AFL AFL Futures 2019

RooTed

Senior List
Oct 25, 2017
189
95
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Anyone able to advise of any changes re rules etc. for next season that may change results such as TGS or player props? If so what is the expecting result +/-?
I'd assume they want more goals but not sure how much and I'd also think maybe possessions could reduce? TIA.
 

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benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
629
333
AFL Club
Fremantle
I dont know about competition wide, but i know Fremantle are trying to play longer kicking down the line due to the rule changes, one being the kick out change and the second i think the hands in the back rule being altered. Outside of that the 666 rule could cause more goals from quick clearances
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,547
2,687
AFL Club
Collingwood
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Team season wins are out on SB.
GWS stands out to me +-12.5 @1.90 seems pretty generous given they are 1.47 to make the top 8, you’d think this would require minimum 13 wins.
 

X_box_X

King of September
Mar 15, 2001
19,729
5,576
DogLands
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Western Bulldogs
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Chelsea
Team season wins are out on SB.
GWS stands out to me +-12.5 @1.90 seems pretty generous given they are 1.47 to make the top 8, you’d think this would require minimum 13 wins.
I agree, good value.

I don't think the $1.47 represents a fair price on them to make the eight, though. I'd be looking at Betfair for a truer reflection, where their back and lay prices are $1.65 and $1.67 respectively.

Regardless, you have identified a future bet that is good value. Props to you!
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
19,132
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Melbourne
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Richmond
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I agree, good value.

I don't think the $1.47 represents a fair price on them to make the eight, though. I'd be looking at Betfair for a truer reflection, where their back and lay prices are $1.65 and $1.67 respectively.

Regardless, you have identified a future bet that is good value. Props to you!
Bit of a risk but I have found with future top 8 markets the best time to place it is in the first 3 rounds of the season, not before the season starts.
What you are hoping for is a team you are confident on to lose in an upset in week 1 or 2 that often happens early in the year, but are still confident in them.

After a suprise loss that usually doesn't mean much you'll often find a team's top 8 odds can move from like $1.60 to $1.70 or so based on one early loss. I've used this succesfully in the past to get good value, I did this with Melbourne last year as I was high on them but they lost in round 1, and for example Collingwood and West Coast both lost in round 1 which would have inflated their odds. The Swans and Hawks have also been good teams to do this with as they don't always start the season that well.

You can extend it to about round 4, if your team is 1-3 or 2-2 that's great, the value comes as people overemphasise early season wins and losses

For 2019, I really like the Bombers to make the 8, but I think the Giants can beat them in round 1 which should boost their top 8 odds after that potential loss (the risk is if they win). Likewise the Giants could potentially start 0-2 if the Bombers and Eagles in Perth beat them, which would make their odds really nice.

Collingwood is another one, could potentially be upset by Geelong in Rd 1 and then maybe beaten by the Tigers in Rd 2 which would see them at 0-2 and better odds.

Richmond will beat Carlton which is not good for this system, but the next 2 weeks we have Collingwood and GWS away, so 1-2 is not out of the question and might be a time to back us after round 3.

Just some food for thought as a way to extract maximum value.
 
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juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
19,132
24,210
Melbourne
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Richmond
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New York Jets
I would also love to be able to lay teams that you know won't make the 8 (Carlton, GC).
This is extremely safe money the problem is you need to outlay initially the bet you would have to cover and have it tied up all season before you win it.

So yeh, Carlton won't make the 8 and it's an easy $1000 to make, the problem is I don't have 12k to sit in betfair all year to cover it!
 

Angus Young

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 3, 2008
5,594
5,639
The Gunge Farm
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Bit of a risk but I have found with future top 8 markets the best time to place it is in the first 3 rounds of the season, not before the season starts.
What you are hoping for is a team you are confident on to lose in an upset in week 1 or 2 that often happens early in the year, but are still confident in them.

After a suprise loss that usually doesn't mean much you'll often find a team's top 8 odds can move from like $1.60 to $1.70 or so based on one early loss. I've used this succesfully in the past to get good value, I did this with Melbourne last year as I was high on them but they lost in round 1, and for example Collingwood and West Coast both lost in round 1 which would have inflated their odds. The Swans and Hawks have also been good teams to do this with as they don't always start the season that well.

You can extend it to about round 4, if your team is 1-3 or 2-2 that's great, the value comes as people overemphasise early season wins and losses

For 2019, I really like the Bombers to make the 8, but I think the Giants can beat them in round 1 which should boost their top 8 odds after that potential loss (the risk is if they win). Likewise the Giants could potentially start 0-2 if the Bombers and Eagles in Perth beat them, which would make their odds really nice.

Collingwood is another one, could potentially be upset by Geelong in Rd 1 and then maybe beaten by the Tigers in Rd 2 which would see them at 0-2 and better odds.

Richmond will beat Carlton which is not good for this system, but the next 2 weeks we have Collingwood and GWS away, so 1-2 is not out of the question and might be a time to back us after round 3.

Just some food for thought as a way to extract maximum value.
Sharp
 

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Keystone agony

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 15, 2011
15,595
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Essendon
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North Melbourne 2.01 to beat Freo round 1 looks very good value. No Blakely or Neale. S.Hill no pre season at all either, Walters limited. There midfield will be terrible.

Whilst Hall, Jacobs, Ahern, Tyson, Higgins, Cunners, Goldy have all had food preseasons. Travel fairly well think they went pretty well against north last year at optus....Won by 28 pts

Luke Mcdonald back to his 2017 season across half back.

Also Melbourne 1.40 vs Port at MCG. Probably no Wines or a limited one. Polec and Wingard already lost. If no wines thats a serious hole against a quality demons outfit favourite for the flag for me.

Also quite like Doggies vs Sydney at etihad. Swnas are so slow on the fast deck dogs will cut them apart. I see a heap of improvement in the dogs potentially top 8 somethings brewing again at the kennell. Quality on every line. Libba back allows Bont forward early. Can Bont, Schache, Trengove, Lloyd, Cavarra, Gowers, F.Greene kick a score i think so.... maybe no buddy
 

chrisdon16

Premiership Player
Mar 20, 2013
3,265
2,161
Launceston, TAS
AFL Club
Essendon
Going to have quite a large splurge on the Dees to make top 4 @ $2.15 (top). Hogan loss hurts a little but will free up McDonald and imo he's a better forward. With the addition of May and then Lever back mid season, they should have the best defence this year along with Richmond.
 

iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
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Carlton
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Hoping the Dees have a big win in Round 1 then I would be tempted to lay the living crap out of them in all the big markets - top 2, 4, flag etc.

The hype around them is approaching Kementari levels - they are pretenders and those backing them might want to re-watch last years prelim.
 

chrisdon16

Premiership Player
Mar 20, 2013
3,265
2,161
Launceston, TAS
AFL Club
Essendon
The hype around them is approaching Kementari levels - they are pretenders and those backing them might want to re-watch last years prelim.
They had a shocker in the prelim no doubt about it, they were embarrased. But it was the clubs first prelim in 18 years, personally I think they got overly confident after the performances in the quarter/semi. I've watched a lot of interviews during their pre season and the consistent message is the sting left from the prelim, gets brought up in nearly all the player interviews. Will help them be hungrier this season IMO. Their performance in the first two finals can't be ignored.
 

iluvparis

Hall of Famer
Apr 1, 2005
33,210
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They had a shocker in the prelim no doubt about it, they were embarrased. But it was the clubs first prelim in 18 years, personally I think they got overly confident after the performances in the quarter/semi. I've watched a lot of interviews during their pre season and the consistent message is the sting left from the prelim, gets brought up in nearly all the player interviews. Will help them be hungrier this season IMO. Their performance in the first two finals can't be ignored.
Yeah I think they are probably the only team hungry to win it this year so I'll change my view.

In the first two finals they caught former great teams well on the way down and if that Hawks player doesn't hit the post from 20m out (can't remember who) in the 3rd quarter of the semi they are on the verge of folding. Happy to discount those performances quite heavily given how they folded when the true pressure was on in the prelim.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
5,728
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West Coast
Some strong confirmation biases going on with reasoning here. Loss of Hogan is a big loss and not sure how it will free up McDonald... if anything he is now going to cop even more heat as the number one forward with no one else to share the load with.

Also if you are using motivation as a reason to back team x, y or z to win the flag then you need to reassess too
 

chrisdon16

Premiership Player
Mar 20, 2013
3,265
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Launceston, TAS
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Essendon
Some strong confirmation biases going on with reasoning here. Loss of Hogan is a big loss and not sure how it will free up McDonald... if anything he is now going to cop even more heat as the number one forward with no one else to share the load with.

Also if you are using motivation as a reason to back team x, y or z to win the flag then you need to reassess too
You might be right, but if he cops more heat it's going to free up other guys around him to be more productive. Melksham, Petracca, Neal Bullen, Garlett, Hannan all have the ability to pick up some load.

Having one of the best lists in the league is the main reason I'm keen to back them. Motivation is just my personal opinion that it may help, could be wrong.
 

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