Rumour AFL expansion

WhiskySaint

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Not sure if it has been mentioned in here, but the government (I think) here in Tassie has fronted the money to figure out how to get an AFL team here. They have appointed a pretty big wig group of business people to do it.

The way it's been reported has been that this is a serious push to get it done and the expectation is it will happen. I feel like previously it has been a bit of a "we deserve our own team" but no one actually expected to get one.

I think the deadline on the groups findings/strategy is due at the end of this year.

It goes in hand with (again how I have interpreted the reporting) the push for a Tassie VFL licence which sounds like it is set to happen.

There are reports on it all, but it's all behind the paywall and I'm too lazy to find a way around it.


EDIT: The timing when this all started to suddenly happen seemed to be just after Gil came to Tassie for a visit.
 

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majortinkle

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Not sure what the players would think - they seem fixated on providing only for the elite pros rather than increasing their members and I think tv money would end up being spread more thinly across their members for it to be viable.

For me though, as long as it is done well (NFL-style rather than previous AFL expansion-style in my book) I'm all for it. Expansion drafts for the new teams from players listed on existing AFL teams (each team can protect 10 or so players that can't be picked) rather than massive draft concessions - again the players would have an impact on that.

I don't see that the standard would fall that far. I think it would lengthen careers, an extra 25 kids drafted each year isn't massive, but it would probably kill off all vestige of professionalism in the lower leagues. I don't think we'd recognise a massive difference.

To be honest, long term I'd be aiming to get to 23 teams with everyone playing each other once.

Population-wise I think I worked out that Perth could take 4 and Adelaide 3 teams to be comparable to the current Melbourne population per team, Tassie would have enough for 1 and then I'd have a 'Territories' team.

That's the 5 extra - would they ever be on a completely level playing field as the current behemoths - no - or at least not without the AFL relaxing its sugar daddy rules (which I'd be dubious about - unless we had one lined up...) but clubs like us aren't now as we well know....

Might require a smaller, cheaper stadium to be developed in Melbourne with an increase in interstate teams - again no bad thing for us - we could do with it now most weeks
 

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Not sure what the players would think - they seem fixated on providing only for the elite pros rather than increasing their members and I think tv money would end up being spread more thinly across their members for it to be viable.

For me though, as long as it is done well (NFL-style rather than previous AFL expansion-style in my book) I'm all for it. Expansion drafts for the new teams from players listed on existing AFL teams (each team can protect 10 or so players that can't be picked) rather than massive draft concessions - again the players would have an impact on that.

I don't see that the standard would fall that far. I think it would lengthen careers, an extra 25 kids drafted each year isn't massive, but it would probably kill off all vestige of professionalism in the lower leagues. I don't think we'd recognise a massive difference.

To be honest, long term I'd be aiming to get to 23 teams with everyone playing each other once.

Population-wise I think I worked out that Perth could take 4 and Adelaide 3 teams to be comparable to the current Melbourne population per team, Tassie would have enough for 1 and then I'd have a 'Territories' team.

That's the 5 extra - would they ever be on a completely level playing field as the current behemoths - no - or at least not without the AFL relaxing its sugar daddy rules (which I'd be dubious about - unless we had one lined up...) but clubs like us aren't now as we well know....

Might require a smaller, cheaper stadium to be developed in Melbourne with an increase in interstate teams - again no bad thing for us - we could do with it now most weeks
Means even less games in Melbourne and I can’t agree about the standard. Surely it has to drop. We know we have a fixture and not a draw but it actually should help the bottom sides as it’s broken up into 6 6 6.
 

majortinkle

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Means even less games in Melbourne and I can’t agree about the standard. Surely it has to drop. We know we have a fixture and not a draw but it actually should help the bottom sides as it’s broken up into 6 6 6.
That's true about games in Melbourne but it doesn't reduce games in traditional footy states so probably have to put my hands up as being a non-victorian so don't see a massive downside there....

Yes dropping is inevitable - I'm just saying that I don't think we'd notice it as it would be a small impact. I'm sure we'd blame it for every misplaced disposal for a few years, but I doubt we'd be right to.
 

StCicatriz

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SENs all over it. looks like it's going to happen for tassie. i don't think it will be relocation either.

1) norf won't go for it
2) they want more games and sides for the broadcasters given the issues with tv rights,
3) they want another WA side too.
 

st_trav_ofWA

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its funny that this post has come up ... its almost like we may have been talking to the same person StC...
from what i hear its a strong push from the WAFL (although i dont understand it as a third team would just about kill off the WAFL) the strongest opponent will be the WCE.. they will lobby against it big time as the idea of sharing is seen more like someone stealing from them..
theres a comentary that the 3rd club would be specifically Perth branded, there is a feeling that West Coast doesnt represent any specific city but an entire state and that was fine back in 87 but since Freo came in there is a feel that Perth needs to be represented (worth noting years ago an idea to change the WCE name to the Perth eagles was squashed really quickly)..
i dont think it will end up happening here in WA the WCE we fight it to hard and in the end the support for it in the state will fizzle
 

StCicatriz

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its funny that this post has come up ... its almost like we may have been talking to the same person StC...
from what i hear its a strong push from the WAFL (although i dont understand it as a third team would just about kill off the WAFL) the strongest opponent will be the WCE.. they will lobby against it big time as the idea of sharing is seen more like someone stealing from them..
theres a comentary that the 3rd club would be specifically Perth branded, there is a feeling that West Coast doesnt represent any specific city but an entire state and that was fine back in 87 but since Freo came in there is a feel that Perth needs to be represented (worth noting years ago an idea to change the WCE name to the Perth eagles was squashed really quickly)..
i dont think it will end up happening here in WA the WCE we fight it to hard and in the end the support for it in the state will fizzle
i kind of think its needed, but agree with your observation, WCE will fight this to the grave. we've created this massive monopoly where one side has the lion share of support. its crazy how much influence WCE has now. they're literally raking in 10s of millions a year, completely unopposed. they're bigger than collingwood, hawthorn, richmond and whomever else now. they have no need to buy back their licence as their relationship with the WAFC is extremely good. they basically get what they want.

last i heard was the powers that be floating the idea of merging Perth Demons with West Perth Cardinals. To be named the Perth Cardinals. problem is since then WCE have moved into perths home ground and West Perth are pretty much bankrupt after writing off their debt. West Perth has a massive following. whilst Perth has a very resilient supporter base, that now is starting to bring in a wealthy demographic.

tbh i think it's going to happen. they'll then turn their eye to a 3rd SA team, but only once the crows and power stabilise now that they're paying off their licence.
 

Animal Cager

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20 teams, ridiculous.

Is there are market for a third team in WA, which would probably be in Perth? I doubt it.

How long are Gold Coast going to last? The Gold Coast has been a graveyard for sporting teams of all Codes.

GWS have more support in Canberra than Sydney. They'll probably end up playing most home games in Canberra.

How firm is Nth Melbourne's future in Melbourne given their small supporter base? They already play home games in Hobart.

These are scenarios based in reality.

If you have a Tasmanian team, where will it be based, the North or the South or both? The most plausible scenario is that Gold Coast or Nth. Melbourne will relocate to Tasmania and we'll maintain an 18 team competition.
 

StCicatriz

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20 teams, ridiculous.

Is there are market for a third team in WA, which would probably be in Perth? I doubt it.

How long are Gold Coast going to last? The Gold Coast has been a graveyard for sporting teams of all Codes.

GWS have more support in Canberra than Sydney. They'll probably end up playing most home games in Canberra.

How firm is Nth Melbourne's future in Melbourne given their small supporter base? They already play home games in Hobart.

These are scenarios based in reality.

If you have a Tasmanian team, where will it be based, the North or the South or both? The most plausible scenario is that Gold Coast or Nth. Melbourne will relocate to Tasmania and we'll maintain an 18 team competition.
given WCE turned a 7.5 million profit along with using 35m of their own money towards a new facility, i'd say there's ample room for another WA side.

put it this way, i think a 3rd WA side is more viable than North Melbourne, who are already in the competition.
 

Animal Cager

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given WCE turned a 7.5 million profit along with using 35m of their own money towards a new facility, i'd say there's ample room for another WA side.

put it this way, i think a 3rd WA side is more viable than North Melbourne, who are already in the competition.
Wouldn't most AFL followers in Perth be either West Coast or Freo supporters?
 

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StCicatriz

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Wouldn't most AFL followers in Perth be either West Coast or Freo supporters?
that's what they said when freo were introduced into the comp post 1995.

i'm was born in Perth. my parents are not Saints supporters. but i'm a saint.

i'm not suggesting the WA side would be as big as the eagles, but i think there's a place for them to have an attendance around 20k from the get go. from there its about growth.

the issue is you won't see growth from north melbourne and the big 4 are looking at this from a compounded benefit point of view. you erode the WA powerbase whilst giving your self the chance to canabilise the supporter base in melbourne.

put it this way, if you're a club like ours, it's never been more important to become self sufficient with as little overhead as possible. this includes debt. this includes extra AFL assistance. we just need to stay away from being in the bottom 2.
 

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20 teams, ridiculous.

Is there are market for a third team in WA, which would probably be in Perth? I doubt it.

How long are Gold Coast going to last? The Gold Coast has been a graveyard for sporting teams of all Codes.

GWS have more support in Canberra than Sydney. They'll probably end up playing most home games in Canberra.

How firm is Nth Melbourne's future in Melbourne given their small supporter base? They already play home games in Hobart.

These are scenarios based in reality.

If you have a Tasmanian team, where will it be based, the North or the South or both? The most plausible scenario is that Gold Coast or Nth. Melbourne will relocate to Tasmania and we'll maintain an 18 team competition.
I see it as a far more complex issue, and i'm not sure the AFL are managing things well.
( in fact i think Gill is a Dill, and he's too busy trying to make everyone happy to consider good strategy ).

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/nrl-on-course-for-tv-ratings-victory-over-afl-20180527-p4zhsd.html ( an old article ).

The average free-to-air Audience for the NRL is 612,689 in 2018, compared to 317,003 for the AFL. The AFL will say that it has cross-over timeslots and doesn’t go free to air with the same games nationally, but the raw numbers show that NRL is dominant.

The average subscription TV audience (Foxtel) for the NRL is 244,853 in 2018, compared to 180,387 for the AFL
----------------------------------------------------------
My personal opinion is that they went with the big cash from Foxtel, at the expense of the free to air. There simply aren't as many games on FTA as the old Seven /Ten combo gave us, and that is consting them popularity. You see the NRL and AFL ratings are much closer on Foxtel.

Tasmania has around twice the population of Geelong, but not all in one place like Geelong. Hobart has around 200 000. Launceston 100 000.
( So Launceston is Like Ballarat, or Bendigo , or Albury/Wadonga ).

Canberra has 400 000, so it makes more sense for GWS to have home games there , than it does to have a team in Tassie.

The AFL have a system where the clubs live on gate takings but the AFL itself makes far more money from broadcast rights.

Old data again, but according to this....
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7356-afl-grand-final-viewers-september-2017-201710020358

68% of Tasmanian watched the Grand Final. Its a good proportion but only amounts to around 130 000 people.
27% of Queenslanders watched the Grand Final. That's 1 350 000 people.

It was the Richmond/Adelaide final, so its interesting that only 65% if South Aussie's watched it. Would Queensland or W.A. improve if they had a team in it?

Anyway , mathematically i can see why its more than just bums on seats at the game. I think the AFL is pretty happy to collect tv rights and bail out the clubs with struggling attendance.

Now of those 130 000 people who watched the Grand Final, how many would roll up to the game each week. Would North really get better home game attendance if they went there?
 

ronnysnodgrass

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Western bulldogs to WA, Southern Saints to Tasmania? (only half joking as much as i don't want it to happen personally)
 

majortinkle

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I see it as a far more complex issue, and i'm not sure the AFL are managing things well.
( in fact i think Gill is a Dill, and he's too busy trying to make everyone happy to consider good strategy ).

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/nrl-on-course-for-tv-ratings-victory-over-afl-20180527-p4zhsd.html ( an old article ).

The average free-to-air Audience for the NRL is 612,689 in 2018, compared to 317,003 for the AFL. The AFL will say that it has cross-over timeslots and doesn’t go free to air with the same games nationally, but the raw numbers show that NRL is dominant.

The average subscription TV audience (Foxtel) for the NRL is 244,853 in 2018, compared to 180,387 for the AFL
----------------------------------------------------------
My personal opinion is that they went with the big cash from Foxtel, at the expense of the free to air. There simply aren't as many games on FTA as the old Seven /Ten combo gave us, and that is consting them popularity. You see the NRL and AFL ratings are much closer on Foxtel.

Tasmania has around twice the population of Geelong, but not all in one place like Geelong. Hobart has around 200 000. Launceston 100 000.
( So Launceston is Like Ballarat, or Bendigo , or Albury/Wadonga ).

Canberra has 400 000, so it makes more sense for GWS to have home games there , than it does to have a team in Tassie.

The AFL have a system where the clubs live on gate takings but the AFL itself makes far more money from broadcast rights.

Old data again, but according to this....
http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7356-afl-grand-final-viewers-september-2017-201710020358

68% of Tasmanian watched the Grand Final. Its a good proportion but only amounts to around 130 000 people.
27% of Queenslanders watched the Grand Final. That's 1 350 000 people.

It was the Richmond/Adelaide final, so its interesting that only 65% if South Aussie's watched it. Would Queensland or W.A. improve if they had a team in it?

Anyway , mathematically i can see why its more than just bums on seats at the game. I think the AFL is pretty happy to collect tv rights and bail out the clubs with struggling attendance.

Now of those 130 000 people who watched the Grand Final, how many would roll up to the game each week. Would North really get better home game attendance if they went there?
The NRL figures are surprising. They have much smaller physical attendances in my mind though don't they (then again I'd have said they had smaller tv audience too - living in a Tassie bubble obviously! It stands for Not Real League - am I right?). That might go some way to flagging why tv ratings are lower.

Begs the question why Foxtel pay more for AFL rights really doesn't it....

I'd be interested in the comparative viewing figures for a bog standard AFL game between Tassie and Queensland. Grand finals aren't really representative.

There's no doubt a Tassie team would have to go half and half between Hobart or Lonny - just wouldn't get the buy in otherwise.
 

st_trav_ofWA

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the WCE have also already shown they have the power to influence the WA government .. look at optus stadium and the capacity of it .. the Eagles lobbied to make sure it wasnt a bigger stadium .. the stadium is bigger than subi oval yet the visiting clubs havent been able to get 1 extra seat for their fans .... funny that ...
 

plugger66

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given WCE turned a 7.5 million profit along with using 35m of their own money towards a new facility, i'd say there's ample room for another WA side.

put it this way, i think a 3rd WA side is more viable than North Melbourne, who are already in the competition.
Doesn’t matter about north. It’s about a third western Australian side and who will follow them. I doubt they will have enough support. Freo makes sense because it had 2 sides and of course wce makes sense. Anyway doubt it happens. Makes no sense especially if they can get a side to relocate to tassie. Not even sure tassie works because they are so split
 

plugger66

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The NRL figures are surprising. They have much smaller physical attendances in my mind though don't they (then again I'd have said they had smaller tv audience too - living in a Tassie bubble obviously! It stands for Not Real League - am I right?). That might go some way to flagging why tv ratings are lower.

Begs the question why Foxtel pay more for AFL rights really doesn't it....

I'd be interested in the comparative viewing figures for a bog standard AFL game between Tassie and Queensland. Grand finals aren't really representative.

There's no doubt a Tassie team would have to go half and half between Hobart or Lonny - just wouldn't get the buy in otherwise.
Foxtel pay so much because I doubt Foxtel exists in its current form without the 2 footy codes.
 

st_trav_ofWA

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you make a good point about the tv ratings being skewed for the AFL from previous years .. i remember clearly the old 9 and 10 days of footy in Perth with Friday having a prime time game Saturday we had an early game and the night game and sunday we would have the afternoon game and if the dockers or eagles were playing the later slot an extra game on sunday ...
now in perth you get the friday game , if the WCE or Dockers are playing a Saturday arvo game if not no game, the saturday night game and if the WCE or Dockers are playing in Melb the sunday game delayed so it runs into the news ...
its Crazy in perth Channel 7 paid billions of dollars to show LESS footy ?!?!?!
 

StCicatriz

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Doesn’t matter about north. It’s about a third western Australian side and who will follow them. I doubt they will have enough support. Freo makes sense because it had 2 sides and of course wce makes sense. Anyway doubt it happens. Makes no sense especially if they can get a side to relocate to tassie. Not even sure tassie works because they are so split
Freo had 2 sides?
 

plugger66

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you make a good point about the tv ratings being skewed for the AFL from previous years .. i remember clearly the old 9 and 10 days of footy in Perth with Friday having a prime time game Saturday we had an early game and the night game and sunday we would have the afternoon game and if the dockers or eagles were playing the later slot an extra game on sunday ...
now in perth you get the friday game , if the WCE or Dockers are playing a Saturday arvo game if not no game, the saturday night game and if the WCE or Dockers are playing in Melb the sunday game delayed so it runs into the news ...
its Crazy in perth Channel 7 paid billions of dollars to show LESS footy ?!?!?!
They win the ratings because of footy. That sounds good to advertisers
 

StCicatriz

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Wasn’t there east and south
yeah but i don't understand your point, how's that any different to the suggested Perth Cardinals side?

plus East Fremantle and South Fremantle hate each other. it's like trying to merge Collingwood with Carlton. So if you think Tassie won't work because South and North are too split to unite under one club, then wouldn't Freo have failed? isn't it the same reasoning?
 

st_trav_ofWA

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Doesn’t matter about north. It’s about a third western Australian side and who will follow them. I doubt they will have enough support. Freo makes sense because it had 2 sides and of course wce makes sense. Anyway doubt it happens. Makes no sense especially if they can get a side to relocate to tassie. Not even sure tassie works because they are so split
whe have the population for it and there are enough on the fringe supporters to make a third team viable, there are enough footy supporters who hate the dockers and dont really like the eagles either who would jump on, there are enough interstate supporters who are fed up with their team who could jump over to them (a few saints supporters i know prob would give them a go) but the fight the WCE will put up will make it very hard .. without that fight it could work but with the WCE going to war over it nup cant see it working..
 

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yeah but i don't understand your point, how's that any different to the suggested Perth Cardinals side?

plus East Fremantle and South Fremantle hate each other. it's like trying to merge Collingwood with Carlton. So if you think Tassie won't work because South and North are too split to unite under one club, then wouldn't Freo have failed? isn't it the same reasoning?
They have 2 supporting sides who have freo in their name. That’s why it helps. Where are the supporters for a new club coming from. The rest of your point has me bearing on what I’m thinking unless the 2 freo side are 200k apart.
 
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