AFL Introduces Wild Card Round

[The Punter]

Some people around here are very dense

It's not a top 10

It's actually now a top 6.

Nobody, nobody, is finishing 7-10, winning that 'final', then winning 4 more in a row.

No team has ever won a flag from 8th. Are all their games not finals?

 

[living_in_syd]

Some people around here are very dense

It's not a top 10

It's actually now a top 6.

Nobody, nobody, is finishing 7-10, winning that 'final', then winning 4 more in a row.

I would argue finishing 5 and 6 is the sweet spot now with the perfect amount of byes.

 

[lalorGOAT]

Some people around here are very dense

It's not a top 10

It's actually now a top 6.

Nobody, nobody, is finishing 7-10, winning that 'final', then winning 4 more in a row.

Well what's the point then lol

Why wouldn't they just skip the wildcard and make it a top 6?

 

[joe444]

What fascinates me is the pro-wildcard mob are basically suggesting:

- It gets rid of the bye!
rebuttal: we could just get rid of the bye, you know.

- 9th and 10th can't win it anyway
rebuttal: so why are we letting them play finals then?

- more footy is always better. don't you want more footy?
rebuttal: I want more meaningful footy.

- you are all so dumb.
rebuttal: oh how sweet to be an idiot.


But here's a reality. There is clearly no doubt that providing a situation where higher ranked teams have multiple byes in the finals has skewed results. The wildcard system just entrenches that.

A finals system is meant to reward in-season success and deliberately favour higher ranking teams. The wildcard, in conjunction with the continuation of the bye, works against that.

It's a dumb idea. Just because there are worse ideas doesn't mean it's good, especially when there are clearly better ones.

 

[flyinghi64]

What a joke.
Would like to know what fans they spoke to about it, more like friends and family.

So we basically bookend the season with 2 nothing rounds, great.

AFL just keeps doing AFL.

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

What a joke.
Would like to know what fans they spoke to about it, more like friends and family.

So we basically bookend the season with 2 nothing rounds, great.

AFL just keeps doing AFL.

Opening round is dumb, but they're still playing for premiership points.

I reckon if people are so outraged by this they should just find something else to do with their time in the winter months.

 

[Carn The Berries]

Half of 19 (9.5) is either 9 or 10. Clearly 10 makes more sense. There is a final-9 I've created but the 10 is better,

And what do you say to the statistics coming out of the VFL regarding margins in finals with their "not a" wildcard system?

The data suggests having more teams is creating more lopsided results as the finals progress.

Why do 50% of teams deserve/have to be in the finals? You keep banging on about this but haven't actually explained why this needs to be the case, particularly when it's been tried in the VFL and seems to be adding absolutely nothing to the spectacle of the finals.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Come 2030



"Hi there, im David King. With the first 2 months of the AFL post season, the final 8 is starting to emerge. So with last nights victory over Tasmania, Gold Coast must beat North Melbourne in order to advance to Brisbane in a effort to reduce the magic number to 6, and then Gold Coast can advance to the Preliminary Prelim finals round to play St Kilda. So if Gold Coast beats Brisbane and St Kilda beats Carlton in the Wildcard Preliminary Prelim Finals game then Gold Coast go to the Preliminary Final unless Fremantle can upset Adelaide and Richmond defeats North Melbourne in the Second chance Wildcard Preliminary Prelim Finals game then Adelaide would play Collingwood. If no clear winner emerges a 2 man sack race will be held on consecitive Sundays until a Preliminary finals contender is crowned "

 

[The Punter]

What fascinates me is the pro-wildcard mob are basically suggesting:

- It gets rid of the bye!
rebuttal: we could just get rid of the bye, you know.

- 9th and 10th can't win it anyway
rebuttal: so why are we letting them play finals then?

- more footy is always better. don't you want more footy?
rebuttal: I want more meaningful footy.

- you are all so dumb.
rebuttal: oh how sweet to be an idiot.


But here's a reality. There is clearly no doubt that providing a situation where higher ranked teams have multiple byes in the finals has skewed results. The wildcard system just entrenches that.

A finals system is meant to reward in-season success and deliberately favour higher ranking teams. The wildcard, in conjunction with the continuation of the bye, works against that.

It's a dumb idea. Just because there are worse ideas doesn't mean it's good, especially when there are clearly better ones.

Permit me to retort

It does get rid of the bye, and replaces it with additional football. Just getting rid of the bye moves your football free weekend from late August to mid March.

I didn't mention the 9th/10th stuff, but it is hardly better than 7th/8th, or for that matter, 5th/6th. Elimination finals under he current final 8 system have two flags from 26 seasons, and that percentage lessens when you add the old final eight system.

Any final is meaningful footy. I can understand why extra non-Geelong games (who always make finals under the old system anyway) would represent meaninglessness.

The wildcard system moves the bye benefit from "everyone in finals equally" to "the six best performed teams in the home and away season". WIN

We're going to have 20 teams in the competition in the next ten years. Expanding to a top 10 is due.

 

[The Punter]

Come 2030



"Hi there, im David King. With the first 2 months of the AFL post season, the final 8 is starting to emerge. So with last nights victory over Tasmania, Gold Coast must beat North Melbourne in order to advance to Brisbane in a effort to reduce the magic number to 6, and then Gold Coast can advance to the Preliminary Prelim finals round to play St Kilda. So if Gold Coast beats Brisbane and St Kilda beats Carlton in the Wildcard Preliminary Prelim Finals game then Gold Coast go to the Preliminary Final unless Fremantle can upset Adelaide and Richmond defeats North Melbourne in the Second chance Wildcard Preliminary Prelim Finals game then Adelaide would play Collingwood. If no clear winner emerges a 2 man sack race will be held on consecitive Sundays until a Preliminary finals contender is crowned "

That doesn't sound anything like David King.

"GWS, the wildcard round, that's their one wood, their strength. Tassie have to approach that game against the Giants as 'don't get beat by what you know'. Take the Giants strength away."

 

[Carn The Berries]

While the whinge-about-everything crowd are throwing the toys out of the cot as per usual, I see far more positives to this change than negatives, so I’m all on board with it.

- It keeps the season alive for longer for the teams in the 9-12 type range. So less meaningless games in the back hand of the year.

Yep - Now we just have 2 more essentially meaningless finals instead. The VFL data is pretty clear that the disadvantage this provides to 7-8 is making games more lopsided.

- It gives us a couple of extra games on a weekend where there was otherwise no men’s footy. And games with a heap on the line at that. Those who don’t want to watch, guess what? YOU DON’T HAVE TO!

Perhaps the AFL could actually do what they say is their aim and help to grow grass roots footy. Give local leagues some clear air.

- It gives teams more incentive to finish top 6, and rewards those who do.

Why should the 5th or 6th placed teams get more of an advantage in a finals series?

- When the top 8 was introduced there were only 7 teams who didn’t get to participate in the finals, but in recent years that’s gone out to 10, and was about to go out to 11, so once Tassie come in, that will now go to 9. Oh no, the world is ending!

What is the advantage of 10 teams (or 50% or whatever) teams competing in the finals? Does having half the teams involved improve the product?

- It gives every supporter group of the top 8 teams the chance to see their team play at home during either the finals, or “wildcard round”.

1 additional home game for 2 teams is hardly a benefit, but ok

- If a team that finishes 7th or 8th isn’t good enough to beat the 10th or 9th ranked teams, they would have just been making up the numbers in the finals anyway, so who cares if they lose?

If the teams finishing 9th or 10th couldn't do well enough to finish above these sides then do they deserve a chance to play in the finals?

- The AFL will make a bunch more money, which they can then re-invest into the game in many ways. I do like how people try to make this out to be a bad thing though.

Have you seen the state of local football in Victoria, particularly the country. If you think this is what's going to happen with any additional revenue then I've got some beans to sell you.

For those who are all up in arms about it, toys flying everywhere, I fully expect that you won’t be watching either of the games if your team isn’t involved, and if your team is, I expect you won’t be watching or going to the game your team is playing in.

Will you? Oh that’s right, you will. Why? Because it’s better than the alternative nothing important you would have otherwise done.

Ummmm.... what?

Now please, go and pick up your toys.

 

[Dan26]

And what do you say to the statistics coming out of the VFL regarding margins in finals with their "not a" wildcard system?

The data suggests having more teams is creating more lopsided results as the finals progress.

This is not proof of anything. It's a small sample size over only a couple of seasons

Why do 50% of teams deserve/have to be in the finals? You keep banging on about this but haven't actually explained why this needs to be the case,

Because the AFL, in addition to being in the sporting industry is also in the entertainment industry, like it or not. There are TV rights worth billions at stake. Minimizing dead rubbers and increasing fan engagement are vitally important. Why in the hell would you want MORE dead rubbers?

50% is about the right number of finalists, because it strikes the perfect balance, between minimizing dead rubbers and making the finals. When it was a 16-team league, the AFL had 50% making the finals and most people would suggest that was close to perfect.

We are soon moving to 19 teams, and 50% of that is 9.5. Well, obviously you can't have 9.5 teams, so you go to ten. That's essentially the same as 8 in the 16 team comp.

It's also important to look at the mathematical probabilities. 10th is not the same as first. Yes 10th makes the finals, but they only have a 3.125% chance of winning the flag (up from zero, so it hasn't increased by much). 10th are not "rewarded" very much. There are three sets of mathematical probabilities (four if you include the 8 teams on zero percent), which is a greater spread of probabilities than under the final 8.

1st - 18.75%
2nd - 18.75%
3rd - 18.75%
4th - 18.75%
5th - 6.25%
6th - 6.25%
7th - 3.125%
8th - 3.125%
9th - 3.125%
10th - 3.125%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%
15th - 0%
16th - 0%
17th - 0%
18th - 0%

So, you really think that's unfair? 7th and 8th decrease their probability by a "massive" 3.125% going from 6.25 to 3.125%

And 9th and 10th have increased their chances from 0% to a whopping 3.125% Wow.... big change. NOT

 

[joe444]

Permit me to retort

It does get rid of the bye, and replaces it with additional football. Just getting rid of the bye moves your football free weekend from late August to mid March.

I didn't mention the 9th/10th stuff, but it is hardly better than 7th/8th, or for that matter, 5th/6th. Elimination finals under he current final 8 system have two flags from 26 seasons, and that percentage lessens when you add the old final eight system.

Any final is meaningful footy. I can understand why extra non-Geelong games (who always make finals under the old system anyway) would represent meaninglessness.

The wildcard system moves the bye benefit from "everyone in finals equally" to "the six best performed teams in the home and away season". WIN

We're going to have 20 teams in the competition in the next ten years. Expanding to a top 10 is due.

Certainly a retort.

 

[joe444]

This is not proof of anything. It's a small sample size over only a couple of seasons



Because the AFL, in addition to being in the sporting industry is also in the entertainment industry, like it or not. There are TV rights worth billions at stake. Minimizing dead rubbers and increasing fan engagement are vitally important. Why in the hell would you want MORE dead rubbers?

50% is about the right number of finalists, because it strikes the perfect balance, between minimizing dead rubbers and making the finals. When it was a 16-team league, the AFL had 50% making the finals and most people would suggest that was close to perfect.

We are soon moving to 19 teams, and 50% of that is 9.5. Well, obviously you can't have 9.5 teams, so you go to ten. That's essentially the same as 8 in the 16 team comp.

It's also important to look at the mathematical probabilities. 10th is not the same as first. Yes 10th makes the finals, but they only have a 3.125% chance of winning the flag (up from zero, so it hasn't increased by much). 10th are not "rewarded" very much. There are three sets of mathematical probabilities (four if you include the 8 teams on zero percent), which is a greater spread of probabilities than under the final 8.

1st - 18.75%
2nd - 18.75%
3rd - 18.75%
4th - 18.75%
5th - 6.25%
6th - 6.25%
7th - 3.125%
8th - 3.125%
9th - 3.125%
10th - 3.125%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%
15th - 0%
16th - 0%
17th - 0%
18th - 0%

So, you really think that's unfair? 7th and 8th decrease their probability by a "massive" 3.125% going from 6.25 to 3.125%

And 9th and 10th have increased their chances from 0% to a whopping 3.125% Wow.... big change. NOT

Oh wow, we're in a really special category when we get to repeat our overlong answers, which have already been replied to, in full.

I'm still scratching my head. A join date of 2000 means you should be at least 40.

 

[mm23]

The point I am making is that increasing the probability of 9th and 10th from zero to 3.125% is hardly a "reward"

It's a small reward, yes, but a very small one. I mean, think about it. What people are sooking about is that 10th has gone from zero chance to a 1-in-32 chance. Big whoop.

It's only a 1/32 chance if all the teams are balanced. They aren't a team finishes 10th because they lost more games and are worse then the teams above them. Every finals game they play they don't have a 50% chance of winning, the odds of them winning the 5 in a row will be much worse then 1/32.

 

[Dan26]

What do you mean it's a small reward??? They go from zero chance at the flag, to at least a chance. That is infinitely greater than it was before, the reward is huge!

Oh, give me a break Dazzler

You think going from a zero percent chance toa 3.125% chance (or 1 in 32) is "huge" LOL. Yeah, okay buddy. It's gone from zero to not much. Big whoop.

Look at how the rewards are staggered below. 9th and 10th with that "massive" increase from zero to 3.125%. However will the fans cope with such massive increased probabilities of winning the flag.

1st - 18.75%
2nd - 18.75%
3rd - 18.75%
4th - 18.75%
5th - 6.25%
6th - 6.25%
7th - 3.125%
8th - 3.125%
9th - 3.125%
10th - 3.125%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%
15th - 0%
16th - 0%
17th - 0%
18th - 0%

 

[joe444]

Why can't we have a final 12?

It's only a 1/32 chance if all the teams are balanced. They aren't a team finishes 10th because they lost more games and are worse then the teams above them. Every finals game they play they don't have a 50% chance of winning, the odds of them winning will be much lower then 1/32.

So why not have a Final 14?

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

The AFL hasn’t brought in a top ten. They have reduced it to a top six. No team will ever win the flag from 7-10th spot.

 

[joe444]

Oh, give me a break Dazzler

You think going from a zero percent chance toa 3.125% chance (or 1 in 32) is "huge" LOL. Yeah, okay buddy. It's gone from zero to not much. Big whoop.

Look at how the rewards are staggered below. 9th and 10th with that "massive" increase from zero to 3.125%. However will the fans cope with such massive increased probabilities of winning the flag.

1st - 18.75%
2nd - 18.75%
3rd - 18.75%
4th - 18.75%
5th - 6.25%
6th - 6.25%
7th - 3.125%
8th - 3.125%
9th - 3.125%
10th - 3.125%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%
15th - 0%
16th - 0%
17th - 0%
18th - 0%

Where are these numbers coming from, Dan?

 

[mm23]

Why can't we have a final 12?

So why not have a Final 14?

If everyone makes finals then why bother with the season? Better to rest players, lose games and be fresh for finals.

 

[Carn The Berries]

Oh, give me a break Dazzler

You think going from a zero percent chance toa 3.125% chance (or 1 in 32) is "huge" LOL. Yeah, okay buddy. It's gone from zero to not much. Big whoop.

Look at how the rewards are staggered below. 9th and 10th with that "massive" increase from zero to 3.125%. However will the fans cope with such massive increased probabilities of winning the flag.

1st - 18.75%
2nd - 18.75%
3rd - 18.75%
4th - 18.75%
5th - 6.25%
6th - 6.25%
7th - 3.125%
8th - 3.125%
9th - 3.125%
10th - 3.125%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%
13th - 0%
14th - 0%
15th - 0%
16th - 0%
17th - 0%
18th - 0%

This is the fourth time I've seen this now and it still proves exactly SFA...

You mentioned the VFL is a small sample size. While that may be the case, it's the only empirical evidence available, and it would suggest it has added nothing.

The name alone tells you the AFL aren't doing this for any sort of equity reasons.

 

[Carn The Berries]

Where are these numbers coming from, Dan?

Oh dear lord, please don't give this poster a reason to talk more about this table that has been posted multiple times already.

 

[Dan26]

Oh wow, we're in a really special category when we get to repeat our overlong answers, which have already been replied to, in full.

I'm still scratching my head. A join date of 2000 means you should be at least 40.

None of your argument stack up. You havn't bothered to analyse, (or understand) any of the mathematics of the system. Or even tried to understand it. You can gather, I assume, that I have done a lot of homework with this sort of stuff. It's right in my wheelhouse.

You don't, or have not had the ability to understand the idea that "rewarding mediocrity" is a flawed narrative, that fails to take into account the staggered rewards throughout the finals system and you fail to understand that increasing your chance from zero to 3.125%, whilst a reward, is extremely minor.

You just parrot regressive talking points such as "leave the game alone" none of which makes sense in a rapidly evolving competition which has increased from 16 to 19 teams. You're probably not old enough to remember, but this EXACT discussion took place when the final 8 came in with the same "rewarding mediocrity" arguments. Give the regressives one year, and none of them were talking about it.

My advice is give it a chance.

 

[Cyclops]

Stupid half round in March
Stupid last touch OOB rule
Stupid wildcard finals
My bullshit bingo card overfloweth.
Multiball powershots when?

 

[Dan26]

Where are these numbers coming from, Dan?

They are the mathematical probabilites of winning the premiership., assuming all matches are a 50-50 chance. For example winning 5 knockout finals in a row is 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 3.125%

If you're interested, name a finals system and I can supply what they are for that particular finals system.