AFL Futures

[JuniorWatch]

Can someone please tell me the odds on Hugh Greenwood & Jack Steele for most tackles?
Got no access to my accounts atm.

Steele $5.50
Greenwood $13
SB

 

[NonPhixion]

Steele $5.50
Greenwood $13
SB

Thanks Junior, much appreciated mate.
seems fair odds, been waiting for that

 

[mookieb]

Got 1u Melb +27.5 and 2u Ade -6.5 but for me the best bet of round 1 was GWS -5.5 where i've gone 5u. Line is inching up now and I expect it to keep going. Assuming a 6 point HGA for GWS that would mean both teams are rated around the same. Personally I have GWS far superior + their preseason has been much better (Duncan will miss and I expect Selwood will as well - a few other players have been interrupted). Losing Taranto obviously doesn't help though.

Probably get on StK and Hawks as well.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Like the Giants, Hawks and especially the dogs.
Always good at the dome. Pies aren't.
I'll take the $2.28 SB

 

[JuniorWatch]

Like Tom Green @ $21 for Rising Star. TAB.
Looked just as good as Rowell in the PS and should play Round 1.

Also it's a good market to keep your eye on for in play betting with an eye to cash out.
Made some good money last year with players having big games and temporarily coming in from big odds in Willem Drew and Bailey Scott.

 

[samFFC]

Like Tom Green @ $21 for Rising Star. TAB.
Looked just as good as Rowell in the PS and should play Round 1.

Also it's a good market to keep your eye on for in play betting with an eye to cash out.
Made some good money last year with players having big games and temporarily coming in from big odds in Willem Drew and Bailey Scott.

depends if Green gets a proper run or not!

 

[samFFC]

Season over/unders

Very likely
Richmond over 14.5 wins
Essendon under 10.5 wins
gws over 13.5

Likely
Adelaide under 8.5 wins
Brisbane under 13.5 wins
Carlton under 8.5 wins
Collingwood over 14.5 wins
Geelong over 13.5
Hawks over 11.5
GC over 4.5
Port under 10.5
Saints under 10.5
WB over 12.5
Freo under 8.5

Who knows
North 9.5
Melbourne 10.5
Sydney 9.5
WC 14.5

 

[ash_1050]

Season over/unders

Very likely
Richmond over 14.5 wins
Essendon under 10.5 wins
gws over 13.5

Likely
Adelaide under 8.5 wins
Brisbane under 13.5 wins
Carlton under 8.5 wins
Collingwood over 14.5 wins
Geelong over 13.5
Hawks over 11.5
GC over 4.5
Port under 10.5
Saints under 10.5
WB over 12.5
Freo under 8.5

Who knows
North 9.5
Melbourne 10.5
Sydney 9.5
WC 14.5

Of those I'd say the bombers line is pretty spot on, I can see them getting 10 or 11 wins
Agreed GC over 4.5, have got them in a couple of multis at this line.
Sydney under 9.5 looks to be the other one I'd take.

 

[JuniorWatch]

depends if Green gets a proper run or not!

True, but with Taranto out for most of the season and Green's form i'm thinking he forces his way into some mid time.

 

[samFFC]

Of those I'd say the bombers line is pretty spot on, I can see them getting 10 or 11 wins
Agreed GC over 4.5, have got them in a couple of multis at this line.
Sydney under 9.5 looks to be the other one I'd take.

Think the Bombers will fall this year. Won't be as many easy wins as GC and Melbourne should definitely get a few more wins; and can see GWS realising that potential. Middle bunch (Essendon, Adelaide) going to get squeezed.

True, but with Taranto out for most of the season and Green's form i'm thinking he forces his way into some mid time.

Yeah just a trend with GWS that I was reading about. Even with their injuries last year they played around with Hately a lot in 2019.

 

[iluvparis]

Essendon couldn't possibly be on the right side of variance as much as they were last year (when I laid the living fk out them to make the 8 ) . They have to be big sliders for mine.

 

[Oraaaaazio]

Essendon couldn't possibly be on the right side of variance as much as they were last year (when I laid the living fk out them to make the 8 ) . They have to be big sliders for mine.

Not saying this as a dons fan, rather as a punter who is very desensitized to the club they support

Vs Collingwood ANZAC day, could've easily won that match, had a very rough time of it with a few umpiring calls, easily could've gone other way.
Vs Sydney, Rampe climbs the post at the siren, if that's called a free kick in the square they win
They had their fair whack of injuries and were uncompetitive for a period of the season there, if they stay fit through there, probably win more games
So they had 3 games they won by single figures and lost 2, hardly huge amount of luck there going their way

Variance could've gone against them but could've also gone further in their favour. I think they slide too this year but not because of variance going against them this year. Mostly think they'll fall from the lack of players completing pre-seasons, the new coach setup is an unknown which could go either way and Corona will have a massive impact on the season and how it plays out, who knows how each side is going to be impacted.

 

[iluvparis]

Not saying this as a dons fan,

You are kidding yourself - it was one of the luckiest runs into finals you will ever see and was a huge outlier in terms of states of the world. There % was 95 FFS! Go back and read the squiggle thread and reassess.

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Sportsbet have him at $67

Into $17 now! Thanks for the tip

 

[JuniorWatch]

Into $17 now! Thanks for the tip

No cash out.
Gotta root for him allllll year.

 

[Oraaaaazio]

You are kidding yourself - it was one of the luckiest runs into finals you will ever see and was a huge outlier in terms of states of the world. There % was 95 FFS! Go back and read the squiggle thread and reassess.

haha I didn't say they were unlucky, you lost a bet and put it down to variance... Variance could've gone further their way. Do you really disagree with any of what I said? Were they unlucky against the pies? could they have won vs swans? Did they have injuries? Yes, yes, yes.

The Squiggle is one (admittedly pretty good) model amongst tonnes out there, mine had them rated about 10th by end of the season with a rolling rating and so did many others I speak to (all sharper than I) and they finished 8th, there was **** all between ~6th-12th, it's not in the top 1,000 bad beats/bad variance I've seen.

FFS!

 

[ash_1050]

Think the Bombers will fall this year. Won't be as many easy wins as GC and Melbourne should definitely get a few more wins; and can see GWS realising that potential. Middle bunch (Essendon, Adelaide) going to get squeezed.

You are kidding yourself - it was one of the luckiest runs into finals you will ever see and was a huge outlier in terms of states of the world. There % was 95 FFS! Go back and read the squiggle thread and reassess.

I'd wager a bottle of whisky with either or both of you on us getting over 9.5 wins this season*. I reckon we'll land in the 10-12 wins.

*subject to us playing a full 22 games this season

 

[samFFC]

I'd wager a bottle of whisky with either or both of you on us getting over 9.5 wins this season*. I reckon we'll land in the 10-12 wins.

*subject to us playing a full 22 games this season

I'll pass but nice to see the confidence haha!

 

[iluvparis]

I'd wager a bottle of whisky with either or both of you on us getting over 9.5 wins this season*. I reckon we'll land in the 10-12 wins.

*subject to us playing a full 22 games this season

Solid confidence to team supported ratio.

 

[iluvparis]

haha I didn't say they were unlucky, you lost a bet and put it down to variance... Variance could've gone further their way. Do you really disagree with any of what I said? Were they unlucky against the pies? could they have won vs swans? Did they have injuries? Yes, yes, yes.

The Squiggle is one (admittedly pretty good) model amongst tonnes out there, mine had them rated about 10th by end of the season with a rolling rating and so did many others I speak to (all sharper than I) and they finished 8th, there was fu** all between ~6th-12th, it's not in the top 1,000 bad beats/bad variance I've seen.

FFS!

I maintain there are very few states of the world that would have seen them make the 8 last year. Unbiased squiggle agrees. They were EXTREMELY lucky.

 

[ash_1050]

Solid confidence to team supported ratio.

Over confidence would be saying we'll make finals. I'm confident we'll hit 10-12 wins. The offer still stands.

 

[iluvparis]

Over confidence would be saying we'll make finals. I'm confident we'll hit 10-12 wins. The offer still stands.

I'd rather bet on them to miss the 8 then to achieve some arbitrary number of wins

 

[ash_1050]

I'd rather bet on them to miss the 8 then to achieve some arbitrary number of wins

We'd both be betting on the same thing then, I can't see us making finals

 

[mookieb]

Every man and his dog has Essendon to be the team dropping out of the 8. However, they are getting some players back like Devon Smith, plus others like Fantasia who never seemed fit and more than the average amount of injuries. I'd be expecting some solid improvement from McGrath, Parish and a few others.

So they did look a good chance to improve on last year, but they have now had a terrible preparation with Daniher, Heppell, Ambrose and Hooker out and others with a limited prep so they might well do a Melbourne here.

If you're laying them top 8 then you might want to get some good odds in round 4 - they could easily win their 1st 3 even with a poor prep.

 

[iluvparis]

Every man and his dog has Essendon to be the team dropping out of the 8. However, they are getting some players back like Devon Smith, plus others like Fantasia who never seemed fit and more than the average amount of injuries. I'd be expecting some solid improvement from McGrath, Parish and a few others.

So they did look a good chance to improve on last year, but they have now had a terrible preparation with Daniher, Heppell, Ambrose and Hooker out and others with a limited prep so they might well do a Melbourne here.

If you're laying them top 8 then you might want to get some good odds in round 4 - they could easily win their 1st 3 even with a poor prep.

People said this about laying Melbourne for the top 4 last year - wait until round 4 and they will be a much better price....oh wait....they're not.