AFL 'Bet of the Round' POTY

Should we allow members 1 pass per year?

  • YES

    Votes: 4 80.0%

  • NO

    Votes: 1 20.0%
  • Total voters
    5
  • Poll closed .

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iluvparis NonPhixion


~24 hours to go before you get your 3 bets in. If you dont, I am automatically awarding myself Punter of The Year title. :drunk:

Im kinda hoping neither of you send me in your bets.:$




Just on that, if your bet is voided, there is no opportunity to resubmit another bet. Hence pick wisely and be aware of late players potentially being an out.

Its all about strategy and being the most cunning and astute of all punters in this Grand Final.


balmainforever Chism can you please make this thread a sticky if possible just till this time next week? Thanks. The winner deserves to be acknowledged widely on this forum, to achieve punter of the year in AFL is no easy feat esp with all the bs rules I have made ad hoc on the fly.
 

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With rules as mentioned my bet would be Jason Castagna anytime gs at 1.80 on sb
- Has saluted 20 of past 25.
- Has hit scoreboard 24 of past 25 with only miss being that horror first game back of year when both sides only kicked 5 goals.
-Weather seems fine and shouldn't worry his game style anyway.
-They play GWS who have given up 4th most points against for the year and it looks like the smaller brigade are doing the main damage.
In castagna we trust.
 

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alhay6 said:
Whats the point of not tallying units/odds of the bet? Defeats the purpose of +EV betting if you have to shoehorn your bet into odds. I personally don't consider win % a good metric for a leader board as you could top the leader board and still be down for the year.
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Ohh Ok said:
I was just thinking this. Someone could tip 55% at an average of $1.80 odds and be in the negatives, whilst one person could tip at 52% at an average of $2 odds and be in the positives. Perhaps it being measured by %ROI would be a fairer/more accurate way of doing things?
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Good points.
I guess I was just trying to keep it simple/being lazy.
Rule change! People can put on a bet of 1U on any bet they choose and the leaderboard will be based on ROI. However, I've only got so much time so do not split you 1U into percentages. Meaning, no BRM.
 
alhay6 said:
Also don't really agree with the whole elitist restrictions on who can participate.
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I know what you mean. They're only in place because i don't have the time to manage an open invitation competition. And if it was first in best dressed up to 12 members we would be getting less of the best tipsters. We're probably still missing some of the better tipsters because I'm not always paying attention and I have my own biases. So sorry to the people who miss out.
If someone wanted to start an open invite competition along the same lines I'd be more than happy to relinquish the reins.
 
I’ll kick off on Thursday night
Gcs vs Dogs U127.5 SB

edit: I’ve worked this game to 117 points, 10 point difference to the books is a one unit play to me. At the time of the bet 6-10mm of rain was forecast which has its own correction factor (2nd, 3rd and 4th unit added by me for my personal bets) rain backed off this morning which is annoying 2-6mm but I had this at 117 in the dry so all cool. At this stage I can cash out or middle a few units at my leisure. Atm I will hold. Tgs down to 116, A middle here between 116-127 points is awesome value.
 
Last edited:
JuniorWatch said:
Good points.
I guess I was just trying to keep it simple/being lazy.
Rule change! People can put on a bet of 1U on any bet they choose and the leaderboard will be based on ROI. However, I've only got so much time so do not split you 1U into percentages. Meaning, no BRM.
Click to expand...
Yeh definitely know what you mean RE time. I’m no excel guru, but how hard would it be to set up a spread sheets with three columns; the first two with won percentage and average odds, and the third being column 1 and 2 multiplied together to equal ROI
 

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Ohh Ok said:
Yeh definitely know what you mean RE time. I’m no excel guru, but how hard would it be to set up a spread sheets with three columns; the first two with won percentage and average odds, and the third being column 1 and 2 multiplied together to equal ROI
Click to expand...
burge13 said:
I can knock something up quickly in excel if you want, Junior.
Click to expand...
All good guys, I'm on it.
 
Sounds like a bit of fun, cheers for the nomination JuniorWatch.
Kicking off with Carlton -9.5 $2 lines at lads or $1.90 everywhere else.
North are a rabble atm, injuries everywhere but even without them I rate them as probably a bottom 4 side. Brown is terribly out of form and should get sat on by Weitering, hard to see where goals come from for them even if Zurhaar comes back in you cannot be relying on the likes of Josh Walker to kick you a winning score.
Blues have been impressive the last two weeks and pretty solid all year tbh bar the Saints game. Moving the ball really well, McDonald probably goes to Cripps but back the rest of the midfield group to win enough of the ball and the scoring potential between the two forward lines is light years apart once they get it in there. Expect they will be pretty fired up for redemption after Gray broke their hearts and happy to take a goal and a half line.
 
Posted in the round thread, but this is my stand out pick.
Ohh Ok said:
GWS -5.5 @ $2 (lads)

-Grand Final rematch Friday night, except this time round Richmond will be without Caddy, Cotchin, Houli, Edwards, Prestia, Nankervis, Ellis (Asturbry looks likely to return which is a plus for the Tiges). GWS will have a bit of extra grunt to bring to his one after being embarrassed last September and have the opportunity to play at their home this time round.
-Toby Greene expected to return, a huge in for the Giants.
-Some of the GWS stars beginning to find some form.
-Taranto a game better.
-Giants up against the wall. They'd still rate themselves as premiership fancies, but a few losses sees them currently outside the 8.
-GWS go into this one a little undervalued due to facing IMO 3/4 of the benchmark sides in the comp in the last 4 weeks (Port, Bris, Collingwood). In which they narrowly scraped past Collingwood, put the Hawks to the sword the following week, before fading late to the Power and being out done by the Lions. This has seen the line already move from -4.5 to 5.5.
-You could also make a case for the Tigers being overvalued. Wins vs a depleted Sydney, and a lowly out of form Kangaroos (arguably the 16th and 17th sides in the comp) in both matches key players were missing and lost early.
-Giants sit 18th in the comp for average inside 50s per game and have failed to win this count in any game this season. This has been made up by their high efficiency rate when entering the forward 50 (second best in comp). The Giants have copped a bit of flack for this stat and will be aware that they're not playing at the best. I expect them to completely dominate the midfield battle this week and attempt to get the ball inside their 50 a little quicker.
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gonna go an early goal scorer pick

sam day 2+ goals @7.50 on sportsbet

unreal value for a guy who spends most his time playing deep forward and has done it 3/7 games so far this year. if you looked at some of the other games and players who are paying less than him, you have guys like coniglio (2 goals, 1/7 2+) cripps (4 goals, 1/7) travis boak (4 goals, 0/7) at $7, jackson hately who hasnt even kicked a goal this year at $6.50, parish (4 goals, 1/6) at $5.50 and others. all midfielders that are priced lower than a key forward and there are others there if you look. ben king will probably be the focus of the dogs defence which should give day a more favourable match up. too good value not to have a go at i reckon
 
JuniorWatch said:
Some of us are banned from promotional markets like the 2 above, so in fairness to all i'll add in 'no promo markets' to the rules.
So squeaky1000 and Ohh Ok For the above markets i'll take you both for $1.90 lines unless you can find something better.
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That’s fair, think BetEasy and 365 usually set their price at $1.91 (every cent counts 😂). Interested to hear what other people’s experinces are for the $2 lines though. I’m completely promo restricted with Ladbrokes, but still get the $2 lines.
 
OhhDeledio said:
gonna go an early goal scorer pick

sam day 2+ goals @7.50 on sportsbet

unreal value for a guy who spends most his time playing deep forward and has done it 3/7 games so far this year. if you looked at some of the other games and players who are paying less than him, you have guys like coniglio (2 goals, 1/7 2+) cripps (4 goals, 1/7) travis boak (4 goals, 0/7) at $7, jackson hately who hasnt even kicked a goal this year at $6.50, parish (4 goals, 1/6) at $5.50 and others. all midfielders that are priced lower than a key forward and there are others there if you look. ben king will probably be the focus of the dogs defence which should give day a more favourable match up. too good value not to have a go at i reckon
Click to expand...
also currently his ags is @ 2.10 at sportsbet so i could have gone safer here but will see how we go 😎
 
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