Game Day AFL Draft Day Discussion - Pick 1 - 70

[year of the cat]

I don't agree with Knightmares ratings i was just pointing out we didnt take a small defender and i would rather we had done so.

Which one out of interest?

 

[Max Milburn]

I can't imagine why anybody thinks we can pick up gold from where we select.

Because we have done it before?
Because other clubs have done it before?

 

[BORIS332]

Here's my overall assessment of our 19' draft batch.

Firstly, I'm annoyed we have attempted to rejuvenate our list by adding 6 players from picks after 48. It's just not going to produce the results we need. I can see it if we had say, 4 or 5 picks under 35 with some at the high end, but this was poor on our behalf. It's like Wells expected to fall into some top picks (and expected to get some for TK which didn't eventuate). So whilst we may have added a player or two with late picks (Wells' does have a decent record here), it is more likely that 3 -5 won't make it and it won't improve us. Rant over and now on to the picks.

15 Clark: Whilst I wanted us to use such a good pick on best available mid, I can see why we jumped at clark when Caldwell, Smith Rankine Walsh etc were all gone. IMO Clark was the best player remaining and we had to take him and I commend wells for not reaching and just going best available. I think Clark has a bit of Scarlo in his personality which is perfect for a defender. I don't buy that he could be a mid, he's too outside and is a natural defender so just leave him there to flourish. We need a smart gun rebounding back in the Andrew McGrath/ Laird role with good decision making and footskills I.e. we lack and desperately need an attacking defender to help our poor transition. I think Clark will more or less be the first picked each week when he's 22 and older and will give us an outstanding career as a gun half back flanker. I can see him taking over from Bews by 2020. Every team needs this sort of player and we cannot complain about that.

48 Jarvis: Must admit i'm scratching my head at why he was even drafted, based on his highlights and public info. Whilst he tested well, he doesn't seem to use his athleticism when he plays. Instead, he looks slow, lethargic and hesitant with a drawn out kicking style. Play This does not translate into AFL. He seems a good mark but if we are trying to replace menzel, I just don't see any x factor to create something from nothing. More a shane Kersten without the big kick. Meh. I think we need a 3rd tall T Lynch (from crows) type to go with the Sav + Kreuger combo (who I think will work perfectly together post Hawkins), but I don't see it in Jarvis. Unfortunately, I see this as a bust to me, which is the more likely outcome from a pick 48.

50 Kennerley: Unlike Jarvis, I can see why Wells went after this guy. We lack outside runners (Duncan, Cunico the only ones with Narkle also having the ability to be outside) that use their athleticism to run and carry. We need run and carry players especially when TK leaves so I see a spot for him and I see him competing with Cunico. Who would we rather play in the future, Kennerley or Cuncio? To me, there is still an element of 'bust' here but I think there is an opportunity for Kennerley if he takes it by the balls and improves his tackling and defensive mindset. He needs to be a 2 way damaging runner. I think he is a good link up player that can kick goals from 60 which is a huge strong point, but he will need to add the 2 way running to become the "tom Scully" of Geelong. I don't rate Cunico extremely highly so I'd back Kennerley in but if he doesn't improve his contested tackling game & 2 way running, he will turn out to be a Mackay from Adelaide, which isn't going to make it. Still, at pick 50, you can't expect much more from Wells here.

65 Fort: Is the best ruckman outside the AFL so this is a depth pick and it probably means Smith is gone if he doesn't play well this year. He's not a big bodied strong ruck like Mumford, looks like a Zac Smith II. Agile and relies on good tap work. Still, we never seem to get a good season out of any of our rucks so how much worse can he be? However, I don't like drafting for depth. I prefer drafting to get a player that will play in the 22 to cause competition for spots to drive the competitive nature within the team. I don't think there's much difference between Stanley/Smith/Abbott or Fort so it'll be interesting to see how we go. with the 6-6-6 tap ruckman might be back so this may suit Fort but he will need to improve his aggression and work around the ground to take Stanley's spot. A bit of a meh selection but again, that's what picks int he 60s are about.. it's just that we shouldn't be having so many 60s picks if we realistically expect to find players.

68 Tarca: Is this another Stokes or another Hayball? Tarca wasn't on anybody's draft boards, why was that? That was the first question that came to mind but after reading up about him and watching the footage I'm impressed and not sure why he wasn't 'rated' by the 'experts' in the media and draft boards. For too long we've ruined our forward line by playing mids as forwards (Parfitt, Fog, Narkle, Kelly are not forwards, neither was Gregson) so it's about time we drafted an actual forward. It seems our drafting philosophy did change this off season in that we looked at a pressure small forward (with Atkins) over athletic rangy flanker. Despite being pick 68, I rate this pick the most, I think his skills will translate to AFL as he looks strong, tackles to hurt, good overhead and knows where the goals are with both feet. A better prospect than miers due to his power and willingness to apply pressure, as well as his speed. I think Tarca will be the surprise of the lot and be our resident small forward in the future in the McGlynn / Butler mould.

74 Brownless: I think Oscar has some skills that translate to AFL. He is evasive and works through stoppage situations well. You can see he is thinking of what to do all the time and doesn't just instinctively kick it. This is critical. He is a good size but extremely slow... He doesn't have a best position so I'm not sure he will make it. IMO he could either surprise and be a great pickup or become the next GHS that is too good for VFL but not good enough for AFL. We will see. pick 74 has almost zero chance to make it so anything is a bonus.

Rookie Atkins: I just automatically think David Johnson, but forward pocket. I think he will surprise with 80 - 120 games as that tackling pressure forward that sacrifices himself for the greater forward line. Might kick a goal or 2 a game, 7 tackles and 10 possies that creates opportunities for other more talented players. He's got good character and a leader. We need leaders in the forward part of the ground and I think he'd make our forward line structurally function much better playing next year alongside Dahl and Rohan. He's not a gun, just a David Johnson who will try hard and make us better. Can't ask for more than that with a rookie. We've clearly changed our tune away from talented x factor towards pressure quick forwards. We just need to make sure we still kick goals...

Overall I think Clark, Starca will make it and we will get a solid contributions from Fort & Atkins. I'm 50/50 on Kennerley. I also think Kreuger will be a gun pick up as a roaming quick CHF with x factor that partners Sav perfectly.

REMAINING HOLES ON THE LIST

The most important area of need for us next draft is A grade mids to take over from Sel & Danger. We only have Parfitt as a young gun mid and I think he needs to be the 3rd mid in line if we are going to rebuild our list. We need to get top picks to get the next Sel and should focus on that instead of multiple picks post 50.

This is a pretty big write up and some pretty large inferences made from someone that admits to not having seen any of these blokes play.

Edit - I also found it amusing that you said Kennerley needs to improve his tackling/pressure game whereas that's a strength of Tarca's, when Kennerley (5 tackles) averaged double the tackles that Tarca did (2.5).

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Thought it was interesting that Knightmare rated our selections a C+ and in the Questionable range.

However, we selected Clark at 15, Jarvis at 48 and Kennerly at 50, yet he rated them at 8, 39, and 33. So how does that make it a C+?!? Lol

Questionable
Geelong

With Geelong's in "win now" mode, their selections did little to move the needle. Geelong have likely found a long term half-back flanker in Jordan Clark, while adding father-son midfielder Oscar Brownless (son of Billy) with the club's last selection is a win.

Geelong products Darcy Fort and Tom Atkins(a mature age ruckman and midfielder, respectively) likely only add depth. Outside runner Jacob Kennerley was taken later than predicted while forwards Ben Jarvis and Jake Tarca were picked as medium and small goalkickers to replace what the club has lost in recent seasons. Next-generation academy forward Blake Schlensog joins Geelong as a Category B rookie.

Grade: C+

Without sounding harsh KM is just a couch potato like the rest of us. Unless he's based in SA and watches the SA kids live weekly he has just as much idea as the rest of us.

How you can rate 3 kids higher than the draft position they were drafted at and then rate the draft a C+ is strange.

 

[strauchnyy]

This is a pretty big write up and some pretty large inferences made from someone that admits to not having seen any of these blokes play.

Edit - I also found it amusing that you said Kennerley needs to improve his tackling/pressure game whereas that's a strength of Tarca's, when Kennerley (5 tackles) averaged double the tackles that Tarca did (2.5).

Have a read about what they’re good at. Draft central agrees with me. Stats aren’t everything. Perhaps Kennerley gets more tackles due to being around the ball perhaps.

After all I said it was only my assessment. My assessment on a footy forum.

I find it amusing that after everything I wrote you chose to pick a couple things to criticise.

How about you give some opinions instead of trying to shoot somebody down on a footy forum for giving their opinion. Least I provide something.

Let’s see how they go

 

[Hamingja]

He intimated that we should have taken Cavarra. Cavarra was taken at 45 which meant that unless we took him with our first it couldn't happen. If Wells had called Cavarra at 12 we would have been a laughing stock.

Cavarra was the exact player we didn't want!!!

 

[Vdubs]

Cavarra was the exact player we didn't want!!!

Disagree completely

 

[Vdubs]

Because we have done it before?
Because other clubs have done it before?

Apart from that??!

 

[Hamingja]

Disagree completely

We are fully stocked with midget midfielders

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Stack is Richmond bound.

 

[Turbocat]

I questioned the same. Ridiculous response to it I received that just didn't make sense. I love his dedication to providing information on these draftees each year but I think his rationalisation of ratings lacks rationality sometimes!

To be fair .... every club thinks they drafted a tatts lotto win ... we made out like bandits ... and those in the game are expected to rate a draft outcome 5 minutes after its done... when we all know ..it will probably take years to know how we and all have gone. Id probably say its fair to look back know at Parfits draft now and see if we drafted the right players.. which was probably not looking that good just after the draft that year.

 

[Turbocat]

Here's my overall assessment of our 19' draft batch.

Firstly, I'm annoyed we have attempted to rejuvenate our list by adding 6 players from picks after 48. It's just not going to produce the results we need. I can see it if we had say, 4 or 5 picks under 35 with some at the high end, but this was poor on our behalf. It's like Wells expected to fall into some top picks (and expected to get some for TK which didn't eventuate). So whilst we may have added a player or two with late picks (Wells' does have a decent record here), it is more likely that 3 -5 won't make it and it won't improve us. Rant over and now on to the picks.

15 Clark: Whilst I wanted us to use such a good pick on best available mid, I can see why we jumped at clark when Caldwell, Smith Rankine Walsh etc were all gone. IMO Clark was the best player remaining and we had to take him and I commend wells for not reaching and just going best available. I think Clark has a bit of Scarlo in his personality which is perfect for a defender. I don't buy that he could be a mid, he's too outside and is a natural defender so just leave him there to flourish. We need a smart gun rebounding back in the Andrew McGrath/ Laird role with good decision making and footskills I.e. we lack and desperately need an attacking defender to help our poor transition. I think Clark will more or less be the first picked each week when he's 22 and older and will give us an outstanding career as a gun half back flanker. I can see him taking over from Bews by 2020. Every team needs this sort of player and we cannot complain about that.

48 Jarvis: Must admit i'm scratching my head at why he was even drafted, based on his highlights and public info. Whilst he tested well, he doesn't seem to use his athleticism when he plays. Instead, he looks slow, lethargic and hesitant with a drawn out kicking style. Play This does not translate into AFL. He seems a good mark but if we are trying to replace menzel, I just don't see any x factor to create something from nothing. More a shane Kersten without the big kick. Meh. I think we need a 3rd tall T Lynch (from crows) type to go with the Sav + Kreuger combo (who I think will work perfectly together post Hawkins), but I don't see it in Jarvis. Unfortunately, I see this as a bust to me, which is the more likely outcome from a pick 48.

50 Kennerley: Unlike Jarvis, I can see why Wells went after this guy. We lack outside runners (Duncan, Cunico the only ones with Narkle also having the ability to be outside) that use their athleticism to run and carry. We need run and carry players especially when TK leaves so I see a spot for him and I see him competing with Cunico. Who would we rather play in the future, Kennerley or Cuncio? To me, there is still an element of 'bust' here but I think there is an opportunity for Kennerley if he takes it by the balls and improves his tackling and defensive mindset. He needs to be a 2 way damaging runner. I think he is a good link up player that can kick goals from 60 which is a huge strong point, but he will need to add the 2 way running to become the "tom Scully" of Geelong. I don't rate Cunico extremely highly so I'd back Kennerley in but if he doesn't improve his contested tackling game & 2 way running, he will turn out to be a Mackay from Adelaide, which isn't going to make it. Still, at pick 50, you can't expect much more from Wells here.

65 Fort: Is the best ruckman outside the AFL so this is a depth pick and it probably means Smith is gone if he doesn't play well this year. He's not a big bodied strong ruck like Mumford, looks like a Zac Smith II. Agile and relies on good tap work. Still, we never seem to get a good season out of any of our rucks so how much worse can he be? However, I don't like drafting for depth. I prefer drafting to get a player that will play in the 22 to cause competition for spots to drive the competitive nature within the team. I don't think there's much difference between Stanley/Smith/Abbott or Fort so it'll be interesting to see how we go. with the 6-6-6 tap ruckman might be back so this may suit Fort but he will need to improve his aggression and work around the ground to take Stanley's spot. A bit of a meh selection but again, that's what picks int he 60s are about.. it's just that we shouldn't be having so many 60s picks if we realistically expect to find players.

68 Tarca: Is this another Stokes or another Hayball? Tarca wasn't on anybody's draft boards, why was that? That was the first question that came to mind but after reading up about him and watching the footage I'm impressed and not sure why he wasn't 'rated' by the 'experts' in the media and draft boards. For too long we've ruined our forward line by playing mids as forwards (Parfitt, Fog, Narkle, Kelly are not forwards, neither was Gregson) so it's about time we drafted an actual forward. It seems our drafting philosophy did change this off season in that we looked at a pressure small forward (with Atkins) over athletic rangy flanker. Despite being pick 68, I rate this pick the most, I think his skills will translate to AFL as he looks strong, tackles to hurt, good overhead and knows where the goals are with both feet. A better prospect than miers due to his power and willingness to apply pressure, as well as his speed. I think Tarca will be the surprise of the lot and be our resident small forward in the future in the McGlynn / Butler mould.

74 Brownless: I think Oscar has some skills that translate to AFL. He is evasive and works through stoppage situations well. You can see he is thinking of what to do all the time and doesn't just instinctively kick it. This is critical. He is a good size but extremely slow... He doesn't have a best position so I'm not sure he will make it. IMO he could either surprise and be a great pickup or become the next GHS that is too good for VFL but not good enough for AFL. We will see. pick 74 has almost zero chance to make it so anything is a bonus.

Rookie Atkins: I just automatically think David Johnson, but forward pocket. I think he will surprise with 80 - 120 games as that tackling pressure forward that sacrifices himself for the greater forward line. Might kick a goal or 2 a game, 7 tackles and 10 possies that creates opportunities for other more talented players. He's got good character and a leader. We need leaders in the forward part of the ground and I think he'd make our forward line structurally function much better playing next year alongside Dahl and Rohan. He's not a gun, just a David Johnson who will try hard and make us better. Can't ask for more than that with a rookie. We've clearly changed our tune away from talented x factor towards pressure quick forwards. We just need to make sure we still kick goals...

Overall I think Clark, Starca will make it and we will get a solid contributions from Fort & Atkins. I'm 50/50 on Kennerley. I also think Kreuger will be a gun pick up as a roaming quick CHF with x factor that partners Sav perfectly.

REMAINING HOLES ON THE LIST

The most important area of need for us next draft is A grade mids to take over from Sel & Danger. We only have Parfitt as a young gun mid and I think he needs to be the 3rd mid in line if we are going to rebuild our list. We need to get top picks to get the next Sel and should focus on that instead of multiple picks post 50.

Interesting perspective. Agree on Clark. Dont agree on Jarvis Dont agree on Fort. Agree on Tarca.

Overall I dont see any player being an iron clad certainty to be a win but most of not all have more than a chance to succeed. ..we will know more when they start playing

 

[year of the cat]

To be fair .... every club thinks they drafted a tatts lotto win ... we made out like bandits ... and those in the game are expected to rate a draft outcome 5 minutes after its done... when we all know ..it will probably take years to know how we and all have gone. Id probably say its fair to look back know at Parfits draft now and see if we drafted the right players.. which was probably not looking that good just after the draft that year.

It wasn’t though so much that he rated us poorly due to not rating the players we took but he thought we should have taken other types of players including mature aged types much higher. It didn’t make any sense and showed a lack of understanding as to where our list is at I thought.

 

[Vdubs]

We are fully stocked with midget midfielders

but can they play?
apart from Parfitt, they are all big?'s
Cavarra can get the hard ball and kick goals, and is very resilient.

 

[Turbocat]

It wasn’t though so much that he rated us poorly due to not rating the players we took but he thought we should have taken other types of players including mature aged types much higher. It didn’t make any sense and showed a lack of understanding as to where our list is at I thought.

In my discussions with KM pre draft ..he placed a higher value on us being in the now and recruiting for that.... to some degree I feel that the clubs sends mixed messages in what they want to try to do.. but perhaps the clubs has caught up with a general vibe on this board but many non geelong people are still a little bit behind that. If we take the field with a newer fresher less now team next year I suspect that will change.
The irony is the drafted players look closer to playing than id be concerned about..

 

[Vdubs]

In my discussions with KM pre draft ..he placed a higher value on us being in the now and recruiting for that.... to some degree I feel that the clubs sends mixed messages in what they want to try to do.. but perhaps the clubs has caught up with a general vibe on this board but many non geelong people are still a little bit behind that. If we take the field with a newer fresher less now team next year I suspect that will change.
The irony is the drafted players look closer to playing than id be concerned about..

All we can be fairly sure about is GAJ, Taylor, and Kelly playing no footy for us after 2019.
Selwood and Hawkins not far behind.
We should be on a next year for broke mission.
Danger is not getting any better.
I think we need that irony to be reality

 

[Daniel McL]

All we can be fairly sure about is GAJ, Taylor, and Kelly playing no footy for us after 2019.
Selwood and Hawkins not far behind.
We should be on a next year for broke mission.
Danger is not getting any better.
I think we need that irony to be reality

I’m not ready to see him retire

 

[Vdubs]

I’m not ready to see him retire

Same, but contract up IIRC.

 

[Daniel McL]

Same, but contract up IIRC.

Let’s delist then redraft him as a rookie and keep him on the list for another decade just so there’s still an Ablett on our list

 

[Turbocat]

All we can be fairly sure about is GAJ, Taylor, and Kelly playing no footy for us after 2019.
Selwood and Hawkins not far behind.
We should be on a next year for broke mission.
Danger is not getting any better.
I think we need that irony to be reality

going for broke is last year... that was failsave .. going for broke ..whats that mean anyway... to go till you break something?
The only hard part is we have 4-6 guys who are super premiums that have peaked and are on the way down..yet probably not in their heads. We haven't drafted for now ..not really..I think the club knows after the melb final that that the music has stopped and there are no more chairs

 

[Footy Smarts]

but can they play?
apart from Parfitt, they are all big?'s
Cavarra can get the hard ball and kick goals, and is very resilient.

This is a classic case of overrating a draft pick. Fogarty for example was drafted at 22 and played plenty of AFL in his first season showing some real ability. Yet you have big questions over his ability and have already put him behind a guy drafted in the 40s? You might be right on their relative quality but considering everyone rated Fogarty fairly highly last year (him lasting to our pick was a huge surprise) you're going against the views of basically the entire AFL scouting community.

 

[Max Milburn]

but can they play?
apart from Parfitt, they are all big?'s
Cavarra can get the hard ball and kick goals, and is very resilient.

You seem very sure of him, yet he hasn't played a game.
How can you be so sure he is better than our young mids?

 

[Cursed Cat]

going for broke is last year... that was failsave .. going for broke ..whats that mean anyway... to go till you break something?
The only hard part is we have 4-6 guys who are super premiums that have peaked and are on the way down..yet probably not in their heads. We haven't drafted for now ..not really..I think the club knows after the melb final that that the music has stopped and there are no more chairs

We had a horrible draft hand, so in essence we've delisted/traded a raft of injured/ineffective dead wood only to most likely have brought more in.

We're just not getting a look-in at the top young players, and as you say, the senior top end talent has well and truly peaked, save perhaps Stewart and Kelly.

I've read a couple of comments where you alluded to rebuilding the engine, Turbo - i.e. midfield, but we just haven't had the kind of hand conducive to addressing list deficiencies of that nature.

I don't know if adding one hopefully classy player per year is an effective way of building a list; we haven't had a range of picks between even say 10-20 in some time.
We're now seeing the back end of trading in blokes like Henderson, Tuohy, Dangerfield - Wells and co. reduced to flinging darts at an ever-receding board.

 

[Max Milburn]

We had a horrible draft hand, so in essence we've delisted/traded a raft of injured/ineffective dead wood only to most likely have brought more in.

We're just not getting a look-in at the top young players, and as you say, the senior top end talent has well and truly peaked, save perhaps Stewart and Kelly.

I've read a couple of comments where you alluded to rebuilding the engine, Turbo - i.e. midfield, but we just haven't had the kind of hand conducive to addressing list deficiencies of that nature.

I don't know if adding one hopefully classy player per year is an effective way of building a list; we haven't had a range of picks between even say 10-20 in some time.
We're now seeing the back end of trading in blokes like Henderson, Tuohy, Dangerfield - Wells and co. reduced to flinging darts at an ever-receding board.

Holy sh*t. Have you been listening to Leonard Cohen tonight?

 

[Cursed Cat]

Holy sh*t. Have you been listening to Leonard Cohen tonight?

Not tonight, nor any night.