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The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
8,239
17,947
AFL Club
St Kilda
Any value in the updated most disposals and goals market on SB?
Marshall is at $2 for 15+
Will play on ball all game, solo rucking with ryder out.

Also steele is actually priced in the 15+ market (@1.12) for basically the first time all year- he's only missed it once in rnd3.

I'd also say lynch and riewoldt are solid goal options with carlisle out (we don't have any decent backup with battle likely to miss too)

Oh you meant finals totals- nevermind
 

Geeves Train

Team Captain
Mar 24, 2008
459
358
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Sportsbet no but Tab Touch are $15 Lynch MG (Sbet $7) and Treloar $10 MD (Sbet $4).
Obviously reliant on sides winning this week but they were the only overs I thought I could see
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
8,239
17,947
AFL Club
St Kilda
I manged to jump on the tigers paying $6.50 for GF runners up on ladbrokes this morning + odds boost and 2 leg multi w neale brownlow = $8.91

They have since dropped the tigs back down to $5.

But i had a quick look around and 365 and pointsbet have them at $6 if anyone is still interested
 

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NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
4,953
6,718
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
I manged to jump on the tigers paying $6.50 for GF runners up on ladbrokes this morning + odds boost and 2 leg multi w neale brownlow = $8.91

They have since dropped the tigs back down to $5.

But i had a quick look around and 365 and pointsbet have them at $6 if anyone is still interested
No offense but I think you have put too many eggs in the Neale basket. Sure he is very likely to win, but don’t think adding him to any old multi is giving it extra value.
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
8,239
17,947
AFL Club
St Kilda
No offense but I think you have put too many eggs in the Neale basket. Sure he is very likely to win, but don’t think adding him to any old multi is giving it extra value.
Meh, fair enough.
If it becomes a straw that breaks every camel's back, so be it.

Of my current outlay pretty much 100% of it is dependent on him getting up.

But i also have in front of me today a number of 80% of full payout cashback offers that, if I took them all right now- would return almost all my current outlay.

Maybe I'll get nervous before brownlow night and cashout half of my outlay and let the rest ride?
Maybe I wont and be prepared to lose the whole outlay.
Maybe sportsbet might do what they done in the past (at much higher odds than lachie is mind you)- and payout on neale early for some extra publicity??

The fundamental is I'm prepared to walk away entirely empty handed if required.

By my estimations though- with neale at 1.25 and the next best at 7.00- it's not quite a 1 horse race, but not far off.
He's had a phenomenal year relative to the rest of the field.

I had the same approach with serong for RS star incidentally, where I added him to everything- initially at good odds, but all the way into his floor at 1.25- and he held up pretty well getting 48 of a possible 50 votes.

Happy to lose what I've staked, I'll just be very surprised if i do because neale doesn't get up.
 

benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
902
577
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Fremantle
Little bit on Short 7 dollars and Cotchin 26 dollars most disposals for Finals. They are the team most likely to go to 4 games. The danger is Prestia at 4 bucks
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
48,857
57,691
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
No offense but I think you have put too many eggs in the Neale basket. Sure he is very likely to win, but don’t think adding him to any old multi is giving it extra value.
+1

Even then, its not about him winning but rather having that mindset that a certain play is a deadset lock.

Books love punters that have this attitude, as they know in the long run they will be ahead of the punter that goes down this path.

Why stop just there, I mean why not just add Neale to every bet that you place in the Finals?
 

The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
8,239
17,947
AFL Club
St Kilda
Why stop just there, I mean why not just add Neale to every bet that you place in the Finals?
I am.

(Aside from 3 leg SGMs)

Did the same with serong.
The fundamentals don't change- if I'm not prepared for a bet to lose, regardless of what it's comprised of- i simply don't make it.

It would only become an issue if I was betting only something i considered a 'sure thing' above what id be prepared to lose.

If neale losing the brownlow was the sole losing leg in 10 bets that I made, i wouldn't be looking at it as me losing money because of neale- because it's money i never had in the first place.
If a bet gets up- it gets up- it's very black and white... in my mind there is no such thing as an 'almost win', those don't matter.

I take the same mindset with bets on disposals or goals etc.
If i bet on dangerfield to get 20 possies and he gets 19... i don't kick myself and think- dammit, he was only 1 possie away!!
Because guess what- he was equally 1 possie away from getting 18 as well.
Our brain by default discounts that side of the coin though doesn't it?

The point is that you can either win with a bet... or lose with one- anything in between is just irrational emotional responses.

You're right in saying that bookies love pig headed punters who back in 'sure things' time and again.
It's actually a classic example of 'cognitive tunneling', where your brain, instead of doing what it normally does in taking in information from everywhere, instead gets stuck and only shines its spotlight on a select few pieces of information and outright rejects everything else.

But you are using your imagination in saying that's what I always or often do just because I've done it on this occasion.

Just because it's unwise to always or often put your eggs in one basket (which it is), doesn't mean putting your eggs all in one basket never works.
 
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mouncey2franklin

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 16, 2018
5,334
7,752
AFL Club
North Melbourne
Anybody know where to find grand final quinella markets? Can't seem to find them on Sportsbet.

Would love to know what Coll vs Rich is paying right now.

EDIT: Okay, found it on betfair. Paying $9.6.

I put a few bob on it. If I win tonight I'll put more on it (although the odds will come in if Collingwood win, obviously).

Who played off in the VFL Grand Final 100 years ago?

And who played in the resumption of the 2020 season after the corona break?

And what was the result?

Sometimes I like to punt based on what some might call 'superstition'...
 
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NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
4,953
6,718
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Anybody know where to find grand final quinella markets? Can't seem to find them on Sportsbet.

Would love to know what Coll vs Rich is paying right now.

EDIT: Okay, found it on betfair. Paying $9.6.

I put a few bob on it. If I win tonight I'll put more on it (although the odds will come in if Collingwood win, obviously).

Who played off in the VFL Grand Final 100 years ago?

And who played in the resumption of the 2020 season after the corona break?

And what was the result?

Sometimes I like to punt based on what some might call 'superstition'...
If the GF was at the G, I do think the AFL would be doing whatever they can to get a Collingwood/Rich GF, in Brisbane I’m not too sure though.
 

mouncey2franklin

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 16, 2018
5,334
7,752
AFL Club
North Melbourne
If the GF was at the G, I do think the AFL would be doing whatever they can to get a Collingwood/Rich GF, in Brisbane I’m not too sure though.
Agreed. I think the AFL want a Brisbane premiership.

However, the umpires can't kick the goals for the players.

This season, Brisbane has been right up there with St Kilda for team-wide shaky goalkicking.

I could easily see the Lions kicking themselves out of a GF berth.
 

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The_Steadier

Norm Smith Medallist
May 6, 2009
8,239
17,947
AFL Club
St Kilda
I manged to jump on the tigers paying $6.50 for GF runners up on ladbrokes this morning + odds boost and 2 leg multi w neale brownlow = $8.91

They have since dropped the tigs back down to $5.

But i had a quick look around and 365 and pointsbet have them at $6 if anyone is still interested
Tigers odds are now half, into 3.25 for GF runners up after simply doing what everybody expected them to do and beat the saints.
It was ridiculous that they were paying far more to lose the GF than win it, that has now changed also.


Also If anyone is interested in the quinella market, sportsbet don't allow you to multi that market, but do allow multis (to some extent) with their 'make the gf' market at the same odds as the quinella market.

It allows you to multi what is in effect a quinella AFL GF bet with either non AFL bets and/or the brownlow winner market.

It also oddly allows you to bet on the impossible as a multi- eg: port and richmond making the gf.
 
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GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
48,857
57,691
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Agreed. I think the AFL want a Brisbane premiership.

However, the umpires can't kick the goals for the players.

This season, Brisbane has been right up there with St Kilda for team-wide shaky goalkicking.

I could easily see the Lions kicking themselves out of a GF berth.
Can I also see the Lions choking in their kicking accuracy in a GF.

With that said, the Cats are also terrible shots for goal under intense heat, Hawkins and Danger are vulnerable. Easy to kick goals out of your arse last week, when the other side doesnt turn up.
 

BuddysBiggestFan

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 24, 2008
5,095
4,519
Hawthorn
AFL Club
Hawthorn
SportsBet have made a huge mistake on the AFL grand final exacta market, unless I’m reading it wrong.
It clearly says “pays on both grand finalists with premier listed first”.
however they have put it the other way around. E.g you can get Richmond/Geelong $31
Richmond/Port $41

tell me why I shouldn’t fill my boots ?
Fill her up!!!

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