AFL 'Bet of the Round' POTY

Should we allow members 1 pass per year?

  • YES

    Votes: 4 80.0%
  • NO

    Votes: 1 20.0%

  • Total voters
    5
  • Poll closed .

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JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,445
2,189
AFL Club
Essendon
Well what a ripsnorter of a final round. Lids and NP who've been bobbing heads all year both win their bets but Lids comes good with a Josh Caddy hail mary to take the top spot. Mookieb had a great line multi at the end to shoot from 7th to 3rd.
Was great to see people's specialities form as the year went on.
Lids nailing some big tigers bets. 9/11 bets were on the tigers.
NP as ever hot on the GS markets.
Langdon excellent on the TP lines hitting 7/8 when just going a single line.
Ohhok consistent all year picking the best from all over the market.
The group ROI is 19%, meaning that if you took all the bets on the board all year, you'd be doing very well for yourself.
So well done everyone and thanks for participating.
There's murmuring around the punting board water cooler that someone, possibly the Grot might be running a finals tipping comp.
If you want your individual spreadsheets, DM me.

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Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
788
731
AFL Club
West Coast
With rules as mentioned my bet would be Jason Castagna anytime gs at 1.80 on sb
- Has saluted 20 of past 25.
- Has hit scoreboard 24 of past 25 with only miss being that horror first game back of year when both sides only kicked 5 goals.
-Weather seems fine and shouldn't worry his game style anyway.
-They play GWS who have given up 4th most points against for the year and it looks like the smaller brigade are doing the main damage.
In castagna we trust.
 

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JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,445
2,189
AFL Club
Essendon
Whats the point of not tallying units/odds of the bet? Defeats the purpose of +EV betting if you have to shoehorn your bet into odds. I personally don't consider win % a good metric for a leader board as you could top the leader board and still be down for the year.
I was just thinking this. Someone could tip 55% at an average of $1.80 odds and be in the negatives, whilst one person could tip at 52% at an average of $2 odds and be in the positives. Perhaps it being measured by %ROI would be a fairer/more accurate way of doing things?
Good points.
I guess I was just trying to keep it simple/being lazy.
Rule change! People can put on a bet of 1U on any bet they choose and the leaderboard will be based on ROI. However, I've only got so much time so do not split you 1U into percentages. Meaning, no BRM.
 

JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,445
2,189
AFL Club
Essendon
Also don't really agree with the whole elitist restrictions on who can participate.
I know what you mean. They're only in place because i don't have the time to manage an open invitation competition. And if it was first in best dressed up to 12 members we would be getting less of the best tipsters. We're probably still missing some of the better tipsters because I'm not always paying attention and I have my own biases. So sorry to the people who miss out.
If someone wanted to start an open invite competition along the same lines I'd be more than happy to relinquish the reins.
 

langdon19

All Australian
Dec 2, 2008
896
600
perth
AFL Club
West Coast
I’ll kick off on Thursday night
Gcs vs Dogs U127.5 SB

edit: I’ve worked this game to 117 points, 10 point difference to the books is a one unit play to me. At the time of the bet 6-10mm of rain was forecast which has its own correction factor (2nd, 3rd and 4th unit added by me for my personal bets) rain backed off this morning which is annoying 2-6mm but I had this at 117 in the dry so all cool. At this stage I can cash out or middle a few units at my leisure. Atm I will hold. Tgs down to 116, A middle here between 116-127 points is awesome value.
 
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Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
834
977
AFL Club
Adelaide
Good points.
I guess I was just trying to keep it simple/being lazy.
Rule change! People can put on a bet of 1U on any bet they choose and the leaderboard will be based on ROI. However, I've only got so much time so do not split you 1U into percentages. Meaning, no BRM.
Yeh definitely know what you mean RE time. I’m no excel guru, but how hard would it be to set up a spread sheets with three columns; the first two with won percentage and average odds, and the third being column 1 and 2 multiplied together to equal ROI
 

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JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,445
2,189
AFL Club
Essendon
Yeh definitely know what you mean RE time. I’m no excel guru, but how hard would it be to set up a spread sheets with three columns; the first two with won percentage and average odds, and the third being column 1 and 2 multiplied together to equal ROI
I can knock something up quickly in excel if you want, Junior.
All good guys, I'm on it.
 

squeaky1000

Senior List
Apr 30, 2018
224
293
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Sounds like a bit of fun, cheers for the nomination JuniorWatch.
Kicking off with Carlton -9.5 $2 lines at lads or $1.90 everywhere else.
North are a rabble atm, injuries everywhere but even without them I rate them as probably a bottom 4 side. Brown is terribly out of form and should get sat on by Weitering, hard to see where goals come from for them even if Zurhaar comes back in you cannot be relying on the likes of Josh Walker to kick you a winning score.
Blues have been impressive the last two weeks and pretty solid all year tbh bar the Saints game. Moving the ball really well, McDonald probably goes to Cripps but back the rest of the midfield group to win enough of the ball and the scoring potential between the two forward lines is light years apart once they get it in there. Expect they will be pretty fired up for redemption after Gray broke their hearts and happy to take a goal and a half line.
 

Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
834
977
AFL Club
Adelaide
Posted in the round thread, but this is my stand out pick.
GWS -5.5 @ $2 (lads)

-Grand Final rematch Friday night, except this time round Richmond will be without Caddy, Cotchin, Houli, Edwards, Prestia, Nankervis, Ellis (Asturbry looks likely to return which is a plus for the Tiges). GWS will have a bit of extra grunt to bring to his one after being embarrassed last September and have the opportunity to play at their home this time round.
-Toby Greene expected to return, a huge in for the Giants.
-Some of the GWS stars beginning to find some form.
-Taranto a game better.
-Giants up against the wall. They'd still rate themselves as premiership fancies, but a few losses sees them currently outside the 8.
-GWS go into this one a little undervalued due to facing IMO 3/4 of the benchmark sides in the comp in the last 4 weeks (Port, Bris, Collingwood). In which they narrowly scraped past Collingwood, put the Hawks to the sword the following week, before fading late to the Power and being out done by the Lions. This has seen the line already move from -4.5 to 5.5.
-You could also make a case for the Tigers being overvalued. Wins vs a depleted Sydney, and a lowly out of form Kangaroos (arguably the 16th and 17th sides in the comp) in both matches key players were missing and lost early.
-Giants sit 18th in the comp for average inside 50s per game and have failed to win this count in any game this season. This has been made up by their high efficiency rate when entering the forward 50 (second best in comp). The Giants have copped a bit of flack for this stat and will be aware that they're not playing at the best. I expect them to completely dominate the midfield battle this week and attempt to get the ball inside their 50 a little quicker.
 

OhhDeledio

Club Legend
Jul 30, 2014
2,994
6,125
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
gonna go an early goal scorer pick

sam day 2+ goals @7.50 on sportsbet

unreal value for a guy who spends most his time playing deep forward and has done it 3/7 games so far this year. if you looked at some of the other games and players who are paying less than him, you have guys like coniglio (2 goals, 1/7 2+) cripps (4 goals, 1/7) travis boak (4 goals, 0/7) at $7, jackson hately who hasnt even kicked a goal this year at $6.50, parish (4 goals, 1/6) at $5.50 and others. all midfielders that are priced lower than a key forward and there are others there if you look. ben king will probably be the focus of the dogs defence which should give day a more favourable match up. too good value not to have a go at i reckon
 

Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
834
977
AFL Club
Adelaide
Some of us are banned from promotional markets like the 2 above, so in fairness to all i'll add in 'no promo markets' to the rules.
So squeaky1000 and Ohh Ok For the above markets i'll take you both for $1.90 lines unless you can find something better.
That’s fair, think BetEasy and 365 usually set their price at $1.91 (every cent counts 😂). Interested to hear what other people’s experinces are for the $2 lines though. I’m completely promo restricted with Ladbrokes, but still get the $2 lines.
 

OhhDeledio

Club Legend
Jul 30, 2014
2,994
6,125
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
gonna go an early goal scorer pick

sam day 2+ goals @7.50 on sportsbet

unreal value for a guy who spends most his time playing deep forward and has done it 3/7 games so far this year. if you looked at some of the other games and players who are paying less than him, you have guys like coniglio (2 goals, 1/7 2+) cripps (4 goals, 1/7) travis boak (4 goals, 0/7) at $7, jackson hately who hasnt even kicked a goal this year at $6.50, parish (4 goals, 1/6) at $5.50 and others. all midfielders that are priced lower than a key forward and there are others there if you look. ben king will probably be the focus of the dogs defence which should give day a more favourable match up. too good value not to have a go at i reckon
also currently his ags is @ 2.10 at sportsbet so i could have gone safer here but will see how we go 😎
 

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