Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 24 - Cats v Eagles Sat Aug 24th 1:45pm AEST (GMHBA)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Cats by a goal or less

    Votes: 1 3.1%
  • Eagles by a goal or less

    Votes: 1 3.1%
  • Cats by 7 - 20

    Votes: 1 3.1%
  • Eagles by 7 - 20

    Votes: 2 6.3%
  • Cats by a lot

    Votes: 24 75.0%
  • Eagles by a lot

    Votes: 3 9.4%
  • Draw

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    32
  • Poll closed .

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Geelong-vs-WCE.png

4th v 16th

AFL 2024 PREMIERSHIP SEASON ROUND 24
GEELONG V WEST COAST
SATURDAY AUGUST 24TH 1:45PM AEST (GMHBA)


Live scores on BigFooty during the match.

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Teams:
CATS

B: L.Humphries, J.Henry, J.Kolodjashnij
HB: M.Holmes, M.Blicavs, Z.Guthrie
C: M.Duncan, T.Atkins, O.Dempsey
HF: T.Stengle, S.Neale, S.Mannagh
F: B.Close, J.Cameron, O.Henry
FOLL: R.Stanley, P.Dangerfield - C, T.Stewart

I/C: Z.Tuohy, J.Bowes, G.Miers, J.Bews, T.Bruhn
EMG: G.Rohan, O.Mullin, M.Knevitt

IN: Z.Tuohy, J.Bews, T.Bruhn
OUT: O.Mullin (Omitted), M.Knevitt (Omitted), G.Rohan (Managed)

EAGLES
B: T.Cole, H.Edwards, B.Hough
HB: L.Duggan, R.Bazzo, R.Ginbey
C: J.Hunt, E.Yeo, C.Hall
HF: J.Cripps, J.Darling, T.Dewar
F: J.Petruccelle, O.Allen - C, J.Waterman
FOLL: B.Williams, T.Kelly, H.Reid

I/C: C.Chesser, H.Johnston, J.Williams, R.Maric, J.Hutchinson
EMG: M.Flynn, Z.Trew, L.Rawlinson

IN: R.Bazzo, C.Hall, C.Chesser, R.Maric, J.Hutchinson
OUT: A.Witherden (Injured), J.McGovern (Injured), A.Gaff (Retired), L.Ryan (Personal Reason), Z.Trew (Omitted)



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Geelong are the worst team in the 8, but even they couldn't stuff this game up despite playing on their "bogey" ground. Cats in a thriller by 5 points. Geelong are only one "RayGunn" performance away from ending their season.
 
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Think it’s time the afl made the cats play away from their narrow ground in the last round regardless of not being able to play there in finals. Beating a bottom 4 team easily there isn’t good prep for finals.

Certainly cost us big time when we beat the same opposition by 14 goals there in 2022.
 
We could actually drop to eighth if we lose here. Could theoretically finish second as well, without the sort of mental gymnastics it would take to get Collingwood into eighth from here. We haven't shown any capacity to really push a 8-10 goal win into 100+ territory this year, but we've loved a final H&A round Kardinia Park smashing in years gone by.

Likeliest scenario is a fairly uneventful win, one of Port or GWS (or both) also winning and us not really being that close to bridging any gaps in percentage (even if both Port and GWS lose). An interesting wrinkle for us if we have put the game beyond doubt early is we have to wait until the last game for the other results that (may) matter to us.

But, just win the game, first and foremost. Secure fourth place. The way we've gone since late-Autumn, we're bloody lucky to be in that position.
 
On form and location-wise, WB must be at least slightly better than 50% chance to defeat Giants (111.7%) in Ballarat.

Cats (107.7%) has to be a shoe-in to beat Eagles. If we beat Eagles by, say 60 points (90 v 30), our % only goes up to 110.7% but that may be enough, if WB beat Giants by 10-20 pts.

It's do-able. Only fly in the ointment is that Giants will come into game knowing result of Geelong game and what they need to do to avoid being leap-frogged on ladder by the Cats.

I am less optimistic about Dockers' chances of beating Lions Power
 
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On form and location-wise, WB must be at least slightly better than 50% chance to defeat Giants (111.7%) in Ballarat.

Cats (107.7%) has to be a shoe-in to beat Eagles. If we beat Eagles by, say 60 points (90 v 30), our % only goes up to 110.7% but that may be enough, if WB beat Giants by 10-20 pts.

It's do-able. Only fly in the ointment is that Giants will come into game knowing result of Geelong game and what they need to do to avoid being leap-frogged on ladder by the Cats.

I am less optimistic about Dockers' chances of beating Lions
Dockers are no chance of beating the Lions this weekend

because they play Port ;)
 

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Nice to see the appropriate level of fear and concern from the Cats fans here. Did you replace your scoreboard since the last 200 pointer?
 
On form and location-wise, WB must be at least slightly better than 50% chance to defeat Giants (111.7%) in Ballarat.

Cats (107.7%) has to be a shoe-in to beat Eagles. If we beat Eagles by, say 60 points (90 v 30), our % only goes up to 110.7% but that may be enough, if WB beat Giants by 10-20 pts.

It's do-able. Only fly in the ointment is that Giants will come into game knowing result of Geelong game and what they need to do to avoid being leap-frogged on ladder by the Cats.

I am less optimistic about Dockers' chances of beating Lions Power

Yeah, ideally if we're taking requests, matching the biggest margin and scores so far this season (Brisbane 163 v Richmond 44), that would bring our percentage up to a level (113.8) where we'd jump either/both Port and GWS, unless they win (or draw). Would have been nice to be in the position to possibly jump them even if they did win, but oh well.

Just win the game first. All up, fourth isn't too shabby after the external preseason expectations and the up and down season we've had. But if it's clear that we're blowing them off the park 20-40 minutes in, I hope we go for the jugular. The faint sniff of pinching second spot is too valuable to not go all-out for, if the opportunity presents.
 

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Autopsy AFL 2024 Round 24 - Cats v Eagles Sat Aug 24th 1:45pm AEST (GMHBA)

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