AFL AFL Futures 2021

[GROTTO]

The way the game has been played the last few years, 65 goals may be enough to snag the Coleman medal. Not sure if the new rule changes will make the game a higher scoring game.

True, but the usual suspects will be always up and about around that mark.

 

[NonPhixion]

Hard to compare footy from an area of constant inside 50s to now. Back then the only way they came out the i50 was after a goal.
No offence NP, especially because you are always so on point, but I just cant understand the McKay bet. Even someone like Daniher I could see but thats also a silly bet

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Its good to have a discussion, it wouldn't be a true forum if we all agreed with each other. I post lots of bets around here and realise some of them will be unpopular. But ill dig deeper and share my rationale a bit more as to why i like McKay at those odds.
Straight off the bat after shopping around i have noted that McKay is $26 at every other bookie, so $34 at B365 is the biggest discrepancy across bookies out of any player. This in itself is almost enough for me conclude there is some value.
Now to the stats.. If you are just looking at his goal tally of 21 then obviously its not going to read well. However he only played 13 games so if you take his avg of 1.61 goals per game this puts him inside the top 10. Tom Hawkins dominated last year and was a clear winner on 49, kennedy & Dixon tied in 2nd on 34 & Jack Reiwoldt finished 3rd on 33 at an average of 1.57 goals per game after playing every game. Moreover the majority of McKay's goals came in the last 7 games of the season when he came back into the team fit and healthy, which is a sign to me that he can carry that improvement into next season.
Im a big fan of Marks I50 stats because generally if a forward can get the ball in this position they are within goal range. Again Hawkins completely dominated with 75 Marks I50 at an average of 3.57 a game. Riewoldt took 45 at an average of 2.14 a game. Kennedy took 44 at an average of 2.58 a game. McKay took 32 at an average of 2.46 a game.

Now lets look at the 10 players infront of McKay in the market that i see absolutely no value in any.
Lynch - probably the deserving favourite but $6 is about the right price imo.
Hawkins - $7.50 could be a touch of value given his season last year, but the inclusion of Cameron will take goals away from him. Can't have.
Dixon - $9 Had the best season of his life - could be in the mix again but i think the price is on the money
Cameron $9 - Unreliable, coming into the team of the reigning coleman medalist. Price is unders for me
J Kennedy $10 -Proven goal kicker, but coming into the last years of his career, is injury prone in his later years and just can't trust him to play a full season. Price is right.
B.Brown $13 - Absolute joke of a price, already got a bad knee, should be McKay's odds of $34.
Darling $15 - I think he could be a little value here, and i actually might take some action on him. Kennedy could be in and out and Darling has been ultra reliable, still has good years left. So value here
C.Cameron $16 - Priced about right.

So there is a break down of the main chances and when you look at it there just isnt any value anywhere. I look at McKay at $34 and i personally would be pricing him at about $19. There is something very wrong when a bloke that has not played a single game yet (Ugle-Hagan) is the same price as McKay.


Another consideration is that both Riewoldt & Franklin who have won 7 of the last 12 Coleman medals combined had their best goal kicking year at the Age of 22 & 21 respectively. McKay is at that prime age of 23.

I think i have dribbled on, but thats my analysis of the market.

 

[GROTTO]

Its good to have a discussion, it wouldn't be a true forum if we all agreed with each other.

100% agree with this.

A person being right or wrong in their assessment is fine, its good to challenge and or have healthy discussions.

If you didnt mention McKay and if iluvparis didnt challenge you, I wouldnt have bothered to look into it more and make my own assessment.

I agree with both of you, if thats even possible.

 

[Jugada]

Yeah this place would be bland if it was all kumbaya patting each other on the back and agreeing with one another. So long as it's playing the ball the arguments back and forth are the most informative parts no matter what side you sit

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Its good to have a discussion, it wouldn't be a true forum if we all agreed with each other. I post lots of bets around here and realise some of them will be unpopular. But ill dig deeper and share my rationale a bit more as to why i like McKay at those odds.
Straight off the bat after shopping around i have noted that McKay is $26 at every other bookie, so $34 at B365 is the biggest discrepancy across bookies out of any player. This in itself is almost enough for me conclude there is some value.
Now to the stats.. If you are just looking at his goal tally of 21 then obviously its not going to read well. However he only played 13 games so if you take his avg of 1.61 goals per game this puts him inside the top 10. Tom Hawkins dominated last year and was a clear winner on 49, kennedy & Dixon tied in 2nd on 34 & Jack Reiwoldt finished 3rd on 33 at an average of 1.57 goals per game after playing every game. Moreover the majority of McKay's goals came in the last 7 games of the season when he came back into the team fit and healthy, which is a sign to me that he can carry that improvement into next season.
Im a big fan of Marks I50 stats because generally if a forward can get the ball in this position they are within goal range. Again Hawkins completely dominated with 75 Marks I50 at an average of 3.57 a game. Riewoldt took 45 at an average of 2.14 a game. Kennedy took 44 at an average of 2.58 a game. McKay took 32 at an average of 2.46 a game.

Now lets look at the 10 players infront of McKay in the market that i see absolutely no value in any.
Lynch - probably the deserving favourite but $6 is about the right price imo.
Hawkins - $7.50 could be a touch of value given his season last year, but the inclusion of Cameron will take goals away from him. Can't have.
Dixon - $9 Had the best season of his life - could be in the mix again but i think the price is on the money
Cameron $9 - Unreliable, coming into the team of the reigning coleman medalist. Price is unders for me
J Kennedy $10 -Proven goal kicker, but coming into the last years of his career, is injury prone in his later years and just can't trust him to play a full season. Price is right.
B.Brown $13 - Absolute joke of a price, already got a bad knee, should be McKay's odds of $34.
Darling $15 - I think he could be a little value here, and i actually might take some action on him. Kennedy could be in and out and Darling has been ultra reliable, still has good years left. So value here
C.Cameron $16 - Priced about right.

So there is a break down of the main chances and when you look at it there just isnt any value anywhere. I look at McKay at $34 and i personally would be pricing him at about $19. There is something very wrong when a bloke that has not played a single game yet (Ugle-Hagan) is the same price as McKay.


Another consideration is that both Riewoldt & Franklin who have won 7 of the last 12 Coleman medals combined had their best goal kicking year at the Age of 22 & 21 respectively. McKay is at that prime age of 23.

I think i have dribbled on, but thats my analysis of the market.

Ive come around. My response was nowhere near as researched as your assessment.
I might add him to my weekly goalkicker list.
Thanks for the stats

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Its good to have a discussion, it wouldn't be a true forum if we all agreed with each other. I post lots of bets around here and realise some of them will be unpopular. But ill dig deeper and share my rationale a bit more as to why i like McKay at those odds.
Straight off the bat after shopping around i have noted that McKay is $26 at every other bookie, so $34 at B365 is the biggest discrepancy across bookies out of any player. This in itself is almost enough for me conclude there is some value.
Now to the stats.. If you are just looking at his goal tally of 21 then obviously its not going to read well. However he only played 13 games so if you take his avg of 1.61 goals per game this puts him inside the top 10. Tom Hawkins dominated last year and was a clear winner on 49, kennedy & Dixon tied in 2nd on 34 & Jack Reiwoldt finished 3rd on 33 at an average of 1.57 goals per game after playing every game. Moreover the majority of McKay's goals came in the last 7 games of the season when he came back into the team fit and healthy, which is a sign to me that he can carry that improvement into next season.
Im a big fan of Marks I50 stats because generally if a forward can get the ball in this position they are within goal range. Again Hawkins completely dominated with 75 Marks I50 at an average of 3.57 a game. Riewoldt took 45 at an average of 2.14 a game. Kennedy took 44 at an average of 2.58 a game. McKay took 32 at an average of 2.46 a game.

Now lets look at the 10 players infront of McKay in the market that i see absolutely no value in any.
Lynch - probably the deserving favourite but $6 is about the right price imo.
Hawkins - $7.50 could be a touch of value given his season last year, but the inclusion of Cameron will take goals away from him. Can't have.
Dixon - $9 Had the best season of his life - could be in the mix again but i think the price is on the money
Cameron $9 - Unreliable, coming into the team of the reigning coleman medalist. Price is unders for me
J Kennedy $10 -Proven goal kicker, but coming into the last years of his career, is injury prone in his later years and just can't trust him to play a full season. Price is right.
B.Brown $13 - Absolute joke of a price, already got a bad knee, should be McKay's odds of $34.
Darling $15 - I think he could be a little value here, and i actually might take some action on him. Kennedy could be in and out and Darling has been ultra reliable, still has good years left. So value here
C.Cameron $16 - Priced about right.

So there is a break down of the main chances and when you look at it there just isnt any value anywhere. I look at McKay at $34 and i personally would be pricing him at about $19. There is something very wrong when a bloke that has not played a single game yet (Ugle-Hagan) is the same price as McKay.


Another consideration is that both Riewoldt & Franklin who have won 7 of the last 12 Coleman medals combined had their best goal kicking year at the Age of 22 & 21 respectively. McKay is at that prime age of 23.

I think i have dribbled on, but thats my analysis of the market.

Love that write up man, haha. Good work!

Other thing to consider imo, is that of the top 10 shortest priced faves for the Coleman, all but two of them share a teammate in that top 10 (Dixon and Brown being the exceptions).

Historically only 2 winners have shared a teammate in the eventual top 10 at the end of the year over the last 9 years (couldn't get the tallies for seasons before then), with the latest being Riewoldt in 2018 who had Caddy all the way out at 10th. This to me suggests a big correlation between bonafide forwards co-existing in the same forward line and stealing goals off one another.

This year we've seen arguably the two biggest threats in Cameron and Hawkins get paired together, and I think the likely result is neither of them taking it out provided both play a full season. Also Daniher who I like to have a good season, but he's also up against sharing a forward line with Cameron and Hipwood.

Getting back to the odds, once you get outside the top 10, you've got Franklin (perennially injured), De Goey (mooted to be moving into the midfield), Hipwood (sharing the forward line with Cameron & Daniher), and then you've got McKay, and I think he really stands out for this point. Doesn't have an impediment like the aforementioned 3, and as you said, young guy, lots of potential, probably the best young forward along with Max King as of right now, and playing in a team mooted to move up the ladder and enjoy more scoring opportunities.

No doubt there's value at $34, I don't see it happening as for what the other people kinda said with him still needing to be seasoned some more. This is a guy with the worst case of the yips in the comp for the longest time, and I can only imagine how he'd be going mentally towards the tail end of the season, looking to close out a win for the Coleman, etc.

But yeah, there's def some value there. I like Dixon for those reasons. Just came runner up. Take Hawkins out of the equation. Port should still be a dominant team. Perhaps he can go one better now. Always rated him tremendously, and hopefully he can have his time in the sun for his sake and mine!

Of course if one of those top 10 guys gets injured it all goes out the window, but I still like Charlie to give it a real shake regardless.

 

[5 Bucks]

Naughton at $41 (TAB) is more tempting than McKay I reckon.

Preseason form means very little but he had 24 touches and kicked 7 in the intraclub.

Can take a contested grab, will get plenty of supply and English playing forward will limit the ability to double team him. Just needs to stay fit.

 

[NYRB]

just noticed tonight that TAB have disallowed multi for teams to make 8, make top 4, miss top 8 etc

 

[GROTTO]

Naughton at $41 (TAB) is more tempting than McKay I reckon.

Preseason form means very little but he had 24 touches and kicked 7 in the intraclub.

Can take a contested grab, will get plenty of supply and English playing forward will limit the ability to double team him. Just needs to stay fit.

Do you know who played on him? Was it Keath?

 

[GROTTO]

just noticed tonight that TAB have disallowed multi for teams to make 8, make top 4, miss top 8 etc

SB allow it. I have no idea how much you can get on it though.

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Edit: It's actually 2 of the 9 winners have shared a teammate in the top 10 not 3 of 9, and then 11 other times that there have been teammates sharing a spot with each other in the top 10.

For me that it is statistically significant. 11 times out of 13 two teammates have been in the top 10 together with neither winning it, and only 2 times out of 13 has one of those players sharing a teammate actually been able to win.

When you consider that 8 of the top 10 players in the Coleman odds are sharing a teammate, I think it definitely is something to consider, because going off past history, at least half of those players are not a realistic chance of winning.

So yeah, a decent edge there if you're picking a standalone forward from a club who has no other competition, and another thing to consider when looking at McKay as he's going to be on his own for most of the year, until Curnow comes back - if he does.

 

[benji21]

Will Judge on the next few games, but game seems to have opened up a little on the outside with the new rules which will enable teams to get the ball in the hands of better users more often. Been thinking who in the elite end will benefit most from this, Thinking the Bont might be a good play for Brownlow. Not sure what price as its down but would say anything above the 11-12 dollar mark might be big value if this ends up a trend. The other would be Dusty but he is a little short I would think.

 

[Jugada]

Will Judge on the next few games, but game seems to have opened up a little on the outside with the new rules which will enable teams to get the ball in the hands of better users more often. Been thinking who in the elite end will benefit most from this, Thinking the Bont might be a good play for Brownlow. Not sure what price as its down but would say anything above the 11-12 dollar mark might be big value if this ends up a trend. The other would be Dusty but he is a little short I would think.

I Don't bother watching the praccies but id imagine they are always more open on the outside? Would be waiting for the real stuff for a proper analysis

 

[benji21]

I Don't bother watching the praccies but id imagine they are always more open on the outside? Would be waiting for the real stuff for a proper analysis

That's fair, I do think It'll depend on the team. Saints and Carlton like to play on a bit. But I'm not going off scoring I was going off watching the game, The "stand" enabled players to step around and drill the kick or hand pass to the HB without the man on the mark positioning to cover both.
Teams to look out for will be Saints, Carlton, Dogs, Essendon if they go back to their fast play and maybe Lions.

 

[NYRB]

Sportsbet.io crypto betting odds for Top 8

 

[chrisdon16]

Saints to make the 8 @ 1.91 & Norf least wins $2.25 seem good odds. Gold coast least wins seemed good odds last season though

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

Anyone know if you can get top 3 rising star anywhere?

 

[anabac]

Saints to make the 8 @ 1.91 & Norf least wins $2.25 seem good odds. Gold coast least wins seemed good odds last season though

Think those odds should be reversed. North are morals for the spoon and anything over $2 is a gift, but no way I'm taking odds-on for the Saints to make the 8.

 

[Jugada]

Looking forward to fading whatever the biggest go is after the practice matches

 

[Hamingja]

Now lets look at the 10 players infront of McKay in the market that i see absolutely no value in any.
Lynch - probably the deserving favourite but $6 is about the right price imo.
Hawkins - $7.50 could be a touch of value given his season last year, but the inclusion of Cameron will take goals away from him. Can't have.
Dixon - $9 Had the best season of his life - could be in the mix again but i think the price is on the money
Cameron $9 - Unreliable, coming into the team of the reigning coleman medalist. Price is unders for me
J Kennedy $10 -Proven goal kicker, but coming into the last years of his career, is injury prone in his later years and just can't trust him to play a full season. Price is right.
B.Brown $13 - Absolute joke of a price, already got a bad knee, should be McKay's odds of $34.
Darling $15 - I think he could be a little value here, and i actually might take some action on him. Kennedy could be in and out and Darling has been ultra reliable, still has good years left. So value here
C.Cameron $16 - Priced about right.

So there is a break down of the main chances and when you look at it there just isnt any value anywhere. I look at McKay at $34 and i personally would be pricing him at about $19. There is something very wrong when a bloke that has not played a single game yet (Ugle-Hagan) is the same price as McKay.

If they both play a full season then hard to see Hawkins kicking more than Cameron IMO. Cameron is hungry and Hawkins is selfless. If I was doing the odds I'd have them the other way around.

Lynch and Cameron would be the only two I could back personally. Cameron and Hawkins will share goals but if 60ish is enough to win the coleman then Cameron can still do that.

If someone like McKay got on a bit of a roll teams would double and triple team him and he is not getting a kick.

 

[5 Bucks]

Saints to make the 8 @ 1.91 & Norf least wins $2.25 seem good odds. Gold coast least wins seemed good odds last season though

BBrown barely played last season, so in reality they've lost Higgins and gained Stephenson and Corr from last season. Break even at the least.

The Crows were awful for 99% of last season. They've lost Crouch and Hartigan and gained Hately. Break even at the very best but most likely a loss. A fit Sloane will help but they're no certainty to be any better this season, just because they had a couple of not terrible performances to end 2020.

 

[Jugada]

BBrown barely played last season, so in reality they've lost Higgins and gained Stephenson and Corr from last season. Break even at the least.

The Crows were awful for 99% of last season. They've lost Crouch and Hartigan and gained Hately. Break even at the very best but most likely a loss. A fit Sloane will help but they're no certainty to be any better this season, just because they had a couple of not terrible performances to end 2020.

That's definitely a net loss for the Crows. Hately is not going to have near the impact of Crouch this season

I'm hoping North keeping stinking it up in the praccies and might get the Crows to drift a little bit

 

[GROTTO]

The Crows were awful for 99% of last season.

As bad as the Crows were last year, they "only" won the spoon on percentage. North really rolled over towards the end of the year.

I can see North tanking all the way to Pick 1 this year.

As much as I would love for the Crows to get Pick 1 in 2021, I think North will beat them to it.

Crows final game in 2021 is v North at AO.

 

[Jugada]

Crows got kissed on the dick by Covid Comp last year. They had 8 home games and 5 neutral matches during hub time. North had 1 home, 1 away and the rest neutral. Bombers had 0 home, 3.5 Away and the rest neutral. Hawks had 0 home, 4 away and the rest neutral.

Hub life would have been taking it's toll mentally towards the end of the season too which makes me put even less stock into the Crows knocking up a few wins at home against the teams who had spent the whole year on the road and had nothing to play for.

 

[iluvparis]

Crows got kissed on the dick by Covid Comp last year. They had 8 home games and 5 neutral matches during hub time. North had 1 home, 1 away and the rest neutral. Bombers had 0 home, 3.5 Away and the rest neutral. Hawks had 0 home, 4 away and the rest neutral.

Hub life would have been taking it's toll mentally towards the end of the season too which makes me put even less stock into the Crows knocking up a few wins at home against the teams who had spent the whole year on the road and had nothing to play for.

Plus the crows are $5 and North even money - Adelaide an obvious bet in this market.