AFL AFL 2025

[the_big_sav]

Norm Smith market up on sportsbet

Keays @ 51
Thilthorpe @ 34
Bailey @ 126

 

[the_big_sav]

AFL Season Wins I dont mind.

I agree with Kane Cornes and King , Gold Coast over 11.5 Win (Kanes Lock), North Melbourne Over 5.5 Wins (another one of Kanes Locks) in their SEN preview I heard this week. I have 11 selections agreeing with Kane, and 6 agreeing with David King out of 18.

Multi 1- GC Over 11.5 Wins, North Over 5.5 Wins, Brisbane Over 14.5 Wins. Odds $6.65 (0.50u)

Multi 2- GC Over 11.5 Wins, North Over 5.5 Wins, Brisbane Over 14.5 Wins, Melbourne Under 11.5 Wins. Odds $12.77 (0.25u)

Multi 3- GC Over 11.5 Wins, North Over 5.5 Wins, Brisbane Over 14.5 Wins, Melbourne Under 11.5 Wins, Collingwood Over 13.5 Wins. Odds $25.03 (0.125u)

Kangas gonna let you down now

 

[Bucking Bronco]

If Gold Coast lose to GWS, which I think they probably will, and lose to Port the following week (unlikely, but Ken Hinkley/ Travis Boak

10

Travis Boak

Age

37

Ht

183cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.7

5star

K

11.6

4star

HB

12.0

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

4.4

5star

CL

4.6

5star

D

22.0

5star

K

11.0

4star

HB

11.0

5star

M

2.4

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

7.4

3star

HB

9.0

5star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.4

4star

's last game, game at Adelaide Oval) & Fremantle beat Brisbane this week, GC will likely be the team that misses finals.

No one is even offering a market for them to miss top 8, but the odds would be ~$100

 

[based]

and then lose to essendon?

 

[Bucking Bronco]

and then lose to essendon?

No, they'll beat Essendon, but they'll only be on 15 wins so would lose 8th spot to Bulldogs who have a much bigger percentage.

I don't think they will ultimately lose to Port, but as a young team that doesn't travel that well, $100 odds to miss is going to be +EV if Port are really up for the game

 

[Jugada]

No, they'll beat Essendon, but they'll only be on 15 wins so would lose 8th spot to Bulldogs who have a much bigger percentage.

I don't think they will ultimately lose to Port, but as a young team that doesn't travel that well, $100 odds to miss is going to be +EV if Port are really up for the game

If the Suns beat Essendon they pretty much can't miss.

Not only do all the things you need to happen to happen but Dogs would also need to beat Fremantle, Hawks need to beat Melbourne, GWS have to beat St Kilda, Pies have to win a match and then lastly both Brisbane and Hawthorn would have to win their last match of the year and given they play each other that might be difficult

 

[Bucking Bronco]

If the Suns beat Essendon they pretty much can't miss.

Not only do all the things you need to happen to happen but Dogs would also need to beat Fremantle, Hawks need to beat Melbourne, GWS have to beat St Kilda, Pies have to win a match and then lastly both Brisbane and Hawthorn would have to win their last match of the year and given they play each other that might be difficult

Lol, they are all shoe-in games.



That's my ladder predictor, using the scenario of Fremantle beating Brisbane this week, and then Brisbane beating Hawthorn at the Gabba with their season on the line next week + GC losing to GWS/ Port.

It's not that crazy honestly.

I was wrong though, I didn't realise Hawthorn would be on the same wins as GC in that event, so it would come down to percentage.

I guess in hindsight it is pretty unlikely Hawthorn would catch Gold Coast on percentage

 

[Bucking Bronco]

This is my real ladder predictor.

I was just spitballing some shit.

I wouldn't waste my time betting on GC to miss if it was available, I just noticed that the odds seemed wild

 

[Bucking Bronco]

I think the loser of Fremantle/ Brisbane will be the team that misses the finals, because Fremantle will lose to Bulldogs next week, and Hawthorn will beat Brisbane next week too if they're both playing for the final spot in the 8

 

[Bucking Bronco]

2.5U - Fremantle to miss top 8 - $8.50

When Bulldogs beat them in the final round to take their spot, my portfolio is going to be rounded out perfectly.

It's been a profitable season

Panned out exactly how we expected.

Win or lose, we extracted maximum value for our members.

Essentially we got the Bulldogs at $8.50 to beat Fremantle, when the market has them at $1.35

 

[targett]

Does it cover the membership lol

 

[sohohoho]

Does it cover the membership lol

if ignore all the other losers yeah

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Does it cover the membership lol

Membership is free.

That's what I call people who are following my tips

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Don’t understand these odds, especially Thilthorpe and Darcy. If King kicks half a dozen on Wednesday surely he deserves a spot.

 

[Jugada]

Jezza value even at $1.01

Thilthorpe odds look horrendously bad

 

[pendlebury_10]

Don’t understand these odds, especially Thilthorpe and Darcy. If King kicks half a dozen on Wednesday surely he deserves a spot.

All Australian team is announced Thursday night, I dare say the team will already be picked.

 

[KENT2008]

Giants over 14.5
Brisbane over 14.5
Sydney under 14.5
Geelong over 13.5
Port under 13.5
Adelaide over 11.5
G.Coast over 11.5
Melbourne under 11.5
W Coast over 5.5 Multi @339 Boosted

Unlucky with weagles but amazing hit rate

 

[Rank]

Unlucky with weagles but amazing hit rate

Yeah mate, i got greedy, it was the last leg I put in.

 

[Rank]

Unlucky with weagles but amazing hit rate

Still a chance to hit a big one I put on early in the year if Crows make the GF and Dawson wins the Brownlow.
The loss of Rankine and the below par Dawson game against North hurts but ya never know. Still a chance.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

10U - Sydney top 8 - $2.10

10U - Richmond wooden spoon - $2.80

5U - Geelong miss top 4 - $1.90

5U - Brisbane miss top 4 - $1.80

5U - Brisbane miss top 4 - $2.60

2.5U - Richmond wooden spoon - $7

10U - Fremantle to miss top 8 - $4.50

2.5U - Fremantle to miss top 8 - $8.50

12.5U - Collingwood top 4 - $2

7.5U - Collingwood top 4 - $2

All my value bets lost except for the Collingwood one.

We only won 1 bet for the year.

However we extracted maximum value from every bet, so in that sense the season was a huge success.

Everything happened like we predicted it.

I was on this year

 

[based]

those last 5 lines are quite perplexing

 

[dontlimitme]

those last 5 lines are quite perplexing

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Futures bet:

Hawthorn to miss final 2 - 20U - $1.54

 

[Bucking Bronco]

15U - Geelong premiers - $2.75

 

[pendlebury_10]

Futures bet:

Hawthorn to miss final 2 - 20U - $1.54

So basically Geelong to win ?