AFL AFL Futures 2019

[Red Dog Styles]

JEZZA, beers on me boys

Congrats, long wait, hard finish, easy money!

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[BuddysBiggestFan]

Took Brown at 13’s earlier in the year. Didn’t cash out....

Took Brown at 3’s last week. Didn’t cash out.....

Idiot

 

[the_big_sav]

tab have a market for norm smith medal

ive got rich vs geel gf so my early thoughts are

gaz @ $26
prestia @ $26
vlaustin @ $67

 

[iluvparis]

tab have a market for norm smith medal

ive got rich vs geel gf so my early thoughts are

gaz @ $26
prestia @ $26
vlaustin @ $67

Vlastuin would barely be a 100/1 shot if he even gets named on the day

 

[Red Dog Styles]

tab have a market for norm smith medal

ive got rich vs geel gf so my early thoughts are

gaz @ $26
prestia @ $26
vlaustin @ $67

Dusty?
If he touches it 30 times the media award givers will be salivating. And rightly so because he's a star. Hedge with Danger, same reason.

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[the_big_sav]

Dusty?
If he touches it 30 times the media award givers will be salivating. And rightly so because he's a star. Hedge with Danger, same reason.

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

was looking for more value picks then just fav and 2nd fav haha

 

[Red Dog Styles]

was looking for more value picks then just fav and 2nd fav haha

Winning = value

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[the_big_sav]

Winning = value

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thats not the punting board i know haha

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Market's up for the Freo head job on Sportsbet

Sumich 1.80
Longmuir 2.25

Thoughts?

Any more thoughts on this? Seems sportsbet swapped their favorite around but nothing substantial. You wouldn't think they would leave coach vacant too long

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[JuniorWatch]

Any more thoughts on this? Seems sportsbet swapped their favorite around but nothing substantial. You wouldn't think they would leave coach vacant too long

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Gotta be between one of these:
Clive Waterhouse $41
Aaron Sandilands $41
Hayden Ballantyne $41
Michael Barlow $41
Tendai Mzungu $41

They have a bit of fun with these markets don't they

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Gotta be between one of these:
Clive Waterhouse $41
Aaron Sandilands $41
Hayden Ballantyne $41
Michael Barlow $41
Tendai Mzungu $41

They have a bit of fun with these markets don't they

I guess with Longmuir, due to being with Collingwood until season finishes, this could be drawn out
Good value at beteasy @1.80 but would tie up afl finals cash

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[AFDogs]

West Coast paying $10 to win the Premiership on SB.

Surely I'm not the only one salivating over this? I still think they're the favourites.

 

[Jugada]

Clearly a team who didn't finish top 4 is not the favourite. $10 seems pretty fair for a team who will likely start underdogs in 3 matches if they happen to make it

 

[burge13]

They'll have to go interstate 3 weeks straight to do it. Sitting on a plane shouldn't be that difficult but players complain about it for a reason

Possibly best side but toughest run home from here. Should cruise passed the bombers though so if you like $10 probably worth jumping on now. Won't get better

I have them playing the Pies, then Brisbane in the prelim. Lots of travel

 

[freo_leo29]

West Coast paying $10 to win the Premiership on SB.

Surely I'm not the only one salivating over this? I still think they're the favourites.

I'm on them

Had them start of finals last year too, they didn't let me down

 

[iluvparis]

I'm on them

Had them start of finals last year too, they didn't let me down

Sure they didn't

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Didn’t cash on Tim Kelly @ $51.

Didn’t cash out on Brown @ $13.

What are my best options with this bet?

 

[Sausage Legs]

Didn’t cash on Tim Kelly @ $51.

Didn’t cash out on Brown @ $13.

What are my best options with this bet?

View attachment 739611

Its obviously all about this week. U are a 1 in 4 shot of having a live ticket next week as Bris and Dogs both have to win to have a pulse.
If Bris lose this week they would then play Dogs (if they win) which would eventually dead end ur bet.
Too many variables to start hedging in my opinion so I'd be letting it ride this week and reconsider later.
I personally like the Lions and Dogs this week, but again that multi is paying 4s.
All this means nothing if u think 274 is a lot of money that u want to cash out tho, but I reckon u'd be looking at 800-1000 cashout if u sneak thru this week.

 

[iluvparis]

Yes on that basis you need to ask yourself are you happy having a $275 bet on the Dogs/Lions to both win this week

 

[iluvparis]

I was going to have a nibble on the Brisbane/Richmond GF quinella given they play each other week thinking it would be a decent price but it turns out it's the bookies fave outcome!

 

[GROTTO]

I was going to have a nibble on the Brisbane/Richmond GF quinella given they play each other week thinking it would be a decent price but it turns out it's the bookies fave outcome!

Before the bye you have to wonder what kind of great odds that quinella would have been.

Even before the Lions played the Cats at the GABBA (and Tigers v Eagles) that quinella would have been still at decent odds as well.

 

[GROTTO]

Didn’t cash on Tim Kelly @ $51.

Didn’t cash out on Brown @ $13.

What are my best options with this bet?

View attachment 739611

Its obviously all about this week. U are a 1 in 4 shot of having a live ticket next week as Bris and Dogs both have to win to have a pulse.
If Bris lose this week they would then play Dogs (if they win) which would eventually dead end ur bet.
Too many variables to start hedging in my opinion so I'd be letting it ride this week and reconsider later.
I personally like the Lions and Dogs this week, but again that multi is paying 4s.
All this means nothing if u think 274 is a lot of money that u want to cash out tho, but I reckon u'd be looking at 800-1000 cashout if u sneak thru this week.

Yes on that basis you need to ask yourself are you happy having a $275 bet on the Dogs/Lions to both win this week

Im not aware of your unit size which is the main issue here if this is a small win for you or a big one, but as the other two posters mentioned consider cashing out:

If youre down for the year and cashing out is going to put you ahead, then do it. If your up and can handle the loss then let it ride out.

 

[Checkered]

Didn’t cash on Tim Kelly @ $51.

Didn’t cash out on Brown @ $13.

What are my best options with this bet?

View attachment 739611

I'm taking that every day of the week. Chances of both results going your way is very slim.

 

[Oraaaaazio]

I'm taking that every day of the week. Chances of both results going your way is very slim.

This week needs both Dogs (~$1.80) & Lions (~$2.25) to win? $4 proposition so not that slim

 

[CantThinkOfName]

Didn’t cash on Tim Kelly @ $51.

Didn’t cash out on Brown @ $13.

What are my best options with this bet?

View attachment 739611

Grab a notepad kids and listen up.
You have to absolutely cash out as you have stumbled across the flaw in the cash out offer formula. When they calculate your cash out offer the flaw in the system is that they use the odds they are offering on the market as the probability($23 = 4.3% chance of happening) of the event winning instead of the actual probability of the event winning (which is about $60 odds = 1.7%). So right now if you dont cash out and the bet wins you get $10k, but you could really get $16k if you cash out and place it on all the events that need to get up in order for your bet to win. Example:
Cash out the $275 and place it on a multi of brisbane and bulldogs to win @$4 = return of $1100
Place that $1100 on the bulldogs in the semi at approx $2.50 = return of 2750
Placed that $2750 on a multi of brisbane and bulldogs to win the prelim (brisbane $2, wb $3 = $6 odds) = $16.5k

Now obviously im just guessing what odds each team will open at but I think the above odds are realistic-ish.

So if you dont want to risk it all you could cash out the $275, pocket $110 of it (guaranteed $100 profit) then place the remaining $165 on the steps above which would get a return of $10k anyway so you wont be kicking yourself if it gets up.

Hope that makes sense