AFL 'Bet of the Round' POTY

[GROTTO]

iluvparis NonPhixion


~24 hours to go before you get your 3 bets in. If you dont, I am automatically awarding myself Punter of The Year title.

Im kinda hoping neither of you send me in your bets.




Just on that, if your bet is voided, there is no opportunity to resubmit another bet. Hence pick wisely and be aware of late players potentially being an out.

Its all about strategy and being the most cunning and astute of all punters in this Grand Final.


balmainforever Chism can you please make this thread a sticky if possible just till this time next week? Thanks. The winner deserves to be acknowledged widely on this forum, to achieve punter of the year in AFL is no easy feat esp with all the bs rules I have made ad hoc on the fly.

 

[iluvparis]

Fremantle SU @ $2.05 (TS)

Blues faves in Perth - are you having a laugh?

 

[Ohh Ok]

GWS/Brisbane/Bulldogs/West Coast @ $2.01 (Topsport) - can boost to $2.06 on lads.

Hate to do it, as long terms these aren’t profitable, but this one is lockable. Will add a write up later on.

Well there ya have it...
Also forgot the number one rule in punting... never declare anything a lock/moral, it’s a sure fire way to ensure a loss

 

[JuniorWatch]

Gonna try and up the ante here a little bit to catch Phix and Lids.
Stewart o17.5, Guthrie u21.5: $3.60 SB

Port are an excellent contested side who should also dominate the ruck. I think this should result in less opportunities for Geelong's mids and more for their defenders. I think they'll play an especially slow style after their busy schedule. Guthrie also looked tired last week with less CBAs after being relied upon a lot in the last month.

 

[burge13]

Port 1.85 @ SB

I think Lycett should beat Stanley, I still dont rate Geelongs forward line all that much, Port are top for a reason and with the odds on Port drifting im happy tobe contrarian to the public who are always wrong (ironically, watch me be wrong on that )

 

[NonPhixion]

ill take a little risk this week.
Ah Chee AGS, Zorko AGS & Cameron AGS $5.82 - Lads

I really think Brisbane can put up a big score tomorrow. Ah Chee should play forward again and was pretty dangerous last week kicking 2. Zorko has kicked a score in 8/9 games, getting injured early in 1, he will get a look and loves a goal. Cameron i think can kick a bag tomorrow, obviously not much value, but it rounds out a 3 legger for a promo if you wish to go there. ive boosted this one so no promo.
Also i realise its going to piss down, so ive taken 3 small forwards, either way they should destroy the roos tomorrow.

 

[karaoke]

Neale 25+/Lyons 20+/Anderson 15+/Witherden 15+ - 2.40 sb


Neale 10/11
Lyons 9/11
Anderson 7/9
Witherden 3/4

 

[karaoke]

Neale 25+/Lyons 20+/Anderson 15+/Witherden 15+ - 2.40 sb


Neale 10/11
Lyons 9/11
Anderson 7/9
Witherden 3/4

Neale gets 24,

 

[mookieb]

I'm going to roll with StK -13.5 $1.87 at Betdeluxe. I'm very confident that Ess will be flat after giving up a big lead to lose to GWS then the dramatic draw with GC. They have a bunch of injuries and cop a 4 day break. Also like 40+ and 4th qtr lines and margin given Ess are a poor 4th qtr team.

 

[JuniorWatch]

mouncey2franklin OhhDeledio to finish us off
If you don't post, I'll take that as a pass

 

[GROTTO]

Saints -13.5 @$1.90 SB

Its not so much the short turnaround (though a factor as well) but the Dons injury list to key players. As the game progresses, I see the Saints covering here.

 

[NonPhixion]

ill take a little risk this week.
Ah Chee AGS, Zorko AGS & Cameron AGS $5.82 - Lads

I really think Brisbane can put up a big score tomorrow. Ah Chee should play forward again and was pretty dangerous last week kicking 2. Zorko has kicked a score in 8/9 games, getting injured early in 1, he will get a look and loves a goal. Cameron i think can kick a bag tomorrow, obviously not much value, but it rounds out a 3 legger for a promo if you wish to go there. ive boosted this one so no promo.
Also i realise its going to piss down, so ive taken 3 small forwards, either way they should destroy the roos tomorrow.

Contender for the Mason bag of potatoes Wood worst bet of the year.

 

[OhhDeledio]

Lynch 2+, Riewoldt 2+, Cotchin 15+ = $4.00 sb

Both Jack and Tom will be far too strong for the young GC defence. Think one of them will go 4+ but playing it safe going with the 2 each. Cotchin in there making it eligible for the bonus bet promo. Should be safe for 15 at least, averages more touches against the Suns than he does any other team and is coming off a 13 day break. Should get up easy this.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Weller AGS into total points under 131.5 @ $4 with SB.

Weller is 7/10 since the restart, kicked one goal in both previous matches against Richmond.

I have a bad feeling it will be a boring snoozefest, maybe even a sub four-goal first quarter. Can see 110-120 total points.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Great stuff at the end from Tigers tipper Lids who moves into #1. Well done TP line magnate Langdon (5-0!) and our 2 Saints tipsters, but the rest of us...


Never seen such a nightmare. There are so many nominees for the 'Gowers-Gardner Steaming Pile Award' that i don't know where to start. H2H bets that lost by 10 goals, 3-leg multi's with $1.10 legs that went 0-3, moral H2H multi's which didn't get anywhere near clearing the first leg. I'm disappointed in the lot of you. Without even mentioning my disposal bet that had a leg that lost by 6 touches (or my Fiorini tip off ). Anyway here's the bloody table. No Paris, I didn't figure out the sort function.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Been a lot of footy and a lot of punting in the last 3 weeks and I need a little break.
So this upcoming week is a PASS from me.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Been a lot of footy and a lot of punting in the last 3 weeks and I need a little break.
So this upcoming week is a PASS from me.

I lasted about 48 hours. Hope you can avoid the punt for longer than me

 

[burge13]

When do I get kicked out of this for disastrous results

 

[iluvparis]

No one will be raped more than me for the entirety of this comp. Take 2.05 Freo who start $1.60 and lose thanks to something that should be investigated by a royal commission.

 

[Sausage Legs]

No one will be raped more than me for the entirety of this comp. Take 2.05 Freo who start $1.60 and lose thanks to something that should be investigated by a royal commission.

Pointsbet half time lead get paid out as a winner tho yeah. Wink emoji.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Locking in Cats 25+ into Miers to snag a goal. 1.88. Sportsbet.
Cats last 2 games have thumped serious teams Port and Saints by 10 goal each. Wouldn't be shocked if they rested a few players but it doesn't matter. Their backline is solid af and I can see crows battling to score. Miers will get his chances so chucking him in as a kicker.

 

[GROTTO]

Port Adelaide -26.5 v Hawks. 1.90 SB

Port the quintessential flat track bully especially at AO. With JAG out and Sicily too, I dont expect Port to have any difficulties covering this.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Carlton -2.5 4th qtr line @ $1.90 (TAB)

-Carlton second ranked 4th quarter side vs Gold Coast, 17th ranked 4th quarter side.
-Teams off a 3-4 day break vs "fresher" teams (those with at minimum an extra day rest) are yet to win a final quarter (7 losses, 1 tie).
-Gold Coast yet to have their bye, so legs are presumably a bit more tired.
-Carlton strengthened by the return of Cunningham, Martin, Pittonet, and potentially Kennedy.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Port Adelaide -26.5 v Hawks.

Port the quintessential flat track bully especially at AO. With JAG out and Sicily too, I dont expect Port to have any difficulties covering this.

Price, book

 

[GROTTO]

Price, book

Apologies that was the line price with all books at 1.90 earlier in the week.

 

[iluvparis]

Dogs SU @ 2.16

Melbourne have been the biggest hypelords in world sport for some time and fading them on a regular basis is immensely profitable.