AFL AFL Futures 2021

[NonPhixion]

Well footy season is fast approaching and we needed a new thread for this years Futures bets. I think there is great value to be found within futures bets and it also adds a bit of interest each round, almost like watching an investment grow (or explode into flames). The 1 tip i have is to be careful of those sneaky 'To make All-Australian' markets, as its just a waste of time for non-mids. Taking Papley $10 last year killed me, felt robbed...
Anyway not too many markets out there atm but i have been informed by SB that more markets will be out next week. Personally i dont like taking premiership bets pre-season, i think there is a very good chance that you can get as good if not better odds much later into the season.
My bets at the present:
1U Harry McKay

10

Harry Mckay

Age

23

Ht

204cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.9

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

2.4

2star

M

5.5

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.4

5star

D

6.6

1star

K

4.6

2star

HB

2.0

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

1.4

2star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.8

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.4

4star

T

0.8

3star

G

2.0

5star

Coleman $34 -B365: Think he will have a breakout season, looks in great shape and from reports has had a very good off-season. With question marks on Curnow and the rest of the forward line being pretty average i think a lot rests on his shoulder this year, but i think he is more than capable of taking that on and kicking 50+ goals. The concern is whether Carlton will be good enough this year to give him enough opportunities, But if he stays fit/ on the park i think this is well over the odds.
2U Richmond & Geelong Top 4, GWS & WC Top 8 $6.65 -TAB

Also can i call upon my fellow punters here to call up SB and request some futures markets. I really wanted them to put up Most contested marks/Most clearances etc but they didn't seem interested, perhaps with a higher volume of requests they may be more inclined. Anyway Best of Luck to all punters this year.

 

[iluvparis]

They have dead set left a zero off that price for McKay to win the Coleman.

 

[GROTTO]

I must admit seeing this thread open has got me all hot and bothered.

I enjoyed the ride on here and the weekly threads.

I still cant forgive JK for getting an injury in that Roos game late in the season. Glory be. Of all the luck.

 

[GROTTO]

Well footy season is fast approaching and we needed a new thread for this years Futures bets. I think there is great value to be found within futures bets and it also adds a bit of interest each round, almost like watching an investment grow (or explode into flames). The 1 tip i have is to be careful of those sneaky 'To make All-Australian' markets, as its just a waste of time for non-mids. Taking Papley $10 last year killed me, felt robbed...
Anyway not too many markets out there atm but i have been informed by SB that more markets will be out next week. Personally i dont like taking premiership bets pre-season, i think there is a very good chance that you can get as good if not better odds much later into the season.
My bets at the present:
1U Harry McKay Coleman $34 -B365: Think he will have a breakout season, looks in great shape and from reports has had a very good off-season. With question marks on Curnow and the rest of the forward line being pretty average i think a lot rests on his shoulder this year, but i think he is more than capable of taking that on and kicking 50+ goals. The concern is whether Carlton will be good enough this year to give him enough opportunities, But if he stays fit/ on the park i think this is well over the odds.
2U Richmond & Geelong Top 4, GWS & WC Top 8 $6.65 -TAB

Also can i call upon my fellow punters here to call up SB and request some futures markets. I really wanted them to put up Most contested marks/Most clearances etc but they didn't seem interested, perhaps with a higher volume of requests they may be more inclined. Anyway Best of Luck to all punters this year.

It seems that usual suspects took up the 1st, 2nd and 3rd places despite a few smaller forwards, bolting away early.

Tabs from Freo may be ok esp if Freo are on the rise.

Tomahawk couldnt miss a goal if he tried during the H&A season last year.

Thats why I went big on him in that first final v Port for AGS in my multi's.

I almost won, he almost kicked a goal just needed one more point, kicked 0.5.

 

[NYRB]

Freo come in a bit to make top 8, in from $4.00 to $3.75 in the space of 24 hours.

 

[freo_leo29]

I got Taberner @251 last year for coleman before the season, those are the odds I would be wanting for McKay tbh

Luke Ryan @11 last year was decent too but I don't see anyone from Freo having that huge breakout year, Pearce is the only possible new AA but he won't stay fit tbh

 

[NYRB]

TAB allowing multis for the season in futures.

Not sure if this price appeals but Freo to make The 8 and West Coast to miss the 8? Thats paying $12.18

 

[TryAnHit]

Am also on McKay coleman. Was 2nd goals after the bye last year. Finally had a pre season. Blues improving. All the other top fwds in the market are ageing.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Just jump on Hawkins once his odds blow out after a slow start.

 

[NonPhixion]

They have dead set left a zero off that price for McKay to win the Coleman.

Let me know when you will be putting up that $340 back price on Betfair. I don’t want anybody taking it first

 

[GROTTO]

Just jump on Hawkins once his odds blow out after a slow start.

It wouldnt surprise me to see the Cats share their goals around in 2021, with Jezza and even Paddy.

 

[iluvparis]

Let me know when you will be putting up that $340 back price on Betfair. I don’t want anybody taking it first

Who was the last player to win the Coleman having never previously kicked 30 goals in a season?

 

[GROTTO]

Who was the last player to win the Coleman having never previously kicked 30 goals in a season?

Hmmm sounds very early for me to be doing Fun Facts with Grotto.

In 1992, Modra kicked a career high of 21 goals.

In 1993, he kicked a lazy 129 goals, but didnt win the Coleman. That went to Ablett with 124. (before Finals)

 

[iluvparis]

Hmmm sounds very early for me to be doing Fun Facts with Grotto.

In 1992, Modra kicked a career high of 21 goals.

In 1993, he kicked a lazy 129 goals, but didnt win the Coleman. That went to Ablett with 124. (before Finals)

Exactly - its won by a proven player.

 

[GROTTO]

Exactly - its won by a proven player.

I only remember this because its Mods.

Cummings is probably the closest, kicked 32 the year before and won the Coleman the following year.

Neitz with 38 and won it the following.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Hard to compare footy from an area of constant inside 50s to now. Back then the only way they came out the i50 was after a goal.
No offence NP, especially because you are always so on point, but I just cant understand the McKay bet. Even someone like Daniher I could see but thats also a silly bet

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jugada]

I only remember this because its Mods.

Cummings is probably the closest, kicked 32 the year before and won the Coleman the following year.

Neitz with 38 and won it the following.

Those players were already well proven with multiple 30+, 40+, 50+ and 70+ goal seasons. Completely different

 

[TryAnHit]

Hard to compare footy from an area of constant inside 50s to now. Back then the only way they came out the i50 was after a goal.
No offence NP, especially because you are always so on point, but I just cant understand the McKay bet. Even someone like Daniher I could see but thats also a silly bet

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Daniher is also 10$ vs the 33$ on McKay

 

[ash_1050]

In 1992, Modra kicked a career high of 21 goals.

In 1993, he kicked a lazy 129 goals, but didnt win the Coleman. That went to Ablett with 124. (before Finals)

What odds can I get on McKay u/o 129.5 goals this season?

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Futures are really hard to nail IMO, but you can't really rubbish anyone's picks because no one really knows what's going to happen at the end of the day.

Gehrig won it in 2004 after kicking pretty much half of the winner's tally the previous year (55 vs 93); and then went on to kick 103 in the following year in a true break out year, so players can definitely shoot up and have exponential growth over the course of one season.

McKay's at that age now where he should be for sure finishing in the top 10, but ideally finishing in or around the top 5; and as someone said, he was the second highest goal scorer in the second half of the season, and playing in a team expected to make a meaningful improvement upon their season last year, it doesn't sound like the worst pick, probably happens more than 1 in 34 times...

I personally won't be taking it, but it was somewhat of interest to me when I was perusing, think the value's with Dixon, but kinda annoying people rubbishing people's future picks, when the strike rate of people commenting with them is probably well and truly in the negatives, such is the volatility and speculative nature of them.

 

[Jugada]

It happens far far less than 1 in 34 times. Every team every year has at least one of those kids coming through and for every Jack Riewoldt type there are countless plodders who do nothing for years. I don't mind taking a swing at a speculative pick but $34 is gross unders still. You would want to be getting triple figures given his current output and historical trends

 

[GROTTO]

What odds can I get on McKay u/o 129.5 goals this season?

With the scoring in the AFL at the moment, Im not even sure Carlton may even kick that many goals in 2021.

 

[GROTTO]

Those players were already well proven with multiple 30+, 40+, 50+ and 70+ goal seasons. Completely different

Its futile to even make comparisons given the changes in the game. For starters, the Coleman medalist has been won by 7 of the last 10 times by players kicking under 70 goals which was not a regular occurrence since the 1940s.

I wasnt challenging iluvparis in fact, I do agree with him. I just raised some observations.

The fact that the Coleman has generally been won by well established forwards over the last 10 years in the modern game is proof enough.

 

[Jugada]

Its futile to even make comparisons given the changes in the game. For starters, the Coleman medalist has been won by 7 of the last 10 times by players kicking under 70 goals which was not a regular occurrence since the 1940s.

I wasnt challenging iluvparis in fact, I do agree with him. I just raised some observations.

The fact that the Coleman has generally been won by well established forwards over the last 10 years in the modern game is proof enough.

Yeah that's fine, i was just pointing out the players you posted didn't have any similarities to Mackay this year on what Paris questioned

 

[NYRB]

The way the game has been played the last few years, 65 goals may be enough to snag the Coleman medal. Not sure if the new rule changes will make the game a higher scoring game.