AFL AFL Futures 2019

(Log in to remove this ad.)

mouncey2franklin

Club Legend
Jun 16, 2018
2,254
3,400
AFL Club
North Melbourne
CantThinkOfName I like this post, it has got me thinking, and even though I disagree with your conclusion, I don't mean any of what follows as a criticism.

I appreciate your sharing your thought process.

Cash out the $275 and place it on a multi of brisbane and bulldogs to win @$4 = return of $1100
Currently 3.89 for the multi so 275 x 3.89 = 1070

Place that $1100 on the bulldogs in the semi at approx $2.50 = return of 2750
If Dogs win they play loser of Bris vs Rich so Richmond in this decision tree.

I could see the Dogs starting even longer than $2.50 vs Rich at the 'G so I am with you so far.

1070 x 2.50 = 2675.

Placed that $2750 on a multi of brisbane and bulldogs to win the prelim (brisbane $2, wb $3 = $6 odds) = $16.5k
Why would Brisbane be $2 at home after winning their qualifying final against Richmond? Shorter than that, surely.

Meanwhile the Dogs would be playing Geel / Coll at the 'G, which I would think would put them around $2.50-$2.80.

This would mean that the Brisbane / Dogs mutli could be as low as 4s.

2675 x 4.50 (being generous) = 12,040 (rounding up).

So if you dont want to risk it all you could cash out the $275, pocket $110 of it (guaranteed $100 profit) then place the remaining $165 on the steps above which would get a return of $10k anyway so you wont be kicking yourself if it gets up.
On my guesses for opening prices of hypothetical matches, this strategy would mean the $165 would turn into about $7,200.

So it all comes down to what you think Brisbane will paying at home in a prelim (after beating Richmond) and the Dogs will be paying at the 'G in a prelim vs either Geelong or Collingwood.

If your guesses are closer to mine, the CantThinkofName strategy may not be so enticing.

If however you think his guesses are more accurate than mine, his strategy seems sound.

And to be fair, if anything, I could see the Dogs starting longer than $2.50 vs Richmond, which would tilt things in CTON's direction.

---

Anyway, interesting to think through it.
 

CantThinkOfName

Draftee
Dec 11, 2015
12
13
AFL Club
Fremantle
CantThinkOfName I like this post, it has got me thinking, and even though I disagree with your conclusion, I don't mean any of what follows as a criticism.

I appreciate your sharing your thought process.



Currently 3.89 for the multi so 275 x 3.89 = 1070



If Dogs win they play loser of Bris vs Rich so Richmond in this decision tree.

I could see the Dogs starting even longer than $2.50 vs Rich at the 'G so I am with you so far.

1070 x 2.50 = 2675.



Why would Brisbane be $2 at home after winning their qualifying final against Richmond? Shorter than that, surely.

Meanwhile the Dogs would be playing Geel / Coll at the 'G, which I would think would put them around $2.50-$2.80.

This would mean that the Brisbane / Dogs mutli could be as low as 4s.

2675 x 4.50 (being generous) = 12,040 (rounding up).



On my guesses for opening prices of hypothetical matches, this strategy would mean the $165 would turn into about $7,200.

So it all comes down to what you think Brisbane will paying at home in a prelim (after beating Richmond) and the Dogs will be paying at the 'G in a prelim vs either Geelong or Collingwood.

If your guesses are closer to mine, the CantThinkofName strategy may not be so enticing.

If however you think his guesses are more accurate than mine, his strategy seems sound.

And to be fair, if anything, I could see the Dogs starting longer than $2.50 vs Richmond, which would tilt things in CTON's direction.

---

Anyway, interesting to think through it.
Yeah must admit my predicted odds were very rough and didn't put to much thought into it, I just wanted to show that their was no risk in cashing out. Even with your predicted odds though it would get a return of $12k which is still more than the $10k he's getting now. Would agree that brisbane will be shorter than $2 but probably around 1.75-1.80 IMO, inexperienced finals team vsing WCE/Gee/Col.

So yeah he might not get $10k return if he puts the 165 on all of it, but no matter how conservative you are with the odds he will get a greater odds from cashing out and multiing the single legs, its just up to him how much he wants as guaranteed profit vs how much he wants to win if it gets up.
 

BuddysBiggestFan

Club Legend
Oct 24, 2008
2,701
2,371
Hawthorn
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Grab a notepad kids and listen up.
You have to absolutely cash out as you have stumbled across the flaw in the cash out offer formula. When they calculate your cash out offer the flaw in the system is that they use the odds they are offering on the market as the probability($23 = 4.3% chance of happening) of the event winning instead of the actual probability of the event winning (which is about $60 odds = 1.7%). So right now if you dont cash out and the bet wins you get $10k, but you could really get $16k if you cash out and place it on all the events that need to get up in order for your bet to win. Example:
Cash out the $275 and place it on a multi of brisbane and bulldogs to win @$4 = return of $1100
Place that $1100 on the bulldogs in the semi at approx $2.50 = return of 2750
Placed that $2750 on a multi of brisbane and bulldogs to win the prelim (brisbane $2, wb $3 = $6 odds) = $16.5k

Now obviously im just guessing what odds each team will open at but I think the above odds are realistic-ish.

So if you dont want to risk it all you could cash out the $275, pocket $110 of it (guaranteed $100 profit) then place the remaining $165 on the steps above which would get a return of $10k anyway so you wont be kicking yourself if it gets up.

Hope that makes sense
Awesome advice. Thanks buddy!

Thankyou to everyone else as well!
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
40,349
43,076
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The basketcase of SA football didn't do you any favours
Its got to a stage where supporters of both Clubs didnt want to make the finals. We need our coaches out of there.

The irony being that Woosha got his team to the finals and is likely to be sacked, but Hinkley and Pyke will keep their jobs.
 

Top Bottom