Autopsy AFL 2025 Rd 23 - Crows v Pies - Sat August 16th 7:05pm ACT/7:35pm AEST (Adelaide Oval)

[Hobbes]

Our record in home finals is 10-4.

Ports is 10-9

So the statement isn't really accurate, but there have been some famous ones.

Our most recent home loss in a final is 2012, to the eventual premier.

 

[gillon]

Hawthorn almost had Adelaide in Adelaide 2 weeks ago and you say it’s only home ground advantage if played at the G?

If the Grand Final is Adelaide vs Hawthorn, it will be at the G and Hawthorn will have a huge advantage despite finishing lower on the ladder.

Regular season game is totally different, of course the Crows had the advantage in that game.

 

[RCAB]

If the Grand Final is Adelaide vs Hawthorn, it will be at the G and Hawthorn will have a huge advantage despite finishing lower on the ladder.

No. GF day is neutral ground.

 

[Soggy2112]

No. GF day is neutral ground.

It just isn’t though.

 

[RCAB]

It just isn’t though.

But it is

 

[Soggy2112]

But it is

So if the Crows play away to Hawthorn in a prelim, that’s an away game. But one week later and it’s suddenly neutral?

Explain how that works.

 

[RCAB]

So if the Crows play away to Hawthorn in a prelim, that’s an away game. But one week later and it’s suddenly neutral?

Explain how that works.

It comes down to sport psychology. Do you understand how home ground advantage works?

It's the familiarity of crowd with the venue, and the preparation to being at home..

GF is not like that at all.

Different crowd.

Much different preparation to your usual home and away game.

FinalSiren said in his squiggle thread he doesn't award homegrown advantage in grand finals to Victorian tenants because the algorithm noticed no discernible advantage to them.

Even in European Champions league finals, there's been no discernible advantage to the home team playing their final at home, in fact, the last time in 2012, Bayern Munich were the better team and lost it at home.

 

[beerbandit]

Freekicks; Adelaide 25 to Collingwood 18. Collingwood fans bellyaching all day today.
When Collingwood just beat the Bulldogs earlier in the season it was 33 to Collingwood and 14 to Bulldogs! Way over double! It was an extraordinary game, Nathan Williamson is an umpire dogs can never get a free kick from. Collingwood the most looked after club in so many ways, lose with some class.

Really?

20-8 sound familiar?

 

[Soggy2112]

It comes down to sport psychology. Do you understand how home ground advantage works?

It's the familiarity of crowd with the venue, and the preparation to being at home..

GF is not like that at all.

Different crowd.

Much different preparation to your usual home and away game.

FinalSiren said in his squiggle thread he doesn't award homegrown advantage in grand finals to Victorian tenants because the algorithm noticed no discernible advantage to them.

Even in European Champions league finals, there's been no discernible advantage to the home team playing their final at home, in fact, the last time in 2012, Bayern Munich were the better team and lost it at home.

I agree the home ground advantage is less because of the unique preparation and the fact that the crowd is far closer to 50/50 than usual.

However, there is still distinct advantages as one team has to travel, and the other does not. Not only that, in the AFL there are unique ground dimensions, if one team has played there considerably more often they have had far more opportunities to prepare.

Also, despite clubs like Adelaide, Freo, Hawthorn and Geelong having comparable supporter bases in terms of size, if the former two, played the latter two, it is likely the latter would have a greater share of the crowd, because their supporters don’t have to travel.

I see your point about the data, but I really don’t think there’s enough examples yet to come up with reliable evidence that home ground advantage suddenly stops existing on GF day.

 

[DangerSloane]

In other threads and social media, they were quiet as a mouse for 8 years, then all of a sudden they're getting ahead of themselves acting as the premiers already, and ticked off if you point out their inexperience in finals and minor premiers of the past failures including the Crows 2005 and 2017 seasons.

Pointing out something that happened in 2005 isnt really relevant is it?

I mean in that case the whole west coast team are on coke.

Not handling it as well as they did in 05 though I guess given theyve now lost the most games in 3 seasons of any team ever.

 

[Spook]

If the Grand Final is Adelaide vs Hawthorn, it will be at the G and Hawthorn will have a huge advantage despite finishing lower on the ladder.

Regular season game is totally different, of course the Crows had the advantage in that game.

What is the advantage in goals? So how much would Hawthorn have to win to balance out the “Home” ground?

 

[RCAB]

I agree the home ground advantage is less because of the unique preparation and the fact that the crowd is far closer to 50/50 than usual.

However, there is still distinct advantages as one team has to travel, and the other does not. Not only that, in the AFL there are unique ground dimensions, if one team has played there considerably more often they have had far more opportunities to prepare.

Also, despite clubs like Adelaide, Freo, Hawthorn and Geelong having comparable supporter bases in terms of size, if the former two, played the latter two, it is likely the latter would have a greater share of the crowd, because their supporters don’t have to travel.

I see your point about the data, but I really don’t think there’s enough examples yet to come up with reliable evidence that home ground advantage suddenly stops existing on GF day.

Alright I'll give you more examples, as in well known studies in regards to HGA..

Pollard (1986-2006) is really clear on this. HGA is entrenched in league play, but it's weighted by context. It's diminshed in finals or neutralised events, this is what the most well known study says. When you strip away the usual comforts of routine and overwhelmingly partisan crowds then you get almost no advantage,.

Lambert & Du Preez (2007) back this from another angle by studying South African rugby teams crossing 37 time zones in Super 12. Travel fatigue didn’t actually kill or magnify home advantage. Home results were the same before and after tours. So blaming travel alone doesn’t hold up for your argument.

Edwards & Archambault (1979) make a broader point, home advantage exists, but it’s inconsistent in strength and can even flip under pressure. That’s the whole “choking at home” literature (see also Baumeister & Steinhilber, 1984). Finals are exactly where those inconsistencies pop up.

Schwartz & Barsky (1977) drilled down into causes and basically showed crowd support is the main driver, not travel or ground familiarity. Which explains why diluted GF crowds don’t produce the same edge you’d see in a home fortress or a home final.


A lot of the studies say that HGA is attributed to crowds, that spur on performance or influence officiating. Without a parochial one sided crowd at the GF, it becomes a neutral venue.

 

[matthew_s]

Adelaide rocked as livewire forward under AFL investigation

Izak Rankine is facing a ban that could see him miss the Crows’ entire finals series.

7news.com.au

 

[Chronz]

were you saying anything when you beat my team by 1 point with about 5 goals kicked for you from the umps? Nup. short memories. This is just a bit of footy karma

See you on Friday, Daniel.

 

[Shaunbkk]

You are one very loose unit - absolutely cooked written expression. Enjoy your chemicals and golden shower but be careful - the CCP watches South Australian bogans too.

Lol still wiping your bottom with paper thinking its clean I bet - LOL Chemicals Goldens showers you wish!! YOU HAVE ZERO IDEA about me just by a few stupid online keyboard words thrown about S media is hilarious people take it seriously big smelly bot bots seee I can type any shite oh and you ahve never been to China I'd say, you know zero

 

[Carringbush2010]

Collingwood fans bellyaching all day today.

Got evidence of this? Or just a few posters on BF?

 

[Spook]

So if the Crows play away to Hawthorn in a prelim, that’s an away game. But one week later and it’s suddenly neutral?

Explain how that works.

Do you realise that for 80 years all VFL finals were played at Melbourne’s home ground? Never a mention of home ground advantage to Melbourne.

In the WAFL for ever how many years finals were played at Subiacos home ground. Never a mention.

 

[Soggy2112]

Do you realise that for 80 years all VFL finals were played at Melbourne’s home ground? Never a mention of home ground advantage to Melbourne.

In the WAFL for ever how many years finals were played at Subiacos home ground. Never a mention.

I’m sure in those games where Melbourne or Subiaco played then they were at an advantage.

I’m not saying it’s impossible to overcome, but it’s there, and it’s something to consider.

 

[Spook]

I’m sure in those games where Melbourne or Subiaco played then they were at an advantage.

I’m not saying it’s impossible to overcome, but it’s there, and it’s something to consider.

Looking at The results you could say otherwise.

IMO The advantage is the crowd, not the change rooms or the ground shape or the facilities familiarisation.

The crowds are very even on GF day.

I have been to 5 GFs and they are very different to all other games because of the demographic of attendees, lots of corporates, people who can afford the highest tier of club membership to get a guaranteed GFvticket, then the MCG and AFL pure sports lovers with some of them being affiliated to either of then2 teams. The prelims are awsome. They have the real crowd experience and advantage, and it is deafening. Best game I’ve ever been to was 2011 prelim Pies v Hawks, we lost but geez it was a great experience because of the crowd.

 

[raticus_usm]

I am done with pond scum fans. I can give it and can take it as long as it is all just banter. I had the unfortunate situation of calling out a guy using the worst of homophobic slurs after last nights game.

I woke up this morning to a stack of Facebook notifications. This arseh*le comments on photos of myself and my grandkids saying i am a Pedo, commented on my wedding pics calling my wife a dog and much more. Over a ****ing footy game.....it was a burner account so as per normal hiding behind the internet.

The thing is my Facebook was set for friends only so no idea he managed to get away with it. No idea what team he supports and don't care. I was sooo wild. Blocked now and reported to Facebook is all i can do.

I was there last night and the booing got out of hand. Houston will cop it for the showdown, Billy as an ex crow (tho i dont think he deserves it) and Daicos boys cos they are too good. Any other reason was pathetic and I hate what it has done. The Crows had done so well and deserved praise from outside but now the season is tarnished. I have gone from being proud of our season to being embarrassed.

 

[Fadge]

Our most recent home loss in a final is 2012, to the eventual premier.

That's interesting!

 

[South of the Yarra]

From 10pts clear to most probably missing top 4 and bundled out first week, has there ever been a cliff drop like it?

Has there ever been a worse prediction?

 

[South of the Yarra]

NO TOP 4 FOR PIES

Maybe there is

 

[dean33]

Has there ever been a worse prediction?

You struck gold getting the crows first up. Mac Andrew gets that free they missed against Port and you get hawks in an elimination final and you're out. Been very lucky the pies but you're luck is running out.

 

[South of the Yarra]

You struck gold getting the crows first up. Mac Andrew gets that free they missed against Port and you get hawks in an elimination final and you're out. Been very lucky the pies but you're luck is running out.

Awww woulda, coulda, shoulda
Keep up the prophesy