AFL AFL futures 2018

[PHX]

My calcs say from 2009 to 2017 $1.60 to $1.80 favourites only win 53.6% of the time.

Which goes to show how hard it is pick winners in that range.


Credit to Aussportsbetting for the raw data.

 

[mookieb]

North over 6.5 looks one of the better plays to me. They finished on 6 wins last year after an awful run with injuries, 5 losses by less than a kick and a tougher draw than they will get this year

Suns for the Wooden Spoon as well. They're list is worse than last year and their draw for the first half of the year is putrid with Metricon out of action. Home games in Perth, Cairns, the Gabba and Shanghai to start off the year. Back to back trips to Perth too. Thats before they even have to start playing the good teams.

Interesting. I have NM as highly likely for the wooden spoon. Lost 4 or 5 experienced players the year before and the same last year. No option now but to play the kids they have now. Starting 22 is poor and midfield and backline looks very weak.

Alternatively i'm high on GC improving. They tend to start reasonably well and then get decimated by injuries / turn into a rabble later in the season. So I would consider their list better than last year primarily due to a full list to choose from and improvement from younger brigade such as Fiorini. I think Dew will make a massive difference.

It's only JLT but NM have been terrible and GC encouraging.

Of course i'm not touching GC futures because of their terrible schedule (they have a home game in Perth lol) and they tend to collapse later in the season. I'm on them to beat NM round 1 though.

 

[Jugada]

Interesting. I have NM as highly likely for the wooden spoon. Lost 4 or 5 experienced players the year before and the same last year. No option now but to play the kids they have now. Starting 22 is poor and midfield and backline looks very weak.

Alternatively i'm high on GC improving. They tend to start reasonably well and then get decimated by injuries / turn into a rabble later in the season. So I would consider their list better than last year primarily due to a full list to choose from and improvement from younger brigade such as Fiorini. I think Dew will make a massive difference.

It's only JLT but NM have been terrible and GC encouraging.

Of course i'm not touching GC futures because of their terrible schedule (they have a home game in Perth lol) and they tend to collapse later in the season. I'm on them to beat NM round 1 though.

Most the players they lost were garbage and not even best 22. Getting a full year out of some of their good younger players like Wood, Turner, Preuss, Simpkin, Williams plus having their older players like Waite, Jacobs and Wright fit has to be a positive on last year

Their backline is weak but it should be stronger than it was for most of last year and they won 6 games still. The forward line looks a hell of a lot stronger heading into round 1 than it did last year though

 

[qarocks]

My calcs say from 2009 to 2017 $1.60 to $1.80 favourites only win 53.6% of the time.

Which goes to show how hard it is pick winners in that range.


Credit to Aussportsbetting for the raw data.

Wow that’s pretty interesting, I would have thought at least 60%

What do the stats say on $1.20 - $1.50 favourites? I would assume at least 70%?

 

[PHX]

Wow that’s pretty interesting, I would have thought at least 60%

What do the stats say on $1.20 - $1.50 favourites? I would assume at least 70%?

68% favourites to 32% underdogs.

I really should have done a better job of formatting the spreadsheet to be more flexible than finding the one result I was looking for because it's surprised me too but when you think about something as simple as footy tipping and how hard it is to even average 6 out of 9 each week for the year it probably does make sense that an underdog will win that often.

I'll clean it up and hopefully have some more detailed interval percentages to share.

 

[checkraiseulite]

thanks

 

[qarocks]

I found the spreadsheet on aussportsbetting and made up my own set of data!
here's some numbers for everyone:

Home Team
$1.00-$1.10 Favs 189
Winners 177
% Win Rate 93.7%

$1.11-$1.20 Favs 177
Winners 157
% Win Rate 88.7%

$1.21-$1.30 Favs 131
Winners 100
% Win Rate 76.3%

$1.31-$1.40 Favs 136
Winners 94
% Win Rate 69.1%

$1.41-$1.50 Favs 95
Winners 52
% Win Rate 54.7%

$1.51-$1.60 Favs 83
Winners 59
% Win Rate 71.1%

$1.61-$1.70 Favs 87
Winners 49
% Win Rate 56.3%

$1.71-$1.80 Favs 50
Winners 24
% Win Rate 48.0%

$1.81-$1.90 Favs 70
Winners 37
% Win Rate 52.9%

 

[qarocks]

Away Team
$1.00-$1.10 Favs 84
Winners 77
% Win Rate 91.7%
$1.11-$1.20 Favs 87
Winners 72
% Win Rate 82.8%
$1.21-$1.30 Favs 99
Winners 72
% Win Rate 72.7%
$1.31-$1.40 Favs 94
Winners 59
% Win Rate 62.8%
$1.41-$1.50 Favs 95
Winners 59
% Win Rate 62.1%
$1.51-$1.60 Favs 74
Winners 46
% Win Rate 62.2%
$1.61-$1.70 Favs 74
Winners 36
% Win Rate 48.6%
$1.71-$1.80 Favs 65
Winners 36
% Win Rate 55.4%
$1.81-$1.90 Favs 47
Winners 25
% Win Rate 53.2%

 

[qarocks]

Favs General
$1.00-$1.10 Favs 273
Winners 254
% Win Rate 93.0%

$1.11-$1.20 Favs 264
Winners 229
% Win Rate 86.7%

$1.21-$1.30 Favs 230
Winners 172
% Win Rate 74.8%

$1.31-$1.40 Favs 230
Winners 153
% Win Rate 66.5%

$1.41-$1.50 Favs 190
Winners 111
% Win Rate 58.4%

$1.51-$1.60 Favs 157
Winners 105
% Win Rate 66.9%

$1.61-$1.70 Favs 161
Winners 85
% Win Rate 52.8%

$1.71-$1.80 Favs 115
Winners 60
% Win Rate 52.2%

$1.81-$1.90 Favs 117
Winners 62
% Win Rate 53.0%

 

[qarocks]

Home sides under $2 win 72.4% Average Home Score 94 Home win 56.9% Home Fav Win % 74%
Away sides under $2 win 65.7% Average Away Score 86 Away Win 43.1% Away Fav Win % 67.3%

 

[qarocks]

Over/Under games 826
Over 379 45.9%
Under 447 54.1%

 

[HumanMeatball]

I don’t mind the picking 1 favourite a week every week and seeing how far you get, but I certainly would take odds lower then $1.60 if I attempted it

 

[langdon19]

Bris women to win outright at $7 365 and $8 crown i have nibbled. Might drop their first game vs Adl in Adl, if so i will be watching the odds closely. Did not loose a home and away game last season, hope the loss of Tayla Harris will be covered. Defensive side, which apparently wins premierships.

Half unit premiers @$6SB
1 unit to make gf @$3SB

Thought Bris had choked themselves out of the GF

 

[qarocks]

I don’t mind the picking 1 favourite a week every week and seeing how far you get, but I certainly would take odds lower then $1.60 if I attempted it

If you take a $1.20 fav, starting with a $50 stake, and compound over $23 weeks, you can return $3300.
Would be handy if you could pull it off!

 

[PHX]

Legend, qarocks .

 

[Sausage Legs]

If you take a $1.20 fav, starting with a $50 stake, and compound over $23 weeks, you can return $3300.
Would be handy if you could pull it off!

It is very rare someone can go thru a full year like last man standing and not get rolled somewhere

 

[PHX]

Just mucking around with the data made two columns for home or away winners and home or away winners as favourite or underdog.

There is a pivot attached with slicers for venues, teams and odds for home and away or you can just use the table to filter to what you want.

It's nothing special but hopefully some find the extra detail useful.

http://www.mediafire.com/file/ksh4burp568v2gc/afl.xlsx

 

[Snookers]

Dylan Shiel Brownlow / Giants flag $15 outlay @ 459/1

 

[qarocks]

It is very rare someone can go thru a full year like last man standing and not get rolled somewhere

Yeh that's what got all this started. Surely you can pick one team each week that's a moral. When you do the footy tipping there's always 3-4 you enter right away with no real thought.
Looking at the odds data, you can really see the % chance of winning tiers open up. Anything over $1.30 quickly becomes 60/40 - 50/50 pretty quickly.

According to the odds data, richmond should have a 89% of winning based on previous results.
Saints and Port at 1.29/1.30 have a 69% chance of winning.

Still, it will be an interesting challenge to try and get 23 in a row.

 

[mookieb]

Yeh that's what got all this started. Surely you can pick one team each week that's a moral. When you do the footy tipping there's always 3-4 you enter right away with no real thought.
Looking at the odds data, you can really see the % chance of winning tiers open up. Anything over $1.30 quickly becomes 60/40 - 50/50 pretty quickly.

According to the odds data, richmond should have a 89% of winning based on previous results.
Saints and Port at 1.29/1.30 have a 69% chance of winning.

Still, it will be an interesting challenge to try and get 23 in a row.

If you were doing this in the NRL you would be done already with the Storm rolled in round 2.

 

[Vhaluus]

I found the spreadsheet on aussportsbetting and made up my own set of data!
here's some numbers for everyone:

You're a legend, I've been looking for a sheet with opening/closing odds for historical games and you found it.

 

[qarocks]

You're a legend, I've been looking for a sheet with opening/closing odds for historical games and you found it.

Don't thank me, it was PHX at the top of this page who let us on to the website with the data! Cheers anyway though!

 

[ash_1050]

Plonked a bit on before the start of the round for Giants Top 8 @ 1.35 and Giants Top 4 @ 2.50. Not a week to week better and at that price it's better than interest in the bank.

 

[iluvparis]

Plonked a bit on before the start of the round for Giants Top 8 @ 1.35 and Giants Top 4 @ 2.50. Not a week to week better and at that price it's better than interest in the bank.

Especially when they just won by 80 points!

 

[ash_1050]

Especially when they just won by 80 points!

It's a good start, 22 weeks to go though.