AFL Introduces Wild Card Round

[Outtatym]

How many times has a team won it all from 8th again?

 

[joe444]

Probabilities of the new final 10

1st - 18.75%
2nd - 18.75%
3rd - 18.75%
4th - 18.75%
5th - 6.25%
6th - 6.25%
7th - 3.125%
8th - 3.125%
9th - 3.125%
10th - 3.125%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%
15th - 0%
16th - 0%
17th - 0%
18th - 0%

So this narrative about "rewarding mediocrity" is extremely misleading. There is a clear staggered set of mathematical advantages. To suggest a team finishing 10th with a 1 in 32 chance of winning the premiership is being "rewarded" is a stretch. Yes, there is a "reward", but that reward is having a 3.125% chance (1 in 32) instead of zero. Hardly a big reward. The top 4's reward is SIX times more likely.

The staggered set of rewards when you see them like this written down does not seem unfair. There are now three sets of mathematical advantages instead of two.

The point some are making is that teams 9 and 10 should be on 0%.

 

[joe444]

Again, the AFL don’t care that you hate them, precisely because you care about your club, not the AFL.

Honest question, how many people would keep watching the AFL if their club folded tomorrow? Vs how many people would watch their team in a brand new competition that’s not the AFL?
wanna hurt the AFL? Boycott their sponsors, visibly.
If someone started a #boycottToyota campaign because of this idiotic idea, and it led to a demonstrated negative impact to Toyota, watch how quickly the AFL will “listen to its fans”.

We may be at cross purposes, because I completely agree that the AFL is a master of taking supporter bases for granted.

I wouldn't be surprised, though, if we will see a tipping point where fan dissatisfaction will find a way.

 

[Dan26]

The point some are making is that teams 9 and 10 should be on 0%.

The point I am making is that increasing the probability of 9th and 10th from zero to 3.125% is hardly a "reward"

It's a small reward, yes, but a very small one. I mean, think about it. What people are sooking about is that 10th has gone from zero chance to a 1-in-32 chance. Big whoop.

It's a small but appropriate reward for a middling ladder position.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

I can't be bothered checking, but we are now 21 pages into this thread. Does anyone agree with this 'unanimous' decision the AFL is currently patting itself on the back over?

 

[beside the seaside]

I just don't get the uproar. It's two extra games of knockout footy on what was a bye week and it just gives a bit more meaning to some late season dead rubbers.

 

[Piggy Smalls]

I just don't get the uproar. It's two extra games of knockout footy on what was a bye week and it just gives a bit more meaning to some late season dead rubbers.

Personally, I don't like that you can finish in 10th which is mathematically 'below average' and still qualify for the post season.

 

[The Punter]

I am Derek Smalls. I wrote this.

https://www.theroar.com.au/2025/11/10/counterpoint-afls-progress-is-not-weakness-or-a-wokeness-more-finals-is-a-sign-things-are-getting-better/

 

[Corn Cobbers]

I can't be bothered checking, but we are now 21 pages into this thread. Does anyone agree with this 'unanimous' decision the AFL is currently patting itself on the back over?

Just a handful of pliant simps

 

[aussierulesrules]

While the whinge-about-everything crowd are throwing the toys out of the cot as per usual, I see far more positives to this change than negatives, so I’m all on board with it.

- It keeps the season alive for longer for the teams in the 9-12 type range. So less meaningless games in the back hand of the year.

- It gives us a couple of extra games on a weekend where there was otherwise no men’s footy. And games with a heap on the line at that. Those who don’t want to watch, guess what? YOU DON’T HAVE TO!

- It gives teams more incentive to finish top 6, and rewards those who do.

- When the top 8 was introduced there were only 7 teams who didn’t get to participate in the finals, but in recent years that’s gone out to 10, and was about to go out to 11, so once Tassie come in, that will now go to 9. Oh no, the world is ending!

- It gives every supporter group of the top 8 teams the chance to see their team play at home during either the finals, or “wildcard round”.

- If a team that finishes 7th or 8th isn’t good enough to beat the 10th or 9th ranked teams, they would have just been making up the numbers in the finals anyway, so who cares if they lose?

- The AFL will make a bunch more money, which they can then re-invest into the game in many ways. I do like how people try to make this out to be a bad thing though.

For those who are all up in arms about it, toys flying everywhere, I fully expect that you won’t be watching either of the games if your team isn’t involved, and if your team is, I expect you won’t be watching or going to the game your team is playing in.

Will you? Oh that’s right, you will. Why? Because it’s better than the alternative nothing important you would have otherwise done.

Now please, go and pick up your toys.

 

[Seattle Mariners]

I can't be bothered checking, but we are now 21 pages into this thread. Does anyone agree with this 'unanimous' decision the AFL is currently patting itself on the back over?

I reckon it's fantastic.

The pre finals bye was crap, and now we have two games to enjoy.

 

[Dazzler9]

So this narrative about "rewarding mediocrity" is extremely misleading. There is a clear staggered set of mathematical advantages. To suggest a team finishing 10th with a 1 in 32 chance of winning the premiership is being "rewarded" is a stretch. Yes, there is a "reward", but that reward is having a 3.125% chance (1 in 32) instead of zero. Hardly a big reward. The top 4's reward is SIX times more likely.

The staggered set of rewards when you see them like this written down does not seem unfair. There are now three sets of mathematical advantages instead of two.

I mean, the reward is literally an infinitely greater chance of winning the flag.

 

[kirky]

We also had 4 teams making it in a 12-team league (33%). For much, much longer than any other combination.

And all that did was increase the quality, make the games more important, and generally, far more memorable. Now half the finals are forgotten by November.

To make the finals under that arrangement (and even with the final 5 - 41.66%), you actually had to be a pretty decent team. Now moderate is all you need.

And it isn't being against change. It's change for its own sake versus improvement. I haven't seen anything close to an improvement for a long time.

You are talking about a competition that had a number of clubs on the verge of collapsing in the mid 80’s, so its league decided to expand it, charge an admission fee and get bigger $$$ thru tv rights. That competition?

I know a simple way to get back to a top 8, get rid of 2 Melbourne teams and then 50% of the sides make the 8 like it was from 1997 to 2010 (8 of 16).

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

People losing their minds because the word wildcard has been used and it's seen as "American". It's just an extra week of finals. If people are so opposed to the game representing anything American then get rid of finals all together and just award the premiership to the minor premier.

 

[joe444]

The point I am making is that increasing the probability of 9th and 10th from zero to 3.125% is hardly a "reward"

It's a small reward, yes, but a very small one. I mean, think about it. What people are sooking about is that 10th has gone from zero chance to a 1-in-32 chance. Big whoop.

It's a small but appropriate reward for a middling ladder position.

From "hardly a "reward" to "small but appropriate reward" in three sentences.

"Big whoop" - then it's a pointless exercise anyway, which is what those who disagree with it are arguing.
"appropriate reward" - then those who disagree with it suggest it is not appropriate.

Anyway, since you clearly haven't read How to Win Friends and Influence People, perhaps I can suggest you dust off this text:

 

[Mr Magic]

People losing their minds because the word wildcard has been used and it's seen as "American". It's just an extra week of finals. If people are so opposed to the game representing anything American then get rid of finals all together and just award the premiership to the minor premier.

this is part of the point the home and away is becoming a waste of time


go on holidays until September

 

[Dazzler9]

The point I am making is that increasing the probability of 9th and 10th from zero to 3.125% is hardly a "reward"

It's a small reward, yes, but a very small one. I mean, think about it. What people are sooking about is that 10th has gone from zero chance to a 1-in-32 chance. Big whoop.

It's a small but appropriate reward for a middling ladder position.

What do you mean it's a small reward??? They go from zero chance at the flag, to at least a chance. That is infinitely greater than it was before, the reward is huge!

 

[joe444]

The pre finals bye was crap, and now we have two games to enjoy.

Or we could go back to just starting the finals without a bye.

it's seen as "American". It's just an extra week of finals. If people are so opposed to the game representing anything American then get rid of finals all together and just award the premiership to the minor premier.

God I wish we did follow the Americans. In the NFL, 7 of the 16 teams in each conference make finals. Home field advantage throughout. No "ground rationalisation". Strictly enforced schedule that maximises fairness and is not compromised by artificial rivalries or marquee games.

 

[kirky]

Can anyone tell me why this is a good idea?

Compromising the integrity of the entire competition for 2 meaningless matches?

Yeh coz the season isn’t compromised by the fixture. Jeezus!

 

[Fud#3]

The AFL hear the problem they created with the post season bye, so to overcome a problem that wasn't really there in resting players.

So when the obvious solution is to remove bye, they create another solution which doesn't solve the problem and makes fans even more bemused.

 

[kirky]

People losing their minds because the word wildcard has been used and it's seen as "American". It's just an extra week of finals. If people are so opposed to the game representing anything American then get rid of finals all together and just award the premiership to the minor premier.

Thanks, we would have three more flags and you would have a couple more as well.

 

[The Punter]

I am astounded by the number of self-professed football fans arguing against more football.

Not really.

Just kick the bloody thing!

 

[BigVic]

Collingwood would've played Carlton in season 2024 had the Wild Card round been in place last year and it would've added two additional MCG games. Hawthorn would also host Fremantle in the other Wild Card Game.

 

[kirky]

Or we could go back to just starting the finals without a bye.

God I wish we did follow the Americans. In the NFL, 7 of the 16 teams in each conference make finals. Home field advantage throughout. No "ground rationalisation". Strictly enforced schedule that maximises fairness and is not compromised by artificial rivalries or marquee games.

And the Superbowl generally played at a neutral venue. Regular season games without the marquee games. I’m onboard with that.

 

[AFaiL]

Some people around here are very dense

It's not a top 10

It's actually now a top 6.

Nobody, nobody, is finishing 7-10, winning that 'final', then winning 4 more in a row.