but had Logan McDonald having a big night to compensate) threw away chance after chance late, and let Sam Reid of all players tear them apart.

I reckon you are remembering that 2nd game with red and blue glasses, cause my memory of that game is that the Swans were incredibly inaccurate missing multiple simple set shots and if they were converting as you would expect (somewhere around ~60%) should have won by more.

Either way will be interesting to see the re-match and how tactics may have changed.

 

[dee64]

I reckon you are remembering that 2nd game with red and blue glasses, cause my memory of that game is that the Swans were incredibly inaccurate missing multiple simple set shots and if they were converting as you would expect (somewhere around ~60%) should have won by more.

Either way will be interesting to see the re-match and how tactics may have changed.

If Melbourne bomb the ball long to their tall forwards, The McCartin brothers will have a field day, and the Swans will win. If Melbourne lower their eyes and hit up leading targets as they did against the Lions, I'm confident we'll win.

 

[juss]

Don’t get sucked in to that game against Brisbane. Sydney will be a lot harder and then it gets tougher from there.

Melbourne IMO would have to be the best placed team going into finals. Have realised that you don't need to peak in June/July, but have done perfectly in finishing where they want to be, top 4, home finals.

They remind me very much of Richmond, timing their run after some experts "questioned" their in season form, but watch what happens now. I reckon you'll have a dominant finals series and blow some teams away.

 

[CheapCharlie]

I don't have a sense of who is going to win..

Hope it's the Swans!

 

[Romeoh1]

Should be a cracker.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Most likely the winner wins the flag.

Geelong the best side by a long way this year. I know their September reputation of late, but they seem more steeled than previously. Structures are superb.

That being said, Sydney will rue not beating the Saints by enough to get the home final. Demons by 17.

 

[demondavey]

Geelong the best side by a long way this year. I know their September reputation of late, but they seem more steeled than previously. Structures are superb.

That being said, Sydney will rue not beating the Saints by enough to get the home final. Demons by 17.

If Geelong don’t beat Collingwood, forget it. Won’t win the cup.

 

[Dee Train]

If Geelong don’t beat Collingwood, forget it. Won’t win the cup.

They will destroy Collingwood. Worst top 4 team in living memory surely.

 

[RUNVS]

Last time Sydney and Melbourne played each other was round 12 where Sydney won 73 to 61.

Likely changes for the Swans in this game compared to Round 12

Ins
Buddy
Clarke
Hickey
Stephens

Out
Ronke
Amartey
Wicks
Ladhams

Just edited as I forgot Stephens and Ladhams.

 

[Xtreme]

Melbourne by 34

 

[My Tilly]

Last time Sydney and Melbourne played each other was round 12 where Sydney won 73 to 61.

Likely changes for the Swans in this game compared to Round 12

Ins
Buddy
Clarke
Hickey

Out
Ronke
Amartey
Wicks

Much better ins.
Particularly Hickey.

 

[_jrtp09_]

Melbourne IMO would have to be the best placed team going into finals. Have realised that you don't need to peak in June/July, but have done perfectly in finishing where they want to be, top 4, home finals.

They remind me very much of Richmond, timing their run after some experts "questioned" their in season form, but watch what happens now. I reckon you'll have a dominant finals series and blow some teams away.

Agree with your analysis. Demons have definitely been clicking this past month.

 

[Lampers]

Last time Sydney and Melbourne played each other was round 12 where Sydney won 73 to 61.

Likely changes for the Swans in this game compared to Round 12

Ins
Buddy
Clarke
Hickey
Stephens

Out
Ronke
Amartey
Wicks
Ladhams

Just edited as I forgot Stephens and Ladhams.

Melbourne likely to be

Ins
May
Melksham
Hibberd
Rivers

Outs
Bowey
Mitch Brown
Bedford
Tomlinson
Jordon

I’d expect one of Bowey or Jordon to be medi sub, possibly Joel Smith.

Melbourne should have a significantly more experienced team, and a stronger team in. The main difference will be the backline which is vastly improved on the round 12 side.

In round 12 it was:

• Tomlinson (too slow for AFL level this year coming off his knee)
• Lever (was going through a horror patch of form at the time, also exposed with May missing and Petty getting injured in game for several games in a row)
• Petty (from memory got injured with a shoulder early, only played 83% game time which is very low for him)
• Salem (first game back after missing 11 weeks injured and is still yet to really hit his straps)
• Hunt (in much better form now)
• Bowey (was struggling a bit being asked to play as a genuine defender instead of an attacking distributor, ultimately dropped a month later)
• Brayshaw (he played well that night)

Every position on form and/or ability should be an upgrade with the exception of Brayshaw who is now playing mid. Brayshaw playing mid weakens the backline a little, and the midfield too, but in turn strengthens the forward line from round 12 with Petracca spending less time mid and more at half forward.

 

[Roobs321]

Both clubs faced off in their very first VFL/AFL match in R1 1897, but have only managed 2 finals encounters ever since. This will be their 3rd final in 126 seasons.

1987 SF
Melbourne wins by 76 at MCG (80K, biggest non-GF crowd that season, those long-starved fans of both clubs)
of course, this was before the right to host finals outside Victoria

1936 PF
South Melb win by 26 at MCG (50K)

Interestingly, in 1936 the finishing positions were:

1. Collingwood
2. South
3. Melbourne
4. Carlton
5. Geelong
6. Richmond
Norf also bottom two

For this to happen you'd need:

Geel straightset to Coll-then-Freo/WB
Rich beat Bris but lose to Melb
Coll beat Melb & Syd beat Freo/WB
Coll beat Syd

 

[RedWhite4Ever]

Expecting this one to be a close, tight affair - but only if the Swans can stop Melbourne's explosive run off the half back and out of the center clearances/clearances from stoppages.

Just love watching the Demons play - looking forward to being at the MCG for this one.

 

[RedWhite4Ever]

Ins
May
Melksham
Hibberd
Rivers

I think Mays inclusion could well be the difference on this occasion. The Swans have been notoriously unreliable on the MCG.