AFL Grand Final Premiership Tally.

[jarrod_island_doggies]

AFL only, since 1990 -

Hawks -5
Eagles - 4
Lions - 3
Cats - 3
Crows -2
Tigers -2
Pies - 2
Swans -2
North - 2
Bombers -2
Blues -1
Port -1
Bulldogs -1

I've never been convinced as to why 1990 is a good year to restart the clock. Sure, the big (and as far as I can see, only) thing going for it is a name change - maybe to reflect an attitude? But in terms of competition, there is nothing to distinguish 1990 from 1987, nor did the league have any representation from South Australia.

Anyone able to explain further why it makes sense? Genuinely interested.

 

[Philth]

I've never been convinced as to why 1990 is a good year to restart the clock. Sure, the big (and as far as I can see, only) thing going for it is a name change - maybe to reflect an attitude? But in terms of competition, there is nothing to distinguish 1990 from 1987, nor did the league have any representation from South Australia.

Anyone able to explain further why it makes sense? Genuinely interested.

Yeah, I had assumed that's the year the Crows came in, but it was actually 1991.....

 

[Goggin Our Best]

What would be really good - would be proper list since day dot - and by that i mean there has to be a grand final played in the year - like Ess had one i think when the media voted the best team for the year - and maybe there has to be a minium of say 8 teams in the comp for the year for them to count - so Fitzroys 4th and last but premiers doesnt count

Strip out the nonsense and rubbish and give us the proper tallys - flags have to be fair dinkum to count etc

 

[Juddernaut08]

Oh good, are we counting moral premierships? The Richmond supporters on here seem to think we’d be quite a way out in front if we get to include them.

Not saying we should count losses but saying theyve only won 1 in 124 years makes it seem worse than theyve actually been.

Eg the draw against Pies. Couldve gone either way.

 

[Dirty Bird]

The most even metric would be premierships divided by years in the competition, don't worry, Freo is still at the bottom.

I've actually taken this, but changed it a little.

A premiership in 1897 gives you a 1 in 8 chance of winning, while in 2019 gives you a 1 in 18 chance.
So I've just created an excel file determining the expected premierships a club should have by this point. (eg. Fremantle should have 1.5, while St Kilda should have 10.2)

I've then taken how many said club won, and deducted expected performance giving us a better guide (eg. Fremantle is -1.5, St Kilda -9.2) , then divided it by years in competition (To take the average)

I dont know what the mathematical term is, but my list of most successful vs expectation is

1. Brisbane Lions +0.070510088
2. Hawthorn +0.060658241
3. West Coast +0.05891973
4. Essendon +0.047693109
5. Carlton +0.043530078
6. Collingwood +0.035399996
7. Richmond +0.024367853
8. Melbourne +0.0157988885
9. Adelaide +0.007933288
10. Geelong -0.009074852
11. Port Adelaide -0.016446434
12. Fitzroy -0.026458004
13. North Melbourne -0.034078601
14. Sydney -0.044227872
15. Western Bulldogs -0.055131233
16. Greater Western Sydney -0.055555556
17. Gold Coast -0.055918664
18. Fremantle -0.060130719
19. Brisbane Bears -0.067738095
20. St Kilda -0.076273833
21. University -0.1

Note: This is to the end of 2019. The order wont change next week either.

 

[Chief]

Yeah ok.

Look, you’re living in the past Chief. We get it, your club’s got 16 flags, CONGRATS. But that’s history.

There’s a Grand Final being played on Saturday and that’s much more topical.

It’s just a list.

 

[M Malice]

Most losing Grand Finals >

Collingwood- 27
Essendon- 14
Carlton- 13
Richmond- 12
Sth. Melbourne/Sydney- 12
Geelong- 9
St. Kilda- 6
Hawthorn- 6
Fitzroy- 5
Melbourne- 5
Nth Melbourne- 5
West Coast- 3
Brisbane- 1
Adelaide- 1
Bulldogs- 1
Port Adelaide- 1
Fremantle- 1
GWS- 1

 

[Juddernaut08]

Most losing Grand Finals >

Collingwood- 27
Essendon- 14
Carlton- 13
Richmond- 12
Sth. Melbourne/Sydney- 12
Geelong- 9
St. Kilda- 6
Hawthorn- 6
Fitzroy- 5
Melbourne- 5
Nth Melbourne- 5
West Coast- 3
Brisbane- 1
Adelaide- 1
Bulldogs- 1
Port Adelaide- 1
Fremantle- 1
GWS- 1

crazy bad luck for the saints 1-6

 

[jarrod_island_doggies]

Most losing Grand Finals >

Collingwood- 27
Essendon- 14
Carlton- 13
Richmond- 12
Sth. Melbourne/Sydney- 12
Geelong- 9
St. Kilda- 6
Hawthorn- 6
Fitzroy- 5
Melbourne- 5
Nth Melbourne- 5
West Coast- 3
Brisbane- 1
Adelaide- 1
Bulldogs- 1
Port Adelaide- 1
Fremantle- 1
GWS- 1

Basically when the Dees were good, they were bloody good, otherwise they've gone missing a lot.

 

[windyhill]

Ess kick 7.27 in a tie with Melbourne, oh Jesus

 

[PetterdHoisted]

I've actually taken this, but changed it a little.

A premiership in 1897 gives you a 1 in 8 chance of winning, while in 2019 gives you a 1 in 18 chance.
So I've just created an excel file determining the expected premierships a club should have by this point. (eg. Fremantle should have 1.5, while St Kilda should have 10.2)

I've then taken how many said club won, and deducted expected performance giving us a better guide (eg. Fremantle is -1.5, St Kilda -9.2) , then divided it by years in competition (To take the average)

I dont know what the mathematical term is, but my list of most successful vs expectation is

1. Brisbane Lions +0.070510088
2. Hawthorn +0.060658241
3. West Coast +0.05891973
4. Essendon +0.047693109
5. Carlton +0.043530078
6. Collingwood +0.035399996
7. Richmond +0.024367853
8. Melbourne +0.0157988885
9. Adelaide +0.007933288
10. Geelong -0.009074852
11. Port Adelaide -0.016446434
12. Fitzroy -0.026458004
13. North Melbourne -0.034078601
14. Sydney -0.044227872
15. Western Bulldogs -0.055131233
16. Greater Western Sydney -0.055555556
17. Gold Coast -0.055918664
18. Fremantle -0.060130719
19. Brisbane Bears -0.067738095
20. St Kilda -0.076273833
21. University -0.1

Note: This is to the end of 2019. The order wont change next week either.

does that include the fact that only a handful of clubs keep playing through the major conflicts?

what about a team like Melbourne who lost 30 players in the major wars vs 5 from Richmond for example..how to normalize for that?

 

[Juddernaut08]

does that include the fact that only a handful of clubs keep playing through the major conflicts?

what about a team like Melbourne who lost 30 players in the major wars vs 5 from Richmond for example..how to normalize for that?

u can add as many factors to normalize as you want...end of the day those things happened. history will not remember the asterisks. only scoreboards.

 

[sobrave]

If you want to count rinky dink premierships from the horse and cart days or when they picked the winner from the team with the best moustaches, then you have to count our 36 SANFL premierships.

 

[Juddernaut08]

If you want to count rinky dink premierships from the horse and cart days or when they picked the winner from the team with the best moustaches, then you have to count our 36 SANFL premierships.

They do count...as sanfl

Port Adelaide:

1 AFL/VFL premiership
36 (or whatever) SANFL premierships

This is fact. Deal with it mate.

 

[sobrave]

They do count...as sanfl

Port Adelaide:

1 AFL/VFL premiership
36 (or whatever) SANFL premierships

This is fact. Deal with it mate.

Pointless thread then

 

[tigers_of_old_08]

Pointless thread then

Agree. But it suits the narrative of a Carlton supporter who obviously feels the need to feel relevant at this point in time.

 

[theyellowsash]

AFL only, since 1990 -

Hawks -5
Eagles - 4
Lions - 3
Cats - 3
Crows -2
Tigers -2
Pies - 2
Swans -2
North - 2
Bombers -2
Blues -1
Port -1
Bulldogs -1

What about since GWS joined since any minor change to the competition resets the count?

 

[jarrod_island_doggies]

What about since GWS joined since any minor change to the competition resets the count?

2012 is a bigger change than 1990 was in that regard

 

[Juddernaut08]

Agree. But it suits the narrative of a Carlton supporter who obviously feels the need to feel relevant at this point in time.

The club that has won the most grand finals will always be relevant.

Cheers

 

[Underarm]

I've never been convinced as to why 1990 is a good year to restart the clock. Sure, the big (and as far as I can see, only) thing going for it is a name change - maybe to reflect an attitude? But in terms of competition, there is nothing to distinguish 1990 from 1987, nor did the league have any representation from South Australia.

Anyone able to explain further why it makes sense? Genuinely interested.

It suits Western Australians and South Australians. The date would be different if West Coast won something before then.

 

[theyellowsash]

It suits Western Australians and South Australians. The date would be different if West Coast won something before then.

This. If the WC/crows fans were genuine they would argue that records should be reset either when the swans went to Sydney in 82, when the Bears and eagles joined in 87, or every time a new club joins.

It's clearly just to bignote themselves, which is why few other supporters take it with any seriousness.

 

[Bungeye]

A true tally of a team's greatness is how many grand finals you can participate in.

Winning one is just a bonus!

 

[Roobs321]

I've always been of the opinion that Brisbane Lions and Fitzroy flags should be counted together. So they have 11.

I guess the hypothetical there is if you would count Fitzroy flags if the Bears had won a few as well. The Bears having won 0 makes it easier and cleaner to distinguish between (and combine) Fitzroy and Brisbane tallies. The Brisbane Lions can lay some claim to Fitzroy history, but given you have two competing clubs merging it feels awkward to say we inherit BOTH flag tallies.

e.g. if Melbourne-Hawthorn had merged they would have had 21 flags come '97. Does that make the Melbourne Hawks the greatest club? because they are the Melbourne Demons/Hawthorn Hawks/Melbourne Hawks? Once again, somewhat clean in having mostly different flag eras, only the odd GF matchup like '88, but still, feels false to place something like the Melbourne Hawks above the Carlton Blues. North Fitzroy Kangaroos and Fitzroy Bulldogs would have been similar (different flag eras). I wonder if that is an unwritten desirable in merging two clubs, that their histories coincide as little as possible (which also means little rivalry, strangers unite type thing).

 

[JackOutback]

This. If the WC/crows fans were genuine they would argue that records should be reset either when the swans went to Sydney in 82, when the Bears and eagles joined in 87, or every time a new club joins.

It's clearly just to bignote themselves, which is why few other supporters take it with any seriousness.

1990 has been chosen because that's when the name changed from VFL to AFL. Personally, I think 1987 was the first true national expansion, Sydney notwithstanding, 1991 was good because all the major football states were represented. It's all largely irrelevant though, only current success really counts for anyone at any time. Are Carlton fans ecstatic about topping the list when many fans haven't seen a premiership in their lifetime? I doubt it.

 

[JPetro83]

Maybe do a tally from 1990....