AFL Marsh Series 2020

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Keystone agony

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 15, 2011
15,604
4,395
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
Couldn't see a thread

I'm on the doggies tonight

1u Dogs -5.5 @1.89 half time

North without: Higgins, Ziebell, Tarrant, Ben Brown, Polec and LDU (Plus Goldy and Cunnington have been picked for All stars game)

WBD without: Wood, Suckling, J.Bruce and T.English (Bont and MacRae picked in All stars)
 

benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
764
463
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Fremantle
Agree -5.5 is a good bet. Teams i think will be copying Richmond a bit so wouldn't be surprised to see some big scores this series due to faster play. but 188.5 total at the moment is quite high.
 

Atavistic

Premiership Player
Jan 22, 2008
4,954
3,593
Hobart
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Team Coco
Sportsbet had Lloyd@9 for 3+ goals and Dickson@11 for 3+ last night, so I got on those. Dickson still at 7. Not sure if that's value for him.


Also a tiny bet on Zurhaar 4+ into Dickson 4+@700.
 

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Atavistic

Premiership Player
Jan 22, 2008
4,954
3,593
Hobart
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Team Coco
Thoughts on McAdam and Stengle tomorrow? McAdam 4.50 for 2 goals and 17 for 3 goals. Stengle $6 for 2 goals and $23 for 3. Both will be keen to kick a few, you'd think, as they'll want to cement their spot in the seniors.
 

Keystone agony

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 15, 2011
15,604
4,395
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
Thoughts on McAdam and Stengle tomorrow? McAdam 4.50 for 2 goals and 17 for 3 goals. Stengle $6 for 2 goals and $23 for 3. Both will be keen to kick a few, you'd think, as they'll want to cement their spot in the seniors.
Yeh I quite like it. Dees have a very strong side compared to crows though.

But did like Stengle at 1.83 AGS
 

Keystone agony

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 15, 2011
15,604
4,395
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
I'm going to give GC a chance

0.5u. Each
GC win @4.5 (b366)
GC +27.5 @1.91 (b365)

GC missing Witts, Harbrow, R.Thompson, Hanley, Miles, W.Powell (Witts, Harbrow and Hanley only big ones)


Cats missing:
M.Oconnor, Duncan, J.Steven, J.Selwood, Cockatoo, Menegola, Parfitt, Dahlhaus, J.Henry, Ablett (doubt plays), (10)
T.Stewart (Done little PS plays a half max)
Dangerfield, Blic and Tuohy - play All Stars 6 days time

Also might target 2nd half when those last 3 are rested
 

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juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
21,152
26,826
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
New York Jets
I don't touch preseason games but I can see value in the Bushfire game tonight.

Thinking Victoria will win, but either way it will be close and high scoring, with an emphasis on both and probably not much defensive pressure. I also doubt it's a game where one side is going to be coached or mentally want to barrel the opposition, so a couple of bets I'm looking at and will decide closer to the time:

Either team by 15 or less: $3.20 @ Neds
This seems really good to me, you get the insurance with both teams covered, and a healthy margin for a game where the spectacle is more important than the result.

Victoria 1-39: $2.60 @ Neds/Ladbrokes
This is a game where I think a less <39 point is guaranteed no matter who you back. Neither team is going to steamroll the other one here in a charity game. I'm leaning toward Vic so I may take this outright or I might hedge and take:

Option 2:
Vic 1-39: $2.60 at Neds
All Stars 1-39: $3.10 at Ladbrokes

I don't see either team winning by 40+, so that's a pretty safe bet there to lock in a profit
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
3,694
4,587
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
I don't touch preseason games but I can see value in the Bushfire game tonight.

Thinking Victoria will win, but either way it will be close and high scoring, with an emphasis on both and probably not much defensive pressure. I also doubt it's a game where one side is going to be coached or mentally want to barrel the opposition, so a couple of bets I'm looking at and will decide closer to the time:

Either team by 15 or less: $3.20 @ Neds
This seems really good to me, you get the insurance with both teams covered, and a healthy margin for a game where the spectacle is more important than the result.

Victoria 1-39: $2.60 @ Neds/Ladbrokes
This is a game where I think a less <39 point is guaranteed no matter who you back. Neither team is going to steamroll the other one here in a charity game. I'm leaning toward Vic so I may take this outright or I might hedge and take:

Option 2:
Vic 1-39: $2.60 at Neds
All Stars 1-39: $3.10 at Ladbrokes

I don't see either team winning by 40+, so that's a pretty safe bet there to lock in a profit
I like your thinking. agreed.
I was hoping to multi goal-scorer's, but it cant be done... they definitely 'know', total is 226.5 on B365
Papley AGS $1.50 TAB is good. short odds but I think it should be close to $1.10.
 

juss

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 23, 2009
21,152
26,826
Melbourne
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
New York Jets
I like your thinking. agreed.
I was hoping to multi goal-scorer's, but it cant be done... they definitely 'know', total is 226.5 on B365
Papley AGS $1.50 TAB is good. short odds but I think it should be close to $1.10.
I reckon most of the set forwards will score a goal tonight, will be that sort of game.

I ended up taking 1x on VIC 1-39 at $2.60 and 1x on All Stars 1-39 at$3.20

I had a 1x bonus bet that I also put on VIC 1-39.

total outlay only 2x due to the free bet. Given it's a charity match I'd be very surprised if I dont make money tonight, I only lose if one team smashes the other.
 

pendlebury_10

All Australian
Apr 10, 2008
837
622
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Stars
I don't touch preseason games but I can see value in the Bushfire game tonight.

Thinking Victoria will win, but either way it will be close and high scoring, with an emphasis on both and probably not much defensive pressure. I also doubt it's a game where one side is going to be coached or mentally want to barrel the opposition, so a couple of bets I'm looking at and will decide closer to the time:

Either team by 15 or less: $3.20 @ Neds
This seems really good to me, you get the insurance with both teams covered, and a healthy margin for a game where the spectacle is more important than the result.

Victoria 1-39: $2.60 @ Neds/Ladbrokes
This is a game where I think a less <39 point is guaranteed no matter who you back. Neither team is going to steamroll the other one here in a charity game. I'm leaning toward Vic so I may take this outright or I might hedge and take:

Option 2:
Vic 1-39: $2.60 at Neds
All Stars 1-39: $3.10 at Ladbrokes

I don't see either team winning by 40+, so that's a pretty safe bet there to lock in a profit
I also like the 'Wire to Wire' market - $2.10 for any other result, that being the same team doesn't lead at the end of every quarter.
I think it will be a close fought, topsy-turvy affair.
 

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