AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

[RedV3x]

I suggest many have made the claim is you go back through the posts.

I must commend you for getting this thread back on track and revive the question just how well is the AFL doing in overtaking the NRL in Qld. Personally I would have insisted on a neutrally framed question but I'm not a mod and the present mod is perfectly equipped to controll such discussions.
I have seen many publications that suggest that the AFL is indeed overtaking NRL in Queensland but sadly they don't fit your definition of being of being "independent" . The AFL surely isn't independent as it's Australia's leading professional sport.
The mere fact that people can ask "is AFL overtaking NRL in Queensland" must be sufficiently worrying to some as to cause alarm and trepidation, because if the AFL does overtake NRL in Queensland - where does that leave the NRL?
Well, at least they wont have to change their name because NRL will once again stand for NSW RL

 

[The_Wookie]

I suggest many have made the claim is you go back through the posts.
Anyway lets be happy that anybody in the future here will post a link to back up any claim, and just not hopefull thinking.
Enjoy the rest of the day

Links are not required to have the discussion - and are not required for Bigfooty - or indeed almost any other forum in existence. And getting independent confirmation of any data is difficult since most data is published by sporting bodies themselves, or its survey data which is of limited use.

 

[The_Wookie]

The Question Roy Morgan has asked has been the same the whole time: What one AFL team do you support

 

[RedV3x]

The Question Roy Morgan has asked has been the same the whole time: What one AFL team do you support

I love Roy Morgan. Who can argue with his in depth surveys.

"The Sydney Swans have topped the annual Roy Morgan AFL supporter ladder for a 20th straight year with 1,297,000 supporters. The Swans are over 300,000 ahead of Grand Finalist the Brisbane Lions with 954,000 supporters according to the 2025 annual Roy Morgan AFL club supporters survey.

Not too shabby, for the two Northern expansion teams in the middle of so-called die-hard opposition to become Australia's top two supported AFL teams. Let's hear it for the Swans and Lions.

Honourable mention to GWS for topping North Melbourne.

 

[hampton]

afl doesn’t need to be “overtaking” nrl or any other sport to be making an impact in qld. Is Australian rules growing in popularity in qld? Ofcourse it is.

The word “overtaking” implies it’s about to surpass or has surpassed nrl in popularity. Of which there are no meaningful data points to suggest that it’s even close.

Participation has grown a lot so it looks like Australian rules football is catching on in qld. But afl the competition is nowhere close to popular as the nrl competition in qld.

I don’t see a need for afl to “overtake” the nrl to continue to grow popularity both at the participation level and engaging in the afl competition.

 

[RedV3x]

afl doesn’t need to be “overtaking” nrl or any other sport to be making an impact in qld. Is Australian rules growing in popularity in qld? Of course it is.

Australian Football is growing markedly in popularity in Queensland.

The word “overtaking” implies it’s about to surpass or has surpassed nrl in popularity.

Thanks for the English lesson but maybe you could use that energy to capitalize your sentences.

Of which there are no meaningful data points to suggest that it’s even close.

except you yourself pointed one significant data point out.

afl the competition is nowhere close to popular as the nrl competition in qld.

there are no meaningful data points to suggest that the case

I don’t see a need for afl to “overtake” the nrl to continue to grow popularity both at the participation level and engaging in the afl competition.

I don’t see a need for afl to “overtake” the nrl but it sure is fun to see it happening. to see Australian Football continue to grow in popularity both at the participation level and engaging in the AFL competition.

 

[hampton]

I don’t see a need for afl to “overtake” the nrl but it sure is fun to see it happening. to see Australian Football continue to grow in popularity both at the participation level and engaging in the AFL competition.

As I said overtake means it’s about to surpass or has surpassed the nrl in popularity of which theres no metrics to suggest its close - crowds, tv viewers, social media, pay tv, general social fabric, etc all point to nrl still being far ahead. But that’s to be expected in a state with a rich history of rugby league.

And it’s totally fine that afl is not overtaking the nrl it’s still gaining support and becoming a well supported sport in the state.

To continue to grow it needs to convince rugby league fans to also support and watch afl. The afl overtaking/taking over bru-ha is exactly what turns fans off.

 

[Bjo187]

As I said overtake means it’s about to surpass or has surpassed the nrl in popularity of which theres no metrics to suggest its close - crowds, tv viewers, social media, pay tv, general social fabric, etc all point to nrl still being far ahead. But that’s to be expected in a state with a rich history of rugby league.

And it’s totally fine that afl is not overtaking the nrl it’s still gaining support and becoming a well supported sport in the state.

To continue to grow it needs to convince rugby league fans to also support and watch afl. The afl overtaking/taking over bru-ha is exactly what turns fans off.

This thread was always about 'what would it take for the afl to overtake nrl...', we know it sets off certain users, but the point of it was, what would it take to do this and when, if ever.

In fact, since the year this thread was started in 2020, the game has made massive gains up there. I remember thinking at the time, what's gill doing putting the season in QLD, when he could do it in footy mad Perth. It shows why he was such a good CEO though, it turbo charged growth and the NRL copied it the following year to pull back some ground.

As Tony Sheppard said, Peter Vlandy's told him personally that the reason for the Dolphins was because they were worried about the AFL growth in QLD. They sat on a board together and were friends. Obviously there's still a decent way to go, but I'm sure not even the AFL thought the growth would be as good as it has been in the past 5 years. The suns haven't even boomed yet either.

 

[RedV3x]

As I said overtake means it’s about to surpass or has surpassed the nrl in popularity of which theres no metrics to suggest its close -

You yourself suggested participation. There are others but you're not really open to debate.

And it’s totally fine that afl is not overtaking the nrl

And it’s totally fine that AFL is overtaking the nrl

it’s still gaining support and becoming a well supported sport in the state.

Yes Australian Football, the AFL and not forgetting the AFLW are all doing very nicely.

To continue to grow it needs to convince rugby league fans to also support and watch afl.

Absolutely not.

To continue to grow it needs to demonstrate that watching AFL is a great experience
and playing Australian Football is a great experience.
Queenslanders are getting passionate about Australian Football just like everybody else.

 

[hampton]

This thread was always about 'what would it take for the afl to overtake nrl...', we know it sets off certain users, but the point of it was, what would it take to do this and when, if ever.

In fact, since the year this thread was started in 2020, the game has made massive gains up there. I remember thinking at the time, what's gill doing putting the season in QLD, when he could do it in footy mad Perth. It shows why he was such a good CEO though, it turbo charged growth and the NRL copied it the following year to pull back some ground.

As Tony Sheppard said, Peter Vlandy's told him personally that the reason for the Dolphins was because they were worried about the AFL growth in QLD. They sat on a board together and were friends. Obviously there's still a decent way to go, but I'm sure not even the AFL thought the growth would be as good as it has been in the past 5 years. The suns haven't even boomed yet either.

Yeah the game is growing in qld, but hardly surpassing. The dolphins or a 2nd Brisbane nrl team has been in demand by qrl for many years well before Peter vlandys ever came into the picture. But it was blocked by Broncos, which PVL finally broke the back of. And since the dolphins the broncos instantly grew further in popularity which shows that there was no threat to the broncos.

This differs for example when the suns and gws were added and saw a dip in crowds etc for the lions and swans, because they took from the existing support bases.

Brisbane could easily support a 3rd and 4th Brisbane nrl team if it happened.

I think one day qld can support a 3rd afl team with the continued growth as maybe team 22 in the afl.

But I don’t think afl will ever surpass or come close to surpassing the nrl in qld. It’s a bit like debating what would it take for the nrl to surpass popularity of afl in Victoria because now we’ve seen a large increase in participation and tv viewership of rugby league in Melbourne over the past few years.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Cmarsh what is the source for your claim that "there was actually more net migration from Queenslanders into Victoria this year"?

 

[RedV3x]

Yeah the game is growing in qld,

You can keep saying that as many times as you like but we already
know just how good the situation is in Queensland w.r.t. Australian Football so you can give it rest.

I think one day qld can support a 3rd afl team

Yes, the football progress is so rapid that Queensland football could overtake W.A.soon.

When i look back at what people said in the 1980s - it's all been proved wrong.
There is AFL in Sydney and not only that Sydney is supposedly the most popular team in Australia now.
There is AFL in Brisbane and not only that Brisbane has been highly successful on and off the field.
And there is a second AFL side in Queensland and there is a second AFL side in Sydney
and not only that, these two new sides are about to take off.

 

[hampton]

Cmarsh what is the source for your claim that "there was actually more net migration from Queenslanders into Victoria this year"?

This is false and sources are easily found on a quick google. QLD gets many more migrants from Victoria than the other way around. A lot of these become Suns and Lions supporters.

 

[hampton]

You can keep saying that as many times as you like but we already
know just how good the situation is in Queensland w.r.t. Australian Football so you can give it rest.



Yes, the football progress is so rapid that Queensland football could overtake W.A.soon.

When i look back at what people said in the 1980s - it's all been proved wrong.
There is AFL in Sydney and not only that Sydney is supposedly the most popular team in Australia now.
There is AFL in Brisbane and not only that Brisbane has been highly successful on and off the field.
And there is a second AFL side in Queensland and there is a second AFL side in Sydney
and not only that, these two new sides are about to take off.

im a swans fan but not that naive to think the swans are the most well supported football club in Australia. If you surveyed randoms on the street in Sydney and asked them what their favourite afl team is they’ll say the swans, even if they never watched a game of afl in their life.

Most of the rest of your post is the usual hyperbole filled stories. Yes qld could overtake wa in afl participation for sure. QLD also has double the population of WA.

 

[RedV3x]

This is false and sources are easily found on a quick google.

AI says "
Yes, there has been a reversal in net migration, with Victoria experiencing a net inflow of 440 interstate migrants in the March 2025 quarter, while Queensland recorded its lowest net gain since 2016. This indicates a net movement of people from Queensland to Victoria, likely due to differing property market performance, with South East Queensland's vacant land prices exceeding Melbourne's for the first time on record."

It gives these sources

Regional Australia Institute:
Their "Regional Movers Index" for the March 2025 quarter indicates that regional Victoria has experienced a net inflow of people, while regional Queensland's share of net migration has decreased. This is a notable change compared to a year earlier.

MacroBusiness reports that Queensland's housing affordability issues are a significant driver for this potential migration shift. Research shows that the income required to buy a typical home in Queensland has increased substantially since the start of the pandemic, making it harder for residents to afford property there. This could be a push factor for Queenslanders to move to areas in Victoria that may offer more affordable options or better housing market conditions.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides data on internal migration, though its latest reports may not have the most up-to-date figures on the current year's trends.

Reports from organizations like Real Estate and the Queensland Government Statistician's Office also shed light on migration drivers, including housing and economic factors.

Also
Recent news reports from publications like The Sydney Morning Herald, The Courier Mail, and Yahoo News Australia and Oberon Review have highlighted a shift in population movement, with Victoria experiencing a net increase in interstate migration for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. This is occurring as Queensland's net interstate migration has significantly slowed, making Victoria more attractive to movers due to its own property market dynamics.

 

[hampton]

AI says "
Yes, there has been a reversal in net migration, with Victoria experiencing a net inflow of 440 interstate migrants in the March 2025 quarter, while Queensland recorded its lowest net gain since 2016. This indicates a net movement of people from Queensland to Victoria, likely due to differing property market performance, with South East Queensland's vacant land prices exceeding Melbourne's for the first time on record."

It gives these sources

Regional Australia Institute:
Their "Regional Movers Index" for the March 2025 quarter indicates that regional Victoria has experienced a net inflow of people, while regional Queensland's share of net migration has decreased. This is a notable change compared to a year earlier.

MacroBusiness reports that Queensland's housing affordability issues are a significant driver for this potential migration shift. Research shows that the income required to buy a typical home in Queensland has increased substantially since the start of the pandemic, making it harder for residents to afford property there. This could be a push factor for Queenslanders to move to areas in Victoria that may offer more affordable options or better housing market conditions.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides data on internal migration, though its latest reports may not have the most up-to-date figures on the current year's trends.

Reports from organizations like Real Estate and the Queensland Government Statistician's Office also shed light on migration drivers, including housing and economic factors.

Are you trying to prove that there’s more migration from QLD to Victoria really? The above you posted clearly says that migration from Victoria to qld has decreased, not that there’s less migration.

I mean I could easily post a link from google but it’s clearly evident that there’s significantly more migration from Victoria to qld, even though there’s a bigger population in Victoria.

Also how does it make sense that qlders move to Victoria because of house prices when clearly Victoria is generally more expensive than qld?

 

[threenewpadlocks]

AI says "
Yes, there has been a reversal in net migration, with Victoria experiencing a net inflow of 440 interstate migrants in the March 2025 quarter, while Queensland recorded its lowest net gain since 2016. This indicates a net movement of people from Queensland to Victoria, likely due to differing property market performance, with South East Queensland's vacant land prices exceeding Melbourne's for the first time on record."

It's AI hallucinating logic bolded, because even with the sources provided and the sentences it writes, you cannot come up to the logical conclusion. I can't believe you trust it.

Nothing in the provided sources can lead you to the logical conclusion that there's a net flow of people from Queensland to Victoria.

All it is stating that Victoria has a small net inflow from all other of the 7 states and territories, and that Queensland's net inflow, while remaining the largest in the country, is smaller than it has been since 2016.

Almost certainly, just comparing Vic, NSW and Queensland, there's a net outflow of NSW -> Vic, and a net outflow of Vic -> Queensland, roughly cancelling each other out (if we assume the net flows of the Vic -> other 5 state/territories to also be about 0).

Remember this is a tool that couldn't count the number of r's in strawberry. It has flaws.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

It's AI hallucinating logic bolded, because even with the sources provided and the sentences it writes, you cannot come up to the logical conclusion. I can't believe you trust it.

Nothing in the provided sources can lead you to the logical conclusion that there's a net flow of people from Queensland to Victoria.

All it is stating that Victoria has a small net inflow from all other of the 7 states and territories, and that Queensland's net inflow, while remaining the largest in the country, is smaller than it has been since 2016.

Almost certainly, just comparing Vic, NSW and Queensland, there's a net outflow of NSW -> Vic, and a net outflow of Vic -> Queensland, roughly cancelling each other out (if we assume the net flows of the Vic -> other 5 state/territories to also be about 0).

I agree, there's nothing there suggesting the net flow between the two is from Queensland to Victoria. The growth in Queensland from interstate migration may be slower tag before, but it's still positive, and still bigger than Victoria's growth from interstate migration.

Remember this is a tool that couldn't count the number of r's in strawberry. It has flaws.

No kidding. AI told me this yesterday:

 

[RedV3x]

It has flaws.

AI certainly has flaws especially over little issues
but AI simply regurgitates information that is already available.
I asked AI the question and asked for sources.
AI has found multiple sources for this issue, an issue which is pretty insignificant anyway,
so believe what you want to believe.

 

[Kedron lions]

AI says "
Yes, there has been a reversal in net migration, with Victoria experiencing a net inflow of 440 interstate migrants in the March 2025 quarter, while Queensland recorded its lowest net gain since 2016. This indicates a net movement of people from Queensland to Victoria, likely due to differing property market performance, with South East Queensland's vacant land prices exceeding Melbourne's for the first time on record."

Because for once it's become easier for someone to live in Melbourne than Brisbane. That was always a major draw for vics and now its gone it is less enticing than before.

 

[dave10]

afl doesn’t need to be “overtaking” nrl or any other sport to be making an impact in qld. Is Australian rules growing in popularity in qld? Ofcourse it is.

The word “overtaking” implies it’s about to surpass or has surpassed nrl in popularity. Of which there are no meaningful data points to suggest that it’s even close.

Participation has grown a lot so it looks like Australian rules football is catching on in qld. But afl the competition is nowhere close to popular as the nrl competition in qld.

I don’t see a need for afl to “overtake” the nrl to continue to grow popularity both at the participation level and engaging in the afl competition.

I have no reason to be biased either way. That said…. I’m on the Gold Coast and i can assure you AFL is growing very strongly in this city / region. It wouldn’t be unreasonably to say the AFL would be reasonably close to level with rugby league on the Gold Coast. Whilst it’s qualitative, I’d estimate a reasonable guess at the split of codes would be 40% AFL / 60% Rugby League… And AFL closing the gap progressively. A decade ago AFL wouldn’t have been close to that support.

In Brisbane it’s more a league town with dominance still evident. AFL is now a serious competitor in a competitive landscape however, unlike a decade ago.

 

[kalex6251]

craig bellamy is being aggressively pursued by gold coast titans .... says a lot

 

[Fire]

AI says "
Yes, there has been a reversal in net migration, with Victoria experiencing a net inflow of 440 interstate migrants in the March 2025 quarter, while Queensland recorded its lowest net gain since 2016. This indicates a net movement of people from Queensland to Victoria, likely due to differing property market performance, with South East Queensland's vacant land prices exceeding Melbourne's for the first time on record."

It gives these sources

Regional Australia Institute:
Their "Regional Movers Index" for the March 2025 quarter indicates that regional Victoria has experienced a net inflow of people, while regional Queensland's share of net migration has decreased. This is a notable change compared to a year earlier.

MacroBusiness reports that Queensland's housing affordability issues are a significant driver for this potential migration shift. Research shows that the income required to buy a typical home in Queensland has increased substantially since the start of the pandemic, making it harder for residents to afford property there. This could be a push factor for Queenslanders to move to areas in Victoria that may offer more affordable options or better housing market conditions.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides data on internal migration, though its latest reports may not have the most up-to-date figures on the current year's trends.

Reports from organizations like Real Estate and the Queensland Government Statistician's Office also shed light on migration drivers, including housing and economic factors.

Also
Recent news reports from publications like The Sydney Morning Herald, The Courier Mail, and Yahoo News Australia and Oberon Review have highlighted a shift in population movement, with Victoria experiencing a net increase in interstate migration for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. This is occurring as Queensland's net interstate migration has significantly slowed, making Victoria more attractive to movers due to its own property market dynamics.

Did you seriously paste a paragraph of slop and expect people to read it? If I wanted to read the opinions of bots, I'd go browse twitter.

Use AI as a jumping off point, get it's sources and check them out yourself and then link those if you think it supports your argument. Don't just paste hallucinated and, if it's from grok, politically influenced garbage that, by the way, doesn't even actually say that there's a net migration from QLD to VIC as you likley prompted. Because it's just an advanced text predictor.

These forums need an AI ban.

 

[2 eazy]

Is there an independent link that can be posted here that disproves that the AFL is overtaking the NRL in Queensland?

Going down a rabbit hole talking like that.

 

[RedV3x]

Did you seriously paste a paragraph of slop and expect people to read it?

You came out of football hibernation to post that ?
Do you seriously think that pasting AI is the worst thing in this thread?