AFL 'Bet of the Round' POTY

[GROTTO]

iluvparis NonPhixion


~24 hours to go before you get your 3 bets in. If you dont, I am automatically awarding myself Punter of The Year title.

Im kinda hoping neither of you send me in your bets.




Just on that, if your bet is voided, there is no opportunity to resubmit another bet. Hence pick wisely and be aware of late players potentially being an out.

Its all about strategy and being the most cunning and astute of all punters in this Grand Final.


balmainforever Chism can you please make this thread a sticky if possible just till this time next week? Thanks. The winner deserves to be acknowledged widely on this forum, to achieve punter of the year in AFL is no easy feat esp with all the bs rules I have made ad hoc on the fly.

 

[squeaky1000]

That’s fair, think BetEasy and 365 usually set their price at $1.91 (every cent counts ). Interested to hear what other people’s experinces are for the $2 lines though. I’m completely promo restricted with Ladbrokes, but still get the $2 lines.

Yeah I'm promo banned from lads too but also still get the $2 lines. Bit weird but happy to take them haha

 

[iluvparis]

You were nominated in the op.

So I was

To be fair I go about as well on the AFL as Ebor form does in the Melbourne Cup

 

[JuniorWatch]

As I mentioned yesterday, I really like Luke Parker possessions this week so I'm going to take:
25+ $2.40 SB.
He's 4/7 in 2020.
With the Swan's injuries, last week he attended a game high 21 CBA's.
He increased his TOG from 83% to 89%.
And as most of us have noticed, the hawks concede the most possessions to opposition mids in the league.

 

[NonPhixion]

Slept on it, but I’m going with Alex Sexton 2+ $5 - SB

Don’t rate the backline of the Dogs at all, it drove me nuts when the media started pumping it up a few weeks ago. Only impressive win this year against GWS which they always fire against. Wins against Sydney, North & a depleted Essendon side. Got smoked by Carlton 2 weeks ago who put 16 goals on the board, I’ll eat my words if they shutdown GC tonight but I don’t see it.

Statistically speaking, they have given up 76 marks inside 50, second most in the AFL, only better than the Crows, suggesting that opposition forwards are too easily finding space, something that is definitely a strength of Sexton.

Now looking at Sexton, he has had a slow start to the year after a really good goal-kicking year, but he is far too good of a player to be kept down & I believe we won’t be getting these odds for him much longer. He has had at least 2 scores In 5/6 games. The beauty about him is he loves having a ping at the sticks, as greedy as they come this bloke but that is exactly what you want when betting on GS markets.
Let’s get this show on the road.

 

[GROTTO]

Carlton -10.5 $1.90 SB

North's average losing margin over the past 5 weeks has been 4+ goals with them heavily hit by injuries and Carlton a settled team going down after the siren to the league leaders, I expect them to cover this comfortably.

 

[burge13]

Port/Saints Under 130.5 @ 1.91 (365)
Port will win the midfield and stop Saints forwards which will keep the score down

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Sorry to be boring and go with what has already been posted but I want to get off to a winning start.

Carlton -15.5 currently @ 2.42 on betfair and 2.10 on SB.

If North get within five goals it will be a surprise.

We are absolute trash at the moment. I honestly believe the tank is on.

I'm personally planning to load up on Carlton at big margins.

For the purpose of this comp, I'm on Carlton -15.5 @ 2.42 (if we're allowed to use BF, if not, 2.10 on SB).

 

[iluvparis]

Lets get this out of the way quickly

Gold Coast SU @ 2.30 (beteasy)

 

[Sausage Legs]

Lets get this out of the way quickly

Gold Coast SU @ 2.30 (beteasy)

No winner of the toss markets?

 

[JuniorWatch]

Sorry to be boring and go with what has already been posted but I want to get off to a winning start.

Carlton -15.5 currently @ 2.42 on betfair and 2.10 on SB.

If North get within five goals it will be a surprise.

We are absolute trash at the moment. I honestly believe the tank is on.

I'm personally planning to load up on Carlton at big margins.

For the purpose of this comp, I'm on Carlton -15.5 @ 2.42 (if we're allowed to use BF, if not, 2.10 on SB).

We might steer clear of BetFair again for simpicity's sake as the listed prices aren't taking into account the % cut of winnings they're gonna take.

 

[Fabab]

Slept on it, but I’m going with Alex Sexton 2+ $5 - SB

Don’t rate the backline of the Dogs at all, it drove me nuts when the media started pumping it up a few weeks ago. Only impressive win this year against GWS which they always fire against. Wins against Sydney, North & a depleted Essendon side. Got smoked by Carlton 2 weeks ago who put 16 goals on the board, I’ll eat my words if they shutdown GC tonight but I don’t see it.

Statistically speaking, they have given up 76 marks inside 50, second most in the AFL, only better than the Crows, suggesting that opposition forwards are too easily finding space, something that is definitely a strength of Sexton.

Now looking at Sexton, he has had a slow start to the year after a really good goal-kicking year, but he is far too good of a player to be kept down & I believe we won’t be getting these odds for him much longer. He has had at least 2 scores In 5/6 games. The beauty about him is he loves having a ping at the sticks, as greedy as they come this bloke but that is exactly what you want when betting on GS markets.
Let’s get this show on the road.

Cheers bet is up in first quarter.

 

[Hellboy101]

GWS over 9.5 goals - 2.20 Lads.
Think GWS win well and in good conditions I think they can kick 10.

 

[54Dogs]

Slept on it, but I’m going with Alex Sexton 2+ $5 - SB

Don’t rate the backline of the Dogs at all, it drove me nuts when the media started pumping it up a few weeks ago. Only impressive win this year against GWS which they always fire against. Wins against Sydney, North & a depleted Essendon side. Got smoked by Carlton 2 weeks ago who put 16 goals on the board, I’ll eat my words if they shutdown GC tonight but I don’t see it.

Statistically speaking, they have given up 76 marks inside 50, second most in the AFL, only better than the Crows, suggesting that opposition forwards are too easily finding space, something that is definitely a strength of Sexton.

Now looking at Sexton, he has had a slow start to the year after a really good goal-kicking year, but he is far too good of a player to be kept down & I believe we won’t be getting these odds for him much longer. He has had at least 2 scores In 5/6 games. The beauty about him is he loves having a ping at the sticks, as greedy as they come this bloke but that is exactly what you want when betting on GS markets.
Let’s get this show on the road.

Nailed it, well done great start.

A bit of a shame you need to include rationale, which makes this one sort of embarrassing.

 

[NonPhixion]

Nailed it, well done great start.

A bit of a shame you need to include rationale, which makes this one sort of embarrassing.

Still don’t rate the Bulldogs backline, GC only kicked 6 goals from 47 i50’s but a lot of their entries were just terrible kicks rather than the Dogs defending well. Add in the fact that it rained for 90% of the game and you get the subsequent result

 

[54Dogs]

Still don’t rate the Bulldogs backline, GC only kicked 6 goals from 47 i50’s but a lot of their entries were just terrible kicks rather than the Dogs defending well. Add in the fact that it rained for 90% of the game and you get the subsequent result

That's fair, each to their own.

Given in 5 of the last 6 weeks the Dogs have conceded 7 or less goals or less they've been lucky a fair bit I guess.

 

[burge13]

It's amazing how footy nuffies take things said about their teams personally on a betting forum. Leave allegiances at the door...

 

[54Dogs]

It's amazing how footy nuffies take things said about their teams personally on a betting forum. Leave allegiances at the door...

lol

Before reporting you I'll assume this is aimed at me and might get you to check my last 3,000 posts on the punting board looking for anything related to my team and bias. I'm happy to check all 10 of yours.

If you can't understand that any team who has had 7 goals or less kicked against them in 5 of the last 6 weeks is a relevant discussion point for a betting forum then we should definitely discuss the definition of footy nuffie more broadly.

 

[langdon19]

I want to keep the thread clean and easy to read. We can keep the chat to the weekly AFL Round post.

 

[54Dogs]

It's one of those tough situations in life Langdon, sometimes we don't always get what we want. I want to hit 4 quaddies tomorrow.

The thing is, threads should be inclusive not selective, it's the nature of a public forum. Unless there are specific permissions involved like the ex-mods thread or premium members thread etc. They should also try and generate discussion without duplication or crossover to another thread.

 

[iluvparis]

Lets get this out of the way quickly

Gold Coast SU @ 2.30 (beteasy)

Was too greedy. Should have taken the line which covered easily

 

[54Dogs]

Was too greedy. Should have taken the line which covered easily

Was a good bet, GC were the better team IMO and unlucky to lose. Their pressure as the Dogs tried to move the ball was excellent. Could have gone either way.

 

[mookieb]

Don’t rate the backline of the Dogs at all, it drove me nuts when the media started pumping it up a few weeks ago. Only impressive win this year against GWS which they always fire against. Wins against Sydney, North & a depleted Essendon side. Got smoked by Carlton 2 weeks ago who put 16 goals on the board, I’ll eat my words if they shutdown GC tonight but I don’t see it.

Statistically speaking, they have given up 76 marks inside 50, second most in the AFL, only better than the Crows, suggesting that opposition forwards are too easily finding space, something that is definitely a strength of Sexton.

Nailed it, well done great start.

A bit of a shame you need to include rationale, which makes this one sort of embarrassing.

Why not address the statistical rationale on marks I50 rather than being dismissive of the post in it's entirety?

Personally I think you're right though since round two teams have scored very lowly against WB with the exception of the Carlton game where they took the week off. Wood back, Keath better integrated, good users out of the backline etc.

 

[iluvparis]

Was a good bet, GC were the better team IMO and unlucky to lose. Their pressure as the Dogs tried to move the ball was excellent. Could have gone either way.

I’ve already marked myself as the moral leader

 

[JuniorWatch]

It's one of those tough situations in life Langdon, sometimes we don't always get what we want. I want to hit 4 quaddies tomorrow.

The thing is, threads should be inclusive not selective, it's the nature of a public forum. Unless there are specific permissions involved like the ex-mods thread or premium members thread etc. They should also try and generate discussion without duplication or crossover to another thread.

There are a lot of competition threads on BF which either have limited members or do not encourage discussion.
Here's an example from the bombers board:

Competitions - 2020 Closest to the Pin - Sporno 4 Pyros wins!

www.bigfooty.com

If you could refrain from using this one for discussion it would be appreciated.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Only karaoke and mookieb to come.
No rush, you've got all weekend to post.