AFL Futures

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GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
48,857
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
any chance a few people can call up and nag sportsbet about putting up more AFL futures markets? e.g. Most tackles, marks, disposals. Think they are getting sick of me
Tell them Im still ready to back Stengle AGS in the 1st QTR, despite his "coke" problem and likely never playing for the Crows again. :drunk:
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
23,787
30,532
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New York Jets
Is this the thread for discussing the 2021 AFL season?

What do people think of the Saints this year? Genuine contenders?
Not for the flag.
$1.87 to make the 8, I'd actually want that to be a bit bigger to be happy making that bet given it needs big money as a long term future, e.g I'm not waiting 6 months to be paid out on a 1u bet.

In terms of top 8 futures 33% ROI on Brisbane and Port or even 16% ROI on Geelong to make the 8, and also Bulldogs 66% ROI over 6 months, thats a better investment return than you'd get on certain risky stock plays so I'm probably going to put a chunk on some of those.
 

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burge13

Premiership Player
Jan 25, 2019
4,653
8,689
AFL Club
Adelaide
Melbourne to make the 8 - 2.50
Freo to make the 8 - 3.75

I like one of them to make it for varying reasons

If Ben Brown returns to form the Dees are right in it with a solid backline, Gawn in the ruck, and a good midfield...
Freo another preseason into their young midfielders will give Fyfe/Walters more freedom to roam and get on the scoreboard. Need a healthy backline though but 11 games in Perth should see them win 7-8 of them. Only need 3-4 more to make it

Anyone else want to weigh in here?
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
48,857
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Melbourne to make the 8 - 2.50
Freo to make the 8 - 3.75

I like one of them to make it for varying reasons

If Ben Brown returns to form the Dees are right in it with a solid backline, Gawn in the ruck, and a good midfield...
Freo another preseason into their young midfielders will give Fyfe/Walters more freedom to roam and get on the scoreboard. Need a healthy backline though but 11 games in Perth should see them win 7-8 of them. Only need 3-4 more to make it

Anyone else want to weigh in here?
Freo is not bad, but I would need to look more into their draw and see who they double up against.
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
48,857
57,691
AFL Club
Adelaide
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¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Melbourne to make the 8 - 2.50
Freo to make the 8 - 3.75

I like one of them to make it for varying reasons

If Ben Brown returns to form the Dees are right in it with a solid backline, Gawn in the ruck, and a good midfield...
Freo another preseason into their young midfielders will give Fyfe/Walters more freedom to roam and get on the scoreboard. Need a healthy backline though but 11 games in Perth should see them win 7-8 of them. Only need 3-4 more to make it

Anyone else want to weigh in here?
As the reigning AFL POTY nothing has earned me more coin the last two season then fading the ultimate hype lords in Melbourne - I doubt that will change this year and happy to fade them in every single market available.
Do you guys recall if the future markets (if some of) were refunded when corona hit and the season was suspended?
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
23,787
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Melbourne
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Melbourne to make the 8 - 2.50
Freo to make the 8 - 3.75

I like one of them to make it for varying reasons

If Ben Brown returns to form the Dees are right in it with a solid backline, Gawn in the ruck, and a good midfield...
Freo another preseason into their young midfielders will give Fyfe/Walters more freedom to roam and get on the scoreboard. Need a healthy backline though but 11 games in Perth should see them win 7-8 of them. Only need 3-4 more to make it

Anyone else want to weigh in here?
I personally think Freo are another year away, Melbourne is interesting, they've got a lot of the pieces in place and I could see them making it, but what would hold me back is, its Melbourne! They need to prove it before I put my coin on them.

I'd be happy to pass on either, but if I had to back one of those it would be the Demons.
 

burge13

Premiership Player
Jan 25, 2019
4,653
8,689
AFL Club
Adelaide
I personally think Freo are another year away, Melbourne is interesting, they've got a lot of the pieces in place and I could see them making it, but what would hold me back is, its Melbourne! They need to prove it before I put my coin on them.

I'd be happy to pass on either, but if I had to back one of those it would be the Demons.
By the time they prove it they won't be 2.50 odds though...
I agree the Goodwin factor shouldn't be discounted.
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
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By the time they prove it they won't be 2.50 odds though...
I agree the Goodwin factor shouldn't be discounted.
Yes, but I don't bet with FOMO, there's always another good spot around the corner, if I miss this I won't regret it.
Melbourne aren't yet a team I'm willing to put my money and faith in.

I'm not saying it's an awful bet, just that personally I'd be happy to pass and reckon there's better investments for my plays. But I'd take it over the Freo bet if I had to choose between those 2.
 

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Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
7,053
7,835
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West Coast
Minor Prems Geelong ($4.50)

Least Wins Adelaide ($5) ridiculous price. Have people forgotten how putrid they were last year even with dat covid bonus
 

iluvparis

Import Whisperer
Apr 1, 2005
39,720
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Carlton
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Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Minor Prems Geelong ($4.50)

Least Wins Adelaide ($5) ridiculous price. Have people forgotten how putrid they were last year even with dat covid bonus
Also on the crows $5 least wins - looks as equally good value as the Broncos same price in the NRL
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
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Melbourne
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New York Jets
Minor Prems Geelong ($4.50)

Least Wins Adelaide ($5) ridiculous price. Have people forgotten how putrid they were last year even with dat covid bonus
That's value for sure.

Dont underestimate North in full tank mode, especially in an "official" rebuild mode.

Nevertheless, Crows are value though.
Assuming they're paying more than $2, could hedge and back both?

I feel the only danger would be the Swans and Bombers.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
7,053
7,835
AFL Club
West Coast
Even North spanked them by 70 last year. No need to hedge. They're list is even worse than it was last year.

Picking up those couple wins at home at the end of the covid year against hub teams is massively inflating their odds for this season
 

JuniorWatch

Club Legend
Jun 13, 2016
1,635
5,110
AFL Club
Essendon
IMO Sydney are too well coached and the Crows will get a few soft wins over teams like North and Essendon at home. Highly likely they won't win away but i think north will clearly be the worst in the league. Don't underestimate the jet engines from Tulla though. We basically have no defence or attack.
 

Jugada

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 5, 2012
7,053
7,835
AFL Club
West Coast
IMO Sydney are too well coached and the Crows will get a few soft wins over teams like North and Essendon at home. Highly likely they won't win away but i think north will clearly be the worst in the league. Don't underestimate the jet engines from Tulla though. We basically have no defence or attack.
They don't play the Bombers at home so that's one contender for the spoon they should already be -1 against and they play North both home and away so Should even out. Swans another one contending that they also only play away.

Even if you're banking on the bottom teams matches against each other deciding it they are already going to struggle to outperform them.
 

squeaky1000

Team Captain
Apr 30, 2018
316
442
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Melbourne to make the 8 - 2.50
Freo to make the 8 - 3.75

I like one of them to make it for varying reasons

If Ben Brown returns to form the Dees are right in it with a solid backline, Gawn in the ruck, and a good midfield...
Freo another preseason into their young midfielders will give Fyfe/Walters more freedom to roam and get on the scoreboard. Need a healthy backline though but 11 games in Perth should see them win 7-8 of them. Only need 3-4 more to make it

Anyone else want to weigh in here?
I'm quietly confident on Freo this year, they have some serious youth coming through, quality returning in the back half and Fyfe looks as good a pre-season Brownlow chance as any - would expect them to be fighting it out for the last couple spots in the 8 and close to $4 seems decent odds. The WA border complications and potential fixture re-configurations would worry me slightly but probably get a bit of a better idea on that over the next couple weeks.

Could not touch Melbourne at that price, yes they could certainly sneak into the 8 but could just as easily finish 12th-14th and I'd be wanting a lot better than $2.50 to be getting involved on them

Edit - going off these thoughts you can probably guess Freo +14.5 v the Dees r1 is an early contender for my favourite bet of the round
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
23,787
30,532
Melbourne
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Richmond
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New York Jets
I'm quietly confident on Freo this year, they have some serious youth coming through, quality returning in the back half and Fyfe looks as good a pre-season Brownlow chance as any - would expect them to be fighting it out for the last couple spots in the 8 and close to $4 seems decent odds. The WA border complications and potential fixture re-configurations would worry me slightly but probably get a bit of a better idea on that over the next couple weeks.

Could not touch Melbourne at that price, yes they could certainly sneak into the 8 but could just as easily finish 12th-14th and I'd be wanting a lot better than $2.50 to be getting involved on them

Edit - going off these thoughts you can probably guess Freo +14.5 v the Dees r1 is an early contender for my favourite bet of the round
Good call, could they play finals with only 6-8 games in WA? Not for mine, but it's just so unclear how the fixture will work particularly for WA teams. They could be forced to hub elsewhere the majority of the season, or they could possibly get stretches of consecutive home games against travelling sides.
 

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