AFL 'Bet of the Round' POTY

Should we allow members 1 pass per year?

  • YES

    Votes: 4 80.0%
  • NO

    Votes: 1 20.0%

  • Total voters
    5
  • Poll closed .

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JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,445
2,189
AFL Club
Essendon
Well what a ripsnorter of a final round. Lids and NP who've been bobbing heads all year both win their bets but Lids comes good with a Josh Caddy hail mary to take the top spot. Mookieb had a great line multi at the end to shoot from 7th to 3rd.
Was great to see people's specialities form as the year went on.
Lids nailing some big tigers bets. 9/11 bets were on the tigers.
NP as ever hot on the GS markets.
Langdon excellent on the TP lines hitting 7/8 when just going a single line.
Ohhok consistent all year picking the best from all over the market.
The group ROI is 19%, meaning that if you took all the bets on the board all year, you'd be doing very well for yourself.
So well done everyone and thanks for participating.
There's murmuring around the punting board water cooler that someone, possibly the Grot might be running a finals tipping comp.
If you want your individual spreadsheets, DM me.

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OhhDeledio

Club Legend
Jul 30, 2014
2,993
6,121
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Riewoldt 2+ @2.45 lads (only 1/8 this year)

Good record against the Lions with 16.8 from his last 5. The stats dont suggest it, and Dimma said this aswell but I thought he looked really good last week and was getting back to some of his best footy. Even though he only had 1 shot, it looked like he should have kicked 3 or 4 but was just unlucky on multiple occasions going inside 50 where he was missed or the ball was kicked somewhere else when it should have gone to him. Richmond will keep on improving in this area (much better last week) and as the year goes on we should see both Jack and Tom get some better looks at it, while also improving individually and as a forward pairing.

This should hopefully be a open fast game with plenty of opportunities to score. Gardiner will be the matchup for most of the night (Andrews on Lynch) but you'd think would move over to Dusty when he goes forward, which would leave Jack with there 3rd string defender at times (Jack Payne 1st gamer, 197cm 101kg).

Said after the game last week that Jack looked like hes not far off a bag, I reckon he gets closer to that this week.
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,767
4,696
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Bayley Fritsch 2+ $2.60 TAB

4/8 for the season. Has had at least 2 scores in 7/8 games, the only blemish coming last week when they were flat out horrible. He saw limited opportunities & Melbournes ball use was pathetic so I can definitely forgive him last week. Not much to be said for the Crows, I’ll try and be nice but they simply are not AFL standard. Melbourne will want to bounce back hard after that effort last week, Whether Gawn plays or not, Petracca & Oliver will shred them in the middle & hoping they deliver it better this week and Bayley can get on the end of a few. $2.60 is a great price. $2 on SB even seems generous. $1.70 on PB is about what I’m pricing this market at. I will be absolutely shocked if he doesn’t have at least 2 shots at goal.
 

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mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,948
1,319
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Think it's a terrible spot for Ade. 4 day break, absolute pounding last game and a massive 8 inclusions this week.

I'm on Melbourne on the line and 40+, but I think the value is Melb in the 4th quarter where Melb are the 2nd ranked team. Ade got spanked in the last quarter vs North and i'm hoping it happens again. I'm on Melb O17.5 points +13 margin +33 margin but i'll go conservative with Melbourne -4.5 4th quarter at TAB $1.95 for my 1 bet for the round.
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,767
4,696
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Riewoldt 2+ @2.45 lads (only 1/8 this year)

Good record against the Lions with 16.8 from his last 5. The stats dont suggest it, and Dimma said this aswell but I thought he looked really good last week and was getting back to some of his best footy. Even though he only had 1 shot, it looked like he should have kicked 3 or 4 but was just unlucky on multiple occasions going inside 50 where he was missed or the ball was kicked somewhere else when it should have gone to him. Richmond will keep on improving in this area (much better last week) and as the year goes on we should see both Jack and Tom get some better looks at it, while also improving individually and as a forward pairing.

This should hopefully be a open fast game with plenty of opportunities to score. Gardiner will be the matchup for most of the night (Andrews on Lynch) but you'd think would move over to Dusty when he goes forward, which would leave Jack with there 3rd string defender at times (Jack Payne 1st gamer, 197cm 101kg).

Said after the game last week that Jack looked like hes not far off a bag, I reckon he gets closer to that this week.
good shout. spot on
 

JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,445
2,189
AFL Club
Essendon
Sorry, this is a bit boring but as many seem to agree, the best value this round is in the Dees/Ade game.
I usually stay away from 4-leg multis due to the multiple points of failure with injuries but am going with:
Oliver/Petracca 20+, Fritsch AGS, Dees H2H: $2.52 Lads

Most of these reasons have been covered but a good clearance side vs. one of the worst ever seen takes care of a large part of the possession numbers. Oliver 8/8 on 20+ this season. Tracc 7/8 on 20+ this season. Fritsch is 14 from his last 16 games on AGS.
 
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Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
787
729
AFL Club
West Coast
Bayley Fritsch 2+ $2.60 TAB

4/8 for the season. Has had at least 2 scores in 7/8 games, the only blemish coming last week when they were flat out horrible. He saw limited opportunities & Melbournes ball use was pathetic so I can definitely forgive him last week. Not much to be said for the Crows, I’ll try and be nice but they simply are not AFL standard. Melbourne will want to bounce back hard after that effort last week, Whether Gawn plays or not, Petracca & Oliver will shred them in the middle & hoping they deliver it better this week and Bayley can get on the end of a few. $2.60 is a great price. $2 on SB even seems generous. $1.70 on PB is about what I’m pricing this market at. I will be absolutely shocked if he doesn’t have at least 2 shots at goal.
From the dead
 

Ohh Ok

All Australian
Jul 31, 2018
834
976
AFL Club
Adelaide
Geelong SU, Melbourne SU @ $2.07 (365)

Like backing superior teams coming off of a loss.

Bit of a let down spot for North after a big win. Geelong are 1-2 since starting hub life, and should be aided by the return of Narkle and Selwood. Rough loss to the eagles after leading most of the match, will be looking to bounce back. Much better side than North. Really important that they get the job done here and prove that they can handle the hub life which will be their reality for the foreseeable future.

Melbourne get two extra days break vs the crows which will be massively valuable. They’ll be looking to bounce back after a close loss vs Lions and a bit of a reality check vs Port. They’ll still fancy themselves as a final contender, so giving the crows a touch up is a great spot for them.
3-0 😬
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
2,751
3,905
AFL Club
Adelaide
Jones O20.5/Saints win = 2.63

Analysis: Im not tailworthy but Junior forced me into this comp 😂 and I have to put something on. Jones in the mids, hopefully an open game to get disposals and i tipped saints
 

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Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
787
729
AFL Club
West Coast
1st off the rank for round 11.
TAB
Dusty Martin anytime goal scorer into Collingwood to win. 2 bucks even.
Dusty will get his time forward, loves a snag and can see it being a quick game which should suit.
Happy to add the leg of pies to beat crows for a bit of GST as although pies depleted they are still in the hunt (and playing crows).
 

OhhDeledio

Club Legend
Jul 30, 2014
2,993
6,121
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Sticking with the tigs theme bur gone for a bit of a bigger play.
Jack Riewoldt 2+, Riewoldt ags first half, Jack Ross 15+ = 7.50 at sportsbet

Posted main thoughts on Jack Ross in the discussion thread. Inside midfielder and without Cotchin there he should have a bigger responsibility in the middle. 25 touches in the match up last year which was his 1st game.

The other Jack, Riewoldt was back into goal kicking form with 4.1 v Bris (could have been 5 if he didn't pass it off) after looking likely for a few weeks leading up to, but just not really getting the opportunities inside 50. Has good form in quarters 1 and 2 this year with 10/13 of his goals coming from inside the first half. Also has a crazy record against Port Adelaide, kicking 3+ goals in 14 out of the 16 times he's played them. They're a different Port so far this year but I still think they are a bit flat track. Will have the chances in front of goal but just needs to put them in.

Might be a little wet in Adelaide and if it is it wont worry him at all. Is one of the best wet weather key forwards in the game.
 
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JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,445
2,189
AFL Club
Essendon
Round 10
Bit late on the review sorry people. Gotta be quick these days.
8 wins, 6 losses for the group taking the ROI to down a notch to 29% for the year.
Ohh Ok, NonPhixion and langdon19 bulking up the numbers not having lost one yet.
The Brown/Gowers spuddery award almost went to clubhouse leader NonPhixion this week as Fritsch didn't go near it for 3 quarters. But then he decided to rub the crows noses in it with a few late ones. I was pretty happy about that because i've just started tailing all his B'sOTR now. He leads with 236%. Keeping an eye on langdon19's total's and Ohh Ok's straight up tips to follow this week. No pressure ;)
DM me if you want your individual spreadsheets at any point.

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langdon19

All Australian
Dec 2, 2008
896
599
perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Adl vs Pies U115.5 $1.91, 8-15mm originally forecast but now 6-15.
Hoping the weather stays on track for this bet. If not I can middle or cash out for a profit.
Crows games go over this and pies games under so its a 50:50 bet swung in my favour by the rain.
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,767
4,696
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Josh Battle AGS $2.10 TAB

kicked a goal in 4/6 games, 1 of those games he got injuried in the 1st quarter and didn’t come back on. Has now assumed the role of 3rd tall forward, which makes him a nightmare match-up because King & Membrey will always get the best defenders, leaving Battle often with a favourable match-up. Really rate him as a player tbh, great 1 on 1 & a beautiful kick of the footy, I’ve given him about a 65-70% probability of kicking a goal tonight, so happy to take the given odds any day.
 

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