AFL Futures

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NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,597
4,393
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Only a month away from footy & I cant wait to make some coin on it. Thought id get the ball rolling here with a futures thread.
on a couple of spot fires already:
1U Tom Papley to make AA $10 - BE
1U Zac Williams to make AA $8.50 - BE
1U Ben King to win Coleman $251 - SB

Will also have a play at Cripps for brownlow but ill wait a bit longer. Obviously take a bit of a risk playing futures a few weeks in advance but i like to get in nice and early where i think the value is there.
lets harvest some crops
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,923
1,293
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Dont hate Brad Shep at 8s, Luke Ryan 15s and Wingard forward at 10s. Guessing Wingard plays more forward with Titch back, O'Meara and Worpel fit.
I'm pretty sure Wingard is going to have a gun season. He was very good in the 2nd half where he played alot through the middle. Even with Titch back I reckon he'll provide some X factor and split his time 50:50 through the middle.
 

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ash_1050

Premiership Player
Nov 21, 2009
3,059
5,298
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Melbourne Victory and Arsenal
Like the bet of Papley at $10.

Not quite the same ballpark for odds but Brisbane under 12.5 wins at $2.10 (Beteasy), Gold Coast over 4.5 wins at $2.12 and Melbourne under 10.5 wins at $1.88 all look good.
 

anabac

All Australian
Feb 21, 2011
743
400
banana boat
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Dont hate Brad Shep at 8s, Luke Ryan 15s and Wingard forward at 10s. Guessing Wingard plays more forward with Titch back, O'Meara and Worpel fit.
Wingard is poison at $10 IMO. Couldnt even manage a goal per game last year, not sure how he makes All Australian unless he kicks 40-50 goals which i cant see happening with Hawthorns spread of goalkickers
 

5 Bucks

Team Captain
Apr 20, 2011
436
140
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I'm liking Jenkins under 40.5 goals at $1.88 at BE. Can't see the Cats going with Hawkins, Sav and JJ every week if they're all fit and he'd be the one to miss out IMO.

Sam Lloyd under 32.5. Think Bruce will take too big a slice of the goalkicking pie and the crumbs will be distributed more evenly.

Stringer over 33.5. Has trained purely as a forward this preseason and they've got nobody else to kick to.

Patton over 36.5. The Hawks medical team are wizards and he's always played second fiddle behind Jezza. Lewis looks good but big Jon will be the #1 man you'd expect.
 

Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
734
671
AFL Club
West Coast
Not A poller, was Bog in many Freo games over the last 3 years and only managed 9 votes in all 3 seasons
14s still looks juicy overs to me. There's no N.Fyfe and with Saints lacking any sort of cream he should be the one they want the ball in the hands of. He won't need many. Should profit on cash out value alone.
 

Keystone agony

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 15, 2011
15,604
4,393
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
So far I've hit the Rising Star

1u H.Young @26
0.5u D.Stephens @17
0.2u J.Mead @51
0.1u T.Rivers @67

I also like Jenkins and Patton's Unders 40.5/36.5 goals but not getting on just yet. Jenkins in a more successful side. But I feel he and or Patton arnt lock best 22s
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
2,629
3,646
AFL Club
Adelaide
I'm liking Jenkins under 40.5 goals at $1.88 at BE. Can't see the Cats going with Hawkins, Sav and JJ every week if they're all fit and he'd be the one to miss out IMO.
I had a nibble at Jenkins Coleman at $101 earlier in the week. For reference, Hogan is $26 and out indefinitely...

Jenkins is one of 4 forwards I think to kick 40+ goals over the previous 4 years (before last year's cock-up of a year). He's joining a side with a great midfield who will win games and Hawkins will take the best defender. He won't have to ruck and there's no way they signed him to drop him. He's playing

Obviously need a lot to go right but there's no way he should be $100/1. Ratugolea is $51 - he isn't half the goal kicker Jenkins is. This is coming from someone who cannot stand his play, he cost us many games being a piss-weak big body but can't deny his goal kicking ability.

Dunkley Brownlow - $51
Kennedy Coleman - $15 (injury cloud?)
Taranto Brownlow - $67
Treloar Brownlow - $34
Jenkins Coleman - $101

I think all of these come in substantially throughout the season for cash outs/hedging.

Anyone backing futures at < $10 are probably better off waiting. Prices fluctuate throughout the year, you'll get better numbers quite often by waiting.
 

Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
734
671
AFL Club
West Coast
So far I've hit the Rising Star

1u H.Young @26
0.5u D.Stephens @17
0.2u J.Mead @51
0.1u T.Rivers @67

I also like Jenkins and Patton's Unders 40.5/36.5 goals but not getting on just yet. Jenkins in a more successful side. But I feel he and or Patton arnt lock best 22s
I reckon Jenkins goes over. Crows slow ball movement was no good for him previous 2 years. Hell kick q few bags this year I reckon and go over comfortably
 

Keystone agony

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 15, 2011
15,604
4,393
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
I reckon Jenkins goes over. Crows slow ball movement was no good for him previous 2 years. Hell kick q few bags this year I reckon and go over comfortably
Yeh that's what I was thinking which made me indecisive and not rush into it

I'm more concerned about his best 22 job security

But going to a more successful side usually means easier goals

Once his position in best 22 becomes more clear I'll reconsider
 

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burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
2,629
3,646
AFL Club
Adelaide
Yeh that's what I was thinking which made me indecisive and not rush into it

I'm more concerned about his best 22 job security

But going to a more successful side usually means easier goals

Once his position in best 22 becomes more clear I'll reconsider
Why are people questioning his position in the 22. Geelong want to win now and they brought him over from interstate quite clearly with the intention of playing. Wouldn't the assumption be he's playing rather than not?
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,597
4,393
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
I think you could do worse than Harry Mckay leading goal-kicker at Carlton $2.50.
Im probably his biggest non-Carlton fan, but I just think he is primed for a breakout year, he has all the trademarks of a superstar power forward. I don't trust McGovern to kick goals consistently + I think he will be used as a swingman at times & Betts is just flat-out cooked. Kicked 26.30 last year which I don't think does him justice cause he is a beautiful kick of the footy. Only an injury kills this bet IMO.

Also don't mind Jack Lonie $21 for a bit of value. Membrey is the obvious choice & he did look real good last night but just think Lonie has some value, he will be a full-time small forward this year and he is pretty good at his craft.
 

Keystone agony

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 15, 2011
15,604
4,393
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
Why are people questioning his position in the 22. Geelong want to win now and they brought him over from interstate quite clearly with the intention of playing. Wouldn't the assumption be he's playing rather than not?
Because Esava and Hawkins are there 1 + 2 it makes for a big lumbering forward line and at times will be exposed

They gave up bugger all for him. Just some opinions from cat supporters.

I think he starts but in no ways is locked every week and I'd say will be dropped at some point. He couldn't get a game at the crows, at the cats? Hmmmm better side with better key fwds
 

burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
2,629
3,646
AFL Club
Adelaide
Because Esava and Hawkins are there 1 + 2 it makes for a big lumbering forward line and at times will be exposed

They gave up bugger all for him. Just some opinions from cat supporters.

I think he starts but in no ways is locked every week and I'd say will be dropped at some point. He couldn't get a game at the crows, at the cats? Hmmmm better side with better key fwds
Evasa isnt better than him and he got dropped from us for personality rather than ability i think. His form was good before hurting his knee last year

Youre probably right hes first dropped so needs to start well but i think they really lacked options at times last year and brought him in for this reason. How they focus on developing evasa with that im not sure though
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
1,923
1,293
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
So far I've hit the Rising Star

1u H.Young @26
0.5u D.Stephens @17
0.2u J.Mead @51
0.1u T.Rivers @67

I also like Jenkins and Patton's Unders 40.5/36.5 goals but not getting on just yet. Jenkins in a more successful side. But I feel he and or Patton arnt lock best 22s
I reckon Patton's primed for a massive year. Good last night, good in the intra club and looked good on the track with a slimmed down physique. I think he'll be the primary forward target and O'Brien and Lewis are better off as 2nd or 3rd marking options. He is a very good kick for goal so won't need too many chances.

Obviously he's a worry injury wise, but he's had an extensive recovery period and Hawks medical staff pretty good.

Like your Young Rising Star bet. Freo with plenty of injuries down back. He'll have plenty of chances to make an impression.
 

Sausage Legs

All Australian
Sep 17, 2014
734
671
AFL Club
West Coast
I think you could do worse than Harry Mckay leading goal-kicker at Carlton $2.50.
Im probably his biggest non-Carlton fan, but I just think he is primed for a breakout year, he has all the trademarks of a superstar power forward. I don't trust McGovern to kick goals consistently + I think he will be used as a swingman at times & Betts is just flat-out cooked. Kicked 26.30 last year which I don't think does him justice cause he is a beautiful kick of the footy. Only an injury kills this bet IMO.

Also don't mind Jack Lonie $21 for a bit of value. Membrey is the obvious choice & he did look real good last night but just think Lonie has some value, he will be a full-time small forward this year and he is pretty good at his craft.
Like him. I reckon u better takin the 1.88 to kick over 35 tho. He can come second and still win although the big kicker is if he gets injured and doesn't play 15 games. Coin back.
 

Hamingja

Brownlow Medallist
May 20, 2014
14,667
18,230
AFL Club
Geelong
Because Esava and Hawkins are there 1 + 2 it makes for a big lumbering forward line and at times will be exposed

They gave up bugger all for him. Just some opinions from cat supporters.

I think he starts but in no ways is locked every week and I'd say will be dropped at some point. He couldn't get a game at the crows, at the cats? Hmmmm better side with better key fwds
There is a lot of the old bigfooty it's better to be young than good in the Sav v Jenkins debate IMO.

My money is on Jenkins having a good pre season and Chris Scott going full ****** and leaving Stanley out, Esava to ruck, Hawkins and Jenkins up forward. He just won't be able to help himself.
 

Keystone agony

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 15, 2011
15,604
4,393
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
There is a lot of the old bigfooty it's better to be young than good in the Sav v Jenkins debate IMO.

My money is on Jenkins having a good pre season and Chris Scott going full ****** and leaving Stanley out, Esava to ruck, Hawkins and Jenkins up forward. He just won't be able to help himself.
That's an option for sure. Be interesting how much they use Esava as a ruck in Marsh that will tell a tail a bit
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
21,109
26,773
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
New York Jets
I haven't done it yet but I place a few investments on teams to make finals that I'm pretty sure of.

The odds aren't high, but it's a better ROI over 6 months than any other investment I have so happy to bank the 15% on Tigers, 18% on the Eagles, etc. haven't looked into it yet, but have done it the last few years and haven't lost one.
 

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