AFL AFL Futures 2021

[54Dogs]

This thread brings back memories of my year 12 maths teacher Mr Puggioni who was so bad 60 percent of his students failed the HSC maths exam and had to repeat year 12

Biorhythm concerns for the following year?

 

[HeathySure]

Biorhythm concerns for the following year?

haha no i think Mr Puggioni was let go and the others passed with flying colors

 

[Ohh Ok]

 

[pendlebury_10]

Expected to come here to find an all time boast re: Petracca - now not sure whether to be surprised or concerned.

 

[burge13]

Im more disappointed it seems to be over

 

[The_Steadier]

Expected to come here to find an all time boast re: Petracca - now not sure whether to be surprised or concerned.

Quote below lies the answer.
I had my victory weeks ago when it was demonstrated the theory holds up to scrutiny.
The actual NS result was of little interest to me, other than adding an extra data point as to whether the potential edge I've been exploring does in fact exist.

Yet another NS win in 2021 by a star (top 2/3 player) in a winning side, adds another little bit of weight towards affirming the existence of my potential edge.

I'm now looking forward to, pre-prelims 2022, where I'll be putting a few pennies on the top 3 stars of my favoured flag fancy instead of betting on that team for the flag.

Because the data continues to suggest that star players of winning GF teams win the NS a lot more often than the bookmakers account for when setting their NS markets.

Once again you guys have it completely ass about and are completely misguided.

The actual Norm Smith result is of little interest to me at this point.

Why?
I've been advocating a THEORY that:

If:
before a prelim, the 'flag win' odds for a team aren't too high

Then:
It is a viable alternative option (and potentially more profitable) to back 3 of the teams best players for Norm Smith before the prelim (with a split stake that equals the same as you would have placed on the 'flag win' bet.)

This theory is predicated on a potential edge which I think may exist; where based on a look at the past Norm Smith medal winners- star mids of GF winning teams (ie top 2 in each team) win the NS a high percentage of the time.

My potential edge is that bookies don't really account for this when setting NS markets, and only price star mids (ie top 2 mids in a team) slightly shorter than the rest of the team.


Paris and Jug have tried and failed in the futures thread to say that this theory doesn't stack up mathematically against just betting on a flag win before a prelim.

They have also tried and failed to say that the theory doesn't stack up because it supposedly takes on more risk for no or minimal extra reward.

(I wont bore all in here with the details- but for any sadists interested in seeing how these failures occurred, head over to the futures thread.)


Paris and Jug:
I've already had my victory, because the theory stacks up mathematically and if you believe my edge exists- the result from the overall risk/reward profile is equivalent (or even better) than betting on a flag win before a prelim.


The only thing I'm now interested in is seeing if more evidence will appear to show my potential edge actually exists.
(Again, this potential edge simply is: star players win the NS a disproportiantely high amount of times; which the bookies only partially account for when setting NS market prices)

A NS win by any of oliver, petracca, macrae or bont will go a long way to helping confirm or deny the existence of my potential edge.

That's the bit I'm interested in.

 

[pendlebury_10]

Potential edge lol

 

[The_Steadier]

Potential edge lol

Gravity is still, and always will be, a theory because it cannot conclusively be demonstrated to apply everywhere, all the time.

Yet we put man on the moon using it... so it's probably true.

I say potential edge out of an abundance of caution because it is something than can never be conclusively proven one way or another.

In order for my potential edge to stack up; based on what odds bookies set for them in NS markets- top 3 star players from winning grand teams need to win the NS at least 1 in 4 times.

The NS winners list data we have today tells us that happens, that was further affirmed last week.

So yes it's a potential edge, because all punting edges are potential edges.
The data we have to date says it works.