AFL AFL Futures 2019

[adammania9]

SportsBet have dropped some futures and I reckon there’s some good early value going on

To Make The Top 8:
Adelaide $1.80
Essendon $1.90
GWS Giants $1.50
North Melbourne $2.25
Brisbane $6

Miss The Top 8:
Geelong $1.90
Port Adelaide $1.70
Sydney $2
Collingwood $3.50

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Angus Bratshaw $26 for Brownlow.

Imagine how many votes he’ll get if he has a good year. Possibly 50.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

SportsBet have dropped some futures and I reckon there’s some good early value going on

To Make The Top 8:
Adelaide $1.80
Essendon $1.90
GWS Giants $1.50
North Melbourne $2.25
Brisbane $6

Miss The Top 8:
Geelong $1.90
Port Adelaide $1.70
Sydney $2
Collingwood $3.50

Adelaide 1.80 fantastic

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ash_1050]

GWS at $1.50 is overs at this point, not that you'd put the bet down until March

 

[tigertigertiger]

Geelong to make the 8, 1.8? Still think they’ll make it just don’t see them going to a grand final

 

[cznsnowy91]

Gold coast are $1.40 for least wins. Really difficult to see them winning more games than Carlton, who i'd expect to have a slightly better 2019 (They had a terrible year but showed some good signs here and there). St Kilda are third favourites for least wins but still have a much better list than Gold coast. Thoughts?

 

[The GOAT]

Gold coast are $1.40 for least wins. Really difficult to see them winning more games than Carlton, who i'd expect to have a slightly better 2019 (They had a terrible year but showed some good signs here and there). St Kilda are third favourites for least wins but still have a much better list than Gold coast. Thoughts?

It should win but a year is a long time to wait for a $1.40 shot.

 

[Keystone agony]

Zac Merrett to win the brownlow is the best bet you will find at odds of 67-1 or higher. Make sure you have a cash out option and you wont lose if you take it when odds come in during year.

 

[tigertigertiger]

Zac Merrett to win the brownlow is the best bet you will find at odds of 67-1 or higher. Make sure you have a cash out option and you wont lose if you take it when odds come in during year.

where do you get those odds? best odds I'm finding for that is 51-1

 

[footy75]

Adelaide 1.80 fantastic

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

1.66/1.70 now

They got a good draw too.

 

[footy75]

Geelong to make the 8, 1.8? Still think they’ll make it just don’t see them going to a grand final

me too

 

[footy75]

GWS at $1.50 is overs at this point, not that you'd put the bet down until March

can't trust those flaky bastardsss

 

[footy75]

SportsBet have dropped some futures and I reckon there’s some good early value going on

To Make The Top 8:

Essendon $1.90

essendon 1.60 now

 

[Socrates2]

I like Freo to make the 8 . Betfair just closed my account even though I'm in front since I opened my account 10 years ago.Also I'm $600 in front over the last month.I suspect it's because i ring up for live betting as lot, often for small bets on under/over goals in soccer.I also took a 24hours time out yesterday, which i do occassionally if I've got important stuff to do.Do u think it's because of the live calls or the time out? I rang up and all they said was 'it's a business decision ' about 15 times.Apparantly I can appeal to the Northern territory racing commission but it is unlikely to be overturned.What's up with that.??

 

[iluvparis]

Betfair limiting your account eh?

 

[Socrates2]

Betfair limiting your account eh?

No they have closed it forever and I'm not sure why.

 

[Sabbathen]

No they have closed it forever and I'm not sure why.

Either they suspect you are doing something dodgy, in which case you should follow it up and set the record straight if you are not. Or you are doing/have done something dodgy and they have caught you out.

They make money off people winning, it’s not a sensible business decision to completely close your account otherwise. Do you want to have another go at explaining why you think your account has really been closed?

 

[Lensen]

betfair known exchange limiters on here IMO

 

[Socrates2]

Either they suspect you are doing something dodgy, in which case you should follow it up and set the record straight if you are not. Or you are doing/have done something dodgy and they have caught you out.

They make money off people winning, it’s not a sensible business decision to completely close your account otherwise. Do you want to have another go at explaining why you think your account has really been closed?

There's nothing dodgy, I'm not sure how you can do something dodgy anyway. The guy kept saying 'it's a business decision I can't say anymore '. I suspect it may be related to ringing up to make small live bets, which clogs up their phone lines.I can make up to ten live bets a day.My account has been open for ten years without incident.I've appealed to the Northern Territory Racing commission but I'm not confident at all.There is no other possible reason I can think of.Thanks for the feedback.

 

[Sabbathen]

There's nothing dodgy, I'm not sure how you can do something dodgy anyway. The guy kept saying 'it's a business decision I can't say anymore '. I suspect it may be related to ringing up to make small live bets, which clogs up their phone lines.I can make up to ten live bets a day.My account has been open for ten years without incident.I've appealed to the Northern Territory Racing commission but I'm not confident at all.There is no other possible reason I can think of.Thanks for the feedback.

Are you sure “ringing up to place live bets” isn’t actually “using VPN to illegally place live bets”?
For what it’s worth, if you tell Betfair you are lodging a complaint with the NT racing commission because you want to know why and they still won’t give you an answer, you can make a subject data access request. Legally they have to supply you with data they have collected, chat and phone logs, full betting statements etc. Sometimes in this you will find a reason why a bookmaker has limited/closed your account.

 

[Socrates2]

Ch

Are you sure “ringing up to place live bets” isn’t actually “using VPN to illegally place live bets”?
For what it’s worth, if you tell Betfair you are lodging a complaint with the NT racing commission because you want to know why and they still won’t give you an answer, you can make a subject data access request. Legally they have to supply you with data they have collected, chat and phone logs, full betting statements etc. Sometimes in this you will find a reason why a bookmaker has limited/closed your account.

Cheers ,thanks for the advice im not using VPN or anything. I'm thinking it's something to do with the fact I'll ring up for example and lay under 5.5 goals in a live soccer game for $66@ $1.14.That only costs me about $11.The minimum bet is $20 so maybe they think I'm trying to get around the minimum bet by laying instead of backing.

 

[Socrates2]

What's the best value betting site besides Betfair? I take it they all take 10-15%

 

[Socrates2]

SportsBet have dropped some futures and I reckon there’s some good early value going on

To Make The Top 8:
Adelaide $1.80
Essendon $1.90
GWS Giants $1.50
North Melbourne $2.25
Brisbane $6

Miss The Top 8:
Geelong $1.90
Port Adelaide $1.70
Sydney $2
Collingwood $3.50

Out of those odds I would be wary backing Geelong to miss the eight, as they have 9 home games in Geelong.North Melbourne to make the eight at $2.25 is terrible value.

 

[Keystone agony]

Out of those odds I would be wary backing Geelong to miss the eight, as they have 9 home games in Geelong.North Melbourne to make the eight at $2.25 is terrible value.

Pretty sure Geelong had 9 home games this year aswell.

I dont see the point betting on such low odds so far out from result

 

[Tomgeezer]

Ch

Cheers ,thanks for the advice im not using VPN or anything. I'm thinking it's something to do with the fact I'll ring up for example and lay under 5.5 goals in a live soccer game for $66@ $1.14.That only costs me about $11.The minimum bet is $20 so maybe they think I'm trying to get around the minimum bet by laying instead of backing.

Do you trade their horse racing markets? Betfair called me a couple of years ago as I was costing them money by trading on NSW racing. I understood their stance as the turnover tax for NSW and some other states is high. The commission they made off me didn't cover the tax I incurred them. They said if it continued I could lose the use of my Aust wallet (back when you used the Aust and UK wallets). They were quite reasonable on the phone and I now limit my trading to Vic racing.

I'm not aware of what tax they pay on soccer matches. Have they seriously not advised you why they have closed it? I would've thought they'd be happy to have the turnover on those markets as European matches are normally high-liquid anyway.