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AFL 2025 Second Preliminary Final - Cats v Hawks Fri Sept 19th 7:40pm EST (MCG)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Cats by a goal or less

    Votes: 9 3.4%
  • Cats by 7 - 20

    Votes: 72 27.6%
  • Cats by a lot

    Votes: 54 20.7%
  • Hawks by a goal or less

    Votes: 36 13.8%
  • Hawks by 7 - 20

    Votes: 70 26.8%
  • Hawks by a lot

    Votes: 13 5.0%
  • Draw

    Votes: 7 2.7%

  • Total voters
    261
  • Poll closed .

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Nah the free hit talk is pure copium. You see it from some supporters every year. Next year is next year. There are no guarantees and there are no chances that should be wasted.

I don’t actually rate our squad atm. Of course there are no guarantees but I can’t see a midfield of Newcombe, Worpel and Nash in a Grand Final. Not when you’ve got midfields like the Lions still in contention.
 
I can’t remember a time in the last 30 years that neutrals have actively supported Hawthorn. In the 2013 GF I saw tons of head ****ed MCC members wearing purple.

Most neutrals would rather stab their eyes out with a pencil than support one of these teams. The only team I can see neutrals getting behind is the Lions.
Geelong have shifted that. Trust me. The deathriding, vitriol and conspiracy theories have only grown year-on-year. Hawthorn had the good grace to slide down the ladder for a few years so people's stance on them has softened compared to a decade ago. And they aren't running 5000 rorts.
 
I don’t actually rate our squad atm. Of course there are no guarantees but I can’t see a midfield of Newcombe, Worpel and Nash in a Grand Final. Not when you’ve got midfields like the Lions still in contention.
Well, that lowly rated squad have won a hell of a lot of games since about round 7 last year. Many of them with the midfield you have outlined there (+Ward). Nobody is talking about Geelong or Collingwood's incredible midfields either and yet with Hawthorn these 3 teams are the favourites.
 
I’m shocked we are here without Day, given our midfield woes. Next year is completely different IF we can fix the mix. That’s not down playing our chances thats realism IMO.

You were if I remember rightly, outright favourites with the bookies to win the flag just a couple of weeks into the competition.

I’m not for a second saying ‘you need to win this year because who knows when you’ll get another shot’ because plainly you have a stack of good players who will be around for ages who will be at their current level for a while or in the case of a whole chunk of them, will get better still.

But a) you’re there now. You do have this chance right now same as we do so this is a gilt-edged one, not a hypothetical one. I actually thought after 2022 that of all the flags we’ve won since 2007, 2023 was a real rolled gold chance to win another one. I didn’t see a logical challenger, we had some really good young players and only Selwood and Smith were departing from memory. We didn’t even make finals due to some indifferent form and a bad run of injuries.

B) you’ve probably gotten more mileage out of a few guys than you thought you would. There is no way in hell anyone would have thought Gunston would do what he did this year. I love Jack Gunston and that’s hard for me to admit about a Hawks player: but mate I thought he was cooked even when he went to Brisbane. I’m staggered by how good he’s been. But if he can’t replicate that next year, who fills that gap and keeps your forward line where it is? Dear has a lot of ability but he’s probably not ready to lead a forward line and Chol has his moments but he’s not elite.

So while I definitely think the Hawks will be contending for a while over the next 5 years this COULD be your best crack at it maybe for a couple of years.

(Then again Gunston could do it all again next year, Watson could have a 45 goal season and either of Dear or Chol could tear the comp apart so who the f**k knows)
 

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Well, that lowly rated squad have won a hell of a lot of games since about round 7 last year. Many of them with the midfield you have outlined there (+Ward). Nobody is talking about Geelong or Collingwood's incredible midfields either and yet with Hawthorn these 3 teams are the favourites.
I know. They regularly surprise me. Last year they had a backline anchored by Sam Frost and then they went out and got Tom Barass and Josh Battle — which took us from a flash in the pan side into a legitimate challenger. I still think we need to shop for Merrett and Petracca to take that next step again. One thing they have is an excellent coach and belief.

You were if I remember rightly, outright favourites with the bookies to win the flag just a couple of weeks into the competition.

I’m not for a second saying ‘you need to win this year because who knows when you’ll get another shot’ because plainly you have a stack of good players who will be around for ages who will be at their current level for a while or in the case of a whole chunk of them, will get better still.

But a) you’re there now. You do have this chance right now same as we do so this is a gilt-edged one, not a hypothetical one. I actually thought after 2022 that of all the flags we’ve won since 2007, 2023 was a real rolled gold chance to win another one. I didn’t see a logical challenger, we had some really good young players and only Selwood and Smith were departing from memory. We didn’t even make finals due to some indifferent form and a bad run of injuries.

B) you’ve probably gotten more mileage out of a few guys than you thought you would. There is no way in hell anyone would have thought Gunston would do what he did this year. I love Jack Gunston and that’s hard for me to admit about a Hawks player: but mate I thought he was cooked even when he went to Brisbane. I’m staggered by how good he’s been. But if he can’t replicate that next year, who fills that gap and keeps your forward line where it is? Dear has a lot of ability but he’s probably not ready to lead a forward line and Chol has his moments but he’s not elite.

So while I definitely think the Hawks will be contending for a while over the next 5 years this COULD be your best crack at it maybe for a couple of years.

(Then again Gunston could do it all again next year, Watson could have a 45 goal season and either of Dear or Chol could tear the comp apart so who the f**k knows)

We were, when we were 4-0 and also pre-season with Brisbane bizarrely after the Grand Final. But that’s just hype around hokball than substance. Most of us who watch them week after week have been far less optimistic…
 
I can’t remember a time in the last 30 years that neutrals have actively supported Hawthorn. In the 2013 GF I saw tons of head ****ed MCC members wearing purple.

Most neutrals would rather stab their eyes out with a pencil than support one of these teams. The only team I can see neutrals getting behind is the Lions. As for Essendon fans, lol…
Among normals the support might be more split but the GDS on BigFooty has been pretty unhinged lately, just take a look at any of the threads about Bailey Smith this week.

Hard to think of a worse prelim series for a neutral supporter in the history of the final eight. The three most successful clubs this century plus the biggest club in the land who just won a flag two years ago. Or looking at it another way, the three most recent flag winners plus the team who just had a threepeat a decade ago.
 
13 but we’ll take the extra.

Don’t forget the major 1991 SF too. The Cats lost that despite dominating the final quarter. Had they won, they probably win the 1991 flag.

Meh don't know about that. We had issues with WC as we saw the following week.
 
Among normals the support might be more split but the GDS on BigFooty has been pretty unhinged lately, just take a look at any of the threads about Bailey Smith this week.

The bubble outside bigfooty, Facebook and the nuffies on SEN is completely different. Most fans hate traditional rivals but otherwise don’t give a shit about neutral games. So unless you’re an Essendon fan, who really cares who wins Friday? Collingwood is a bit different. But if the Lions defeat the Pies (my tip) pretty much every Victorian neutral would support Brisbane over Geelong or Hawthorn if that is the GF pairing.
Hard to think of a worse prelim series for a neutral supporter in the history of the final eight. The three most successful clubs this century plus the biggest club in the land who just won a flag two years ago. Or looking at it another way, the three most recent flag winners plus the team who just had a threepeat a decade ago.

It’s actually worse than that…

AFL era (1990-2024)

Geelong (4 flags) v Hawthorn (5 flags)
Collingwood (3 flags) v Brisbane (4 flags)

Switch out Brisbane for the Eagles and rotate the games and it’s the 2011 finals series leading into a probable 2011 GF replay. Good thing equalisation has worked…
 
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Switch out Brisbane for the Eagles and rotate the games and it’s the 2011 finals series leading into a probable 2011 GF replay. Good thing equalisation has worked…
2011 is another good call, actually. Those four prelim teams each won a flag in the last five years while we accounted for the remaining one, at least you guys have gone a decade without a flag this time.

Could probably argue each of those teams were more unlikeable then than they are now. I'd say Pies definitely were with Eddie running the show and with how well-known that POS Joffa was. Hawks probably too with Kennett's prominent involvement in the club back then. The Eagles had a lot of controversy following them around that era, certainly more than the Lions have had. I'll let others judge whether they hated Selwood, Scarlett, Stevie J and first-year coach Chris Scott more than Smith, Danger and 15 years of Scott.
 
The bubble outside bigfooty, Facebook and the nuffies on SEN is completely different. Most fans hate traditional rivals but otherwise don’t give a shit about neutral games. So unless you’re an Essendon fan, who really cares who wins Friday? Collingwood is a bit different. But if the Lions defeat the Pies (my top) pretty much every Victorian neutral would support Brisbane over Geelong or Hawthorn if that is the GF pairing.


It’s actually worse than that…

AFL era (1990-2024)

Geelong (4 flags) v Hawthorn (5 flags)
Collingwood (3 flags) v Brisbane (4 flags)

Switch out Brisbane for the Eagles and rotate the games and it’s the 2011 finals series leading into a probable 2011 GF replay. Good thing equalisation has worked…

It’s an interesting thing, equalisation.

Penrith’s ridiculous run of 4 straight titles - and don’t forget, during that run, they’ve been absolutely bled of a raft of gun players: Crichton, Burton, Momirovski, Koroisau, Capewell, Kikau, May, and Leniu were in their 17 for the first title in 2021 and were all gone by 2024 - that’s half the team. Staines and Salmon played in 2022 and have since left. Jarome Luai, James Fisher-Harris and Sunia Turuva from last year are all gone now as well and they have STILL made it through to week two of the finals. This is a side from another planet. And they haven’t signed a single high profile player this whole time. Their success makes it look like the NRL hasn’t done a thing to equalise the comp. And yeah you see teams like the Storm there every year, the Roosters make finals most years etc.

But with no draft or academies or whatever, just a cap, there have been titles this century to Penrith (5), Melbourne (5 - 2 stripped), Roosters (4), Brisbane (2), Manly (2), Wests, North Queensland, Bulldogs, Newcastle, Cronulla, St George-Illawarra, Souths.

The Raiders (one - and they were minor premiers this year), Warriors (two), Parramatta (three) have all made grand finals. The Dolphins have only been in the comp 3 seasons and have narrowly missed the finals each time. The Titans remain the sole basket case.

In the AFL the Hawks (four), Cats (four), Lions (four), Tigers (three), Eagles (two), Swans (two), Magpies (two) have 21 titles between them.

The Power, Dogs, Demons, Bombers have one each.

The Saints (two), Crows (one), Giants (one), Dockers (one) have all made grand finals. The Suns, Blues and North haven’t fired a shot. And one of the AFL sides that has fired a shot (although you could to some extent say the same about Newcastle though they have been to a prelim in the last 15 years) is the Bombers and that was 25 years ago.

So: in the NRL since 2000 12 teams have won titles. Maybe more if Melbourne didn’t do what they did. Parramatta certainly wishes that. 3 more that have made grand finals.

11 in the afl. Plus four grand finalists

If you explained the two different models to a stranger who was totally unfamiliar with both codes - and then added in the extra caveat of ‘and one of these codes went added extra teams well before the other (AFL added new teams in 2011/12, NRL in 2023 so in theory there were more chances to have more teams winning or making grand finals) and asked them ‘if there is a competition with more teams in it and has a salary cap, a draft, a rookie draft, development academies, trade periods, free agency, compensation picks, would it have a greater percentage of success spread than a competition that simply has a salary cap?’ I doubt many people would say ‘no.’
 

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I’m shocked we are here without Day, given our midfield woes. Next year is completely different IF we can fix the mix. That’s not down playing our chances thats realism IMO.
After we lost those consecutive games to gold coast, brisbane & collingwood i thought we were done too.

Great effort to make and win 2 interstate finals.

Big opportunity awaits.
 
I don’t actually rate our squad atm. Of course there are no guarantees but I can’t see a midfield of Newcombe, Worpel and Nash in a Grand Final. Not when you’ve got midfields like the Lions still in contention.
Ward has really stepped up probably played his best game against Adelaide.

Need more out of Dylan Moore.
 
Don't buy that Hawthorn have nothing to lose because they are underdogs. Both teams are 2 wins away from a flag so giving it a crack alone wont cut the mustard.

Geelong deserved favorites however whether it will be a match probably depends on fitness. If any of Gunston, Impey or Ginnivan dont get up ( and are fit) then I don't like our chances. Depth really getting tested

However if Geelong are a bit off their game and Hawthorn are on, it could do either way.
 
Don't buy that Hawthorn have nothing to lose because they are underdogs. Both teams are 2 wins away from a flag so giving it a crack alone wont cut the mustard.

Geelong deserved favorites however whether it will be a match probably depends on fitness. If any of Gunston, Impey or Ginnivan dont get up ( and are fit) then I don't like our chances. Depth really getting tested

However if Geelong are a bit off their game and Hawthorn are on, it could do either way.
You never know Richmond were clearly the best team in 2018 but put in an absolute stinker in the prelim with Collingwood playing out of their skins.
 
You never know Richmond were clearly the best team in 2018 but put in an absolute stinker in the prelim with Collingwood playing out of their skins.

We rarely put in a howler. I can think of probably:

- the Suns game in Darwin last year where we were just belted from pillar to post.

- the Carlton game last year was pretty average. The Carlton game this year wasn’t much better.

- the second Brisbane game this year.

- the Giants game in Sydney this year.

That’s probably been it?? I think off the top of my head over the last couple of seasons. We are definitely beatable im not saying otherwise because we do have howler quarters and even halves but those are the only actual games that stand out. The Port Adelaide game last year and the Giants match that took place soon after were prime examples of our usual ‘bad’ games in that we played some really bad footy for a while and during that time the other team could make hay and in the Port Adelaide game in particular they really made us pay: they led by 52 just before half time. We got it back to a point in the last quarter and looked like we would win the game.

As a broad generalisation if we are a bit off our best we will give the other team a look, but they have to make the most of it because we will get a chance to bring the game back on our terms at some point; there aren’t TOO many games where we just roll over
 

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I don’t actually rate our squad atm. Of course there are no guarantees but I can’t see a midfield of Newcombe, Worpel and Nash in a Grand Final. Not when you’ve got midfields like the Lions still in contention.
Hawks tall forwards are a worry too especially against a strong intercepting team like Geelong. Lewis is playing poor, Dear injured. I think we need to bring Ramsden in for his height and agility over CJ. In the Adelaide game he gave away free kicks, soft goals and missed one himself.
 
Assuming all the neutrals will be cheering on Hawthorn. Why would you want to see the same old teams running around again on grand final day? The neutrals should be supporting the new kids on the block.
I don’t think Hawks will be who they are cheering
Mitchell has a lot of dislike in the afl community - ultra arrogant ways are very off putting
Geelong last week with their attacks on women will see so many people disgusted with their culture- Smith is very tiresome, a long year of being an complete ahole
Everyone hates Collingwood regardless
Lions will be the neutrals choice, this year at least.
 

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AFL 2025 Second Preliminary Final - Cats v Hawks Fri Sept 19th 7:40pm EST (MCG)

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