catempire
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Cash out got to $400 but ended up taking $52. Hard way to back a $2 winner!
Banter AFL Betting Season 2019
- Thread starter CatRiot
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- Thread starter
- #155
Some light reading for those interested....
I backed Fyfe, his numbers are similar to his brownlow year and he doesn't have other mids to take votes off him. His problem is getting enough votes in losses. Freo did lose a few games by small margins so I'm hoping he gets a few votes in those.
Danger is a bit too short, his numbers aren't as good as his 2 best years. He hasn't had that great of a season and has Kelly to take votes off him. When it comes to the predictor Danger has many 3 votes so has more downside risk (umpires giving him less votes than expected)
Dont think Neale is flashy enough and isn't a proven high vote getter.
The Bont has similar numbers to their premiership year where he polled only 20.
Cripps not enough wins.
Danger is a bit too short, his numbers aren't as good as his 2 best years. He hasn't had that great of a season and has Kelly to take votes off him. When it comes to the predictor Danger has many 3 votes so has more downside risk (umpires giving him less votes than expected)
Dont think Neale is flashy enough and isn't a proven high vote getter.
The Bont has similar numbers to their premiership year where he polled only 20.
Cripps not enough wins.
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- #158
Outside of those, I am curious to see how Grundy polls. Averaging 21 touches, 4.4 marks, 4 tackles, 41 HOs, can't think of a Ruck that's done so much in a season probably since Jim Stynes, when he averaged 25 touches per game.
I think the Bont has a lot of competition with Dunkley and Macrae, all taking a lot of possessions. If the Bont had kicked straight, like +30 goals for the season, then I'd think he would be in with a massive shot. Probably will be in Top 3.
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- #160
Yep, I got on them at 40-1 just before Week 1 of finals. However, I started to cash-out for profit when they dropped to 3.5 and 5-1. Basically already locked profit, and the remainder of the potential payout is a free bet on them in the Grand Final.
- Thread starter
- #161
Anyone know of a Betting Agency/Broker website that enables Multibets across Brownlow betting for "Most Bronlow votes for the team"?
Eg. I back in a multibet for most Brownlow votes per team with the following legs:
-> Henderson for Hawks + (6-1)
-> Macrae for Bulldogs + (5-1)
-> Gresham for Saints (23-1)
Total odds -> 6x5x23 -> 690-1
Just an example...
Eg. I back in a multibet for most Brownlow votes per team with the following legs:
-> Henderson for Hawks + (6-1)
-> Macrae for Bulldogs + (5-1)
-> Gresham for Saints (23-1)
Total odds -> 6x5x23 -> 690-1
Just an example...
Can usually multi them on the day of the Brownlow.
Any tips for the Everest tomorrow?
- May 20, 2014
- 20,965
- 26,706
- AFL Club
- Geelong
Jenkins in the first in Melbourne on a purely omen basis.
Get your dart board out for the Caulfield Cup and the Everest.
Get your dart board out for the Caulfield Cup and the Everest.
Ouch
Spooked by the light.
- Thread starter
- #171
Okay, I've watched enough of horse racing this season to give some good honest advice.
Don't gamble.
But, if you're that way inclined, I have something for you at nice odds.
1. Derby Day -> Long Jack @ 13-1 Win, maybe you can find higher odds.
2. Oaks Day -> Vegas Jewel @ 4.4-1 Win, maybe you can find higher odds.
Combine those in a multibet, and you should get near 60-1.
The other option is, more conservative:
1. Derby Day -> Long Jack @ 4.4-1 Place, shop for best odds.
2. Oaks Day -> Vegas Jewel @ 1.9-1 Place, shop for best odds.
Combine those in a multibet, and you should be near 8.4-1.
Or if you fancy one and not the other so much, do a combination of Win and Place.
I think that's solid and informed betting on good chances.
If you want to take more risk, do Long Jack Win into Gamay Win -> you might get 90 or 100-1. But this is less a chance, but worth a small punt.
Don't gamble.
But, if you're that way inclined, I have something for you at nice odds.
1. Derby Day -> Long Jack @ 13-1 Win, maybe you can find higher odds.
2. Oaks Day -> Vegas Jewel @ 4.4-1 Win, maybe you can find higher odds.
Combine those in a multibet, and you should get near 60-1.
The other option is, more conservative:
1. Derby Day -> Long Jack @ 4.4-1 Place, shop for best odds.
2. Oaks Day -> Vegas Jewel @ 1.9-1 Place, shop for best odds.
Combine those in a multibet, and you should be near 8.4-1.
Or if you fancy one and not the other so much, do a combination of Win and Place.
I think that's solid and informed betting on good chances.
If you want to take more risk, do Long Jack Win into Gamay Win -> you might get 90 or 100-1. But this is less a chance, but worth a small punt.
- Thread starter
- #172
I've hit Long Jack for the win at 26-1 on Betfair.
However, I think "Thought of That" is the one to beat, and will probably win.
Might do the pair in a Quinella, and some Trifecta combinations.
Will shop around for best odds on "Thought of That".
- Oct 31, 2013
- 3,007
- 4,207
- AFL Club
- Geelong
- Other Teams
- LEEDS
Long Jack drew a s**t gate, otherwise I would of jumped on it too.
- Thread starter
- #174
Yeah, I know. Although it is a 2500m race, and he tends to sit midfield or swoop from back 1/4 of field. Not ideal, but still in the hunt. I think maybe Place bet might be okay if can get above +6 to 1.
Shadow Hero and Thought Of that are the main threats.
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